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Fast Start: The numbers say to bet on Josh Heupel and Tennessee in the first half

IMG_3593by: Grant Ramey09/19/24GrantRamey
Josh Heupel
(Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK) Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel and Tennessee offensive lineman John Campbell Jr. (74) celebrate after the win over Texas A&M in an NCAA college football game between on Saturday, October 14, 2023 in Knoxville, Tenn.

If you’re betting on No. 6 Tennessee at No. 15 Oklahoma Saturday night, the safest bet is to take the Vols against the spread in the first half. According to The Action Network, Josh Heupel in six years as a head coach is 43-17-2 against the spread in the first half.

Heupel is ranked as the No. 1 most profitable head coach against the spread in the first half out of 305 coaches over the last six seasons. His record includes a 22-7-1 mark against the first-half spread away from home. 

No. 6 Tennessee (3-0) and No. 15 Oklahoma (3-0) on Saturday night are scheduled for a 7:30 Eastern Time start on ABC at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. ESPN’s College GameDay will broadcast live from Norman Saturday morning.

Tennessee covering spreads by an average of 27.3 points per game

Tennessee is 3-0 against the spread in the first half this season. The Vols covered a 24.5-point spread against Chattanooga, leading 45-0 at halftime, a 4.5-point spread against North Carolina State, leading 20-3 at the half, and a 33.5-point spread against Kent State, leading 65-0 at the break.

Tennessee is 3-0 against the spread this season, covering in the 69-3 win over Chattanooga (-38.5), in the 51-10 win over North Carolina State (-8.5) and in the 71-0 win over Kent State (-49).

Oklahoma is 2-1 against the spread, covering in the 51-3 win over Temple (-42.5) on August 30 and the 34-19 win over Tulane (-12.5) last week, but failing to cover in the 16-12 win over Houston (-27.5).

Tennessee was a 5.5-point underdog for the Oklahoma game when early lines were released back in May. But the Vols were listed last week as a 3.5-point favorite with the line moving to 7.5 by Sunday morning. 

Oklahoma rarely an underdog at home

Oklahoma hasn’t been a touchdown underdog at home since 1998 and a ranked Oklahoma team hasn’t been a touchdown underdog at home since 1978.

The Sooners haven’t been an underdog of any kind at home since 2016, when Ohio State won 45-24 as a 1.5-point favorite. 

Oklahoma beat Texas Tech 20-17 as a touchdown underdog in 1998. Colorado was also a 4.0-point favorite in 1998, beating the Sooners 27-25. Texas A&M was a 3.5-point favorite at Oklahoma in 1999 and lost 51-6. 

Nebraska was a 2.5-point favorite at Oklahoma in 2000, losing 31-14 with the Sooners on their way to a perfect 13-0 record and the BCS national championship with All-American Josh Heupel at quarterback.

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