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ESPN's best bet for Tennessee Football this season: Over 8.5 wins

IMG_3593by: Grant Ramey08/13/25GrantRamey
Tennessee football fall camp intel

ESPN’s best bet for Tennessee Football this season is taking the over on the win total set at 8.5. ESPN this week listed the best bet for each team ranked in the Associated Press Preseason Top 25, which had the Vols at No. 24 on Monday afternoon.

“The Volunteers’ defense is legit,” ESPN’s Pamela Maldonado wrote, “one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional.”

Aguilar threw for 6,760 yards, 56 touchdowns and 24 interceptions over the last two seasons at Appalachian State. He transferred to UCLA in December, then left the Bruins after they signed Nico Iamaleava.

“While not a true dual-threat,” Maldonado wrote, “he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production.

“With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.”

Tennessee ranked No. 10 in ESPN College Football Power Index

Tennessee is not ranked in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early top 25, but the Vols are ranked 13th in ESPN’s updated SP+ projections. The Vols are ranked No. 7 on defense, No. 21 on special teams and No. 34 on offense in SP+ grades. 

ESPN’s first Football Power Index has Tennessee ranked No. 10. According to the FPI, the Vols have a 97.5% chance to win six or more games, a 4.2% to win the SEC and 38.5% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff. 

The preseason LBM Coaches Poll, which was released last Monday, had Tennessee at No. 18.

Tennessee opens 2025 season against Syracuse in Atlanta

The Syracuse game will be a Noon Eastern Time start on ABC at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The home opener against ETSU is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network+/ESPN+. The SEC opener against Georgia on September 13 at Neyland Stadium will be a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ABC.

UAB comes to Knoxville on September 20 in a 12:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network and the Vols go to Mississippi State on September 27 in the first SEC road game of the season. After an open date on October 4, the Vols host Arkansas (October 11) then go to Alabama (October 18) and Kentucky (October 25). 

In November the Vols host Oklahoma (November 1) and New Mexico State (November 15), go to Florida (November 22) and close the regular-season schedule at home against Vanderbilt (November 29).

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