ESPN projects Tennessee Football as a top-10 team over the next two seasons

Tennessee Football projects as a top-10 program nationally over the next two seasons, according to ESPN. Adam Rittenberg ranked all 68 Power 4 college football programs over the next two seasons, with the Vols coming in at No. 9. 

Texas was ranked No. 1, ahead of No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia, No. 4 Oregon and No. 5 Notre Dame. Also ahead of Tennessee was No. 6 Penn State, No. 7 Clemson and No. 8 LSU. Alabama was ranked No. 10. 

“The constant roster shuffling around the sport because of the portal made three-year projections less sensible,” Rittenberg wrote. “Instead, the rankings will examine the next two seasons — in this case, the 2025 and 2026 seasons — and function more as a snapshot of the landscape.”

Factors that made up the ranking were returning quarterbacks, likelihood of a multiyear quarterback, offensive and defensive lines outlooks, roster management, star power and coaching staff.

Tennessee ranked No. 10 in ESPN Football Power Index

Tennessee is ranked No. 10 in ESPN’s first Football Power Index update for the 2025 season. According to the FPI, the Vols have a 97.5% chance to win six or more games, a 4.2% to win the SEC and 38.5% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff. 

The new FPI has a projects Tennessee to go 9-3 — 8.7-3.4 is the exact prediction — with an 0.8% chance to go undefeated. The Vols have a 5.6% chance to make it to the national championship game and a 2.3% chance to win the title. 

Texas is ranked No. 1 in the new FPI, ahead of Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and Penn State in the top five. Oregon, Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Miami round out the top 10 just in front of Tennessee. 

Tennessee faces five opponents ranked in the FPI’s top 25: No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Alabama, No. 16 Oklahoma, No. 18 Florida, No. 22 Arkansas and No. 34 Kentucky. Three other opponents are ranked No. 62 or higher (No. 52 Mississippi State, No. 56 Vanderbilt and No. 62 Syracuse) and two teams ranked No. 115 or lower (No. 115 UAB and No. 135 New Mexico State).

The Vols finished at No. 9 in the 2024 Football Power Index after going 10-3 with a loss at Ohio State as a No. 9 seed in the first round of the College Football Playoff. 

Vols not ranked in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early Top 25

Tennessee is not ranked in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early top 25, but the Vols are ranked 13th in ESPN’s updated SP+ projections. The Vols are ranked No. 7 on defense, No. 21 on special teams and No. 34 on offense in SP+ grades. 

The SP+ score for Tennessee at No. 13 overall is 18.4. The Vols are had a 31.4 score on offense, ranked No. 34 overall, and a 13.0 score on defense, ranked No. 7 nationally. The special teams score was 0.2, ranked No. 21.

The SP+ preseason projections are based on returning production, recent recruiting and recent history.