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ESPN Preview: Tennessee could have 'best defense and worst offense yet in the Heupel era'

IMG_3593by: Grant Ramey07/26/25GrantRamey
josh heupel
Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tennessee is an SEC championship and College Football Playoff contender this season according to ESPN, even if the Vols are the sixth of six teams listed as conference title contenders in ESPN’s SEC preview. 

Alabama topped the list, ahead of Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss. 

“It feels like the Vols could end up with their best defense,” ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote in his SEC preview, “and worst offense yet in the (Josh) Heupel era.”

While going 10-3 and making it to the 12-team College Football Playoff last season, Tennessee finished No. 9 in ESPN’s SP+ ranking. The Vols were No. 23 in SP+ offense, No. 6 in SP+ defense and No. 16 on special teams. 

Tennessee ranked No. 13 in first SP+ ranking for 2025

ESPN’s SP+ offseason ranking update, the first for the 2025 season, has Tennessee at No. 13 overall, which is sixth in the SEC, behind No. 2 Alabama, No. 4 Georgia, No. 5 Texas, No. 9 LSU and No. 11 Ole Miss.

The Vols have an SP+ rating of 18.4 to start the season, ranked No. 34 on offense, No. 7 on defense and No. 21 on special teams. The average win total for Tennessee in the SP+ is 8.8, with the Vols ranked 24th in strength of schedule. 

Tennessee’s SEC win total average is 5.0, while the SP+ gives the Vols a 6.0% chance to win the league, a 7.7% chance to win 11 or more games and a 99.3% chance to win six or more games. 

The SP+ continuity rate for Tennessee is ranked No. 81 nationally, returning 51% of its production from last season. The Vols are ahead of only Texas (51%), Ole Miss (47%) and Georgia (46%) in the SEC.

Tennessee returns 39% of its production on offense and 63% of its production on defense. Returning Vols have combined to make 127 career starts while Tennessee’s incoming transfers have made 39 starts. 

Most notably, Tennessee lost starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava to the NCAA Transfer Portal and replaced him with former Appalachian State quarterback Joey Aguilar.

“Iamaleava was the far more highly touted recruit,” Connelly wrote, “but Aguilar, who transferred from Appalachian State to UCLA last winter, is a far better scrambler and takes far fewer sacks. (He also throws more picks.)”

The 20 redshirt freshmen on roster for the Vols is the highest total in the SEC, just ahead of Georgia’s 19. No other team has more than 14.

‘Opponents have slowly adjusted to Heupel’s high-speed offense’

Tennessee’s best teams under Heupel have had different approaches. The 2022 team that went 11-2 had the program’s best offense since 1940 while last season’s 10-3 playoff team had its best defense since 1999, according to ESPN.

“The 2025 Vols will likely also be defense-first,” Connelly wrote. “ … The offense was still solid in 2024, slipping only to 23rd in offensive SP+, but the big plays have definitely vanished through the years.”

Tennessee in 2022 had two plays of 80 or more yards, four of 70 or more and 11 of 60 or more. There were 19 plays of 50 or more yards, 36 plays of 40 or more yards and led all of college football with 53 plays covering 30 or more yards. 

Last season the Vols had plays of 50 yards or more, 14 plays of 40 yards or more and 24 plays of 30 or more. 

“Opponents have slowly adjusted to Heupel’s high-speed offense,” Connelly wrote, “and seem basically to be giving the Vols the Patrick Mahomes treatment at this point (let them have whatever they want close to the line of scrimmage and form a cloud in the back to prevent the huge gashes).”

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