A closer look at over/under win totals for Tennessee football's 2024 opponents

Tennessee football’s win total for 2024 is set at 9.5, according numbers released recently by FanDuel. Win totals have been set for Tennessee’s Power 5 opponents, too, with the Vols set to play North Carolina State in a neutral-site game in Charlotte before the start of the SEC grind.

Tennessee next season has home games against Chattanooga (Aug. 31), Kent State (Sept. 14), Florida (Oct. 12), Alabama (Oct. 19), Kentucky (Nov. 2), Mississippi State (Nov. 9), UTEP (Nov. 23) and Vanderbilt (Nov. 13), along with road games at Oklahoma (Sept. 21), at Arkansas (Oct. 5) and at Georgia (Nov. 16).

Here’s a look at the win totals that have been set for Tennessee’s Power 5 opponents next season:

Georgia: 10.5

Georgia back in January was the consensus No. 1 team in the first look-ahead rankings for next season. The Dawgs finished at No. 2 in ESPN’s FPI, No. 3 in the Coaches Poll and No. 4 in the AP Top 25. Alabama ended Georgia’s three-peat attempt in the SEC Championship game, with the Bulldogs having to settle for a 63-3 Orange Bowl win over Florida State. 

Alabama: 9.5

Alabama finished at No. 5 in both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll and were No. 6 in ESPN’s FPI. The Crimson Tide finished 12-2 after falling to Michigan in overtime in the Rose Bowl. Alabama plays at Tennessee on October 19, a week after the Vols host Florida at Neyland Stadium. 

North Carolina State: 8.5

North Carolina State finished at No. 21 in both the Associated Press Top 25 and USA Today Coaches Poll after going 9-4. The Wolfpack won five straight games to end the regular season, after a 4-3 start, but ended the year with a 28-19 loss to Kansas State in the PopTarts Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando on December 28. N.C. State finished at No. 37 in ESPN’s Football Power Index. 

Oklahoma: 7.5

Oklahoma finished at No. 15 in both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll after going 10-3 this season. The Sooners, who finished at No. 9 in ESPN’s FPI, started the season 7-0 including a win over Texas in the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, but then lost back-to-back games at Kansas and Oklahoma State. Oklahoma lost to Arizona in the Alamo Bowl, 38-24. Former Oklahoma offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby was hired as the new head coach at Mississippi State on November 26, after the Sooners finished third in scoring offense this season, averaging 43.2 points per game.

Arkansas: 5.5

Arkansas finished 4-8 last season with just a 1-7 SEC record under Sam Pittman. The two teams have played only 19 times dating back to 1907, with Tennessee winning 13 times. Arkansas has won three straight — the Hogs won 24-13 in Fayetteville during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, the last time the two teams met — and four of the last five, though, going back to a 31-14 win over the Vols in Fayetteville in 2006.

Kentucky: 5.5

Kentucky went 7-6 (3-5 SEC) last season. Tennessee has won ten of its last 12 games against Kentucky, dating back to 2012, including the 33-27 win in Lexington in October. The Wildcats won at Neyland Stadium in 2020, their first win in Knoxville since 1984, and in Lexington in 2011 and 2017. The win in 2011 snapped Tennessee’s streak of 26 straight wins in the series, which dates back to 1893. 

Florida: 5.5

Florida finished 5-7 last season with a 3-5 SEC record. The Vols lost a tough one in Gainesville in September, 29-16. Tennessee’s 38-33 win at Neyland Stadium the previous September snapped five-game losing streak in the series that dated back to the 38-28 win in Knoxville in 2016. 

Mississippi State: 4.5

Mississippi State won five games last season, before hiring Jeff Lebby away from Oklahoma. Tennessee is 29-16-1 in the all-time series against Mississippi State, dating back to 1907. The Vols have won 10 of the last 12, including a 20-10 win at Neyland Stadium in 2019, the most recent matchup.

Vanderbilt: 2.5

Vanderbilt won just two games last season and went 0-8 in the SEC, the league’s only winless team in conference play. Tennessee has won five straight in the series after Vanderbilt had a run of five wins in seven years between 2012 and 2018. The Vols won 22 straight between 1983 and 2004, before Vandy came to Knoxville and won 28-24 in 2005.