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No. 18 Tennessee opens as home favorite against No. 12 Vanderbilt

IMG_3593by: Grant Ramey3 hours agoGrantRamey
Nov 30, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers wide receiver Mike Matthews (10) runs the ball against the Vanderbilt Commodore during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
Nov 30, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers wide receiver Mike Matthews (10) runs the ball against the Vanderbilt Commodore during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Tennessee Football on Sunday opened as a 2.5-point home favorite for the regular-season finale against Vanderbilt on Saturday, according to numbers released by BetMGM. The total is set at 64.5.

The Vols won 31-11 at Florida Saturday night while Vanderbilt beat Kentucky 45-17 in Nashville.

Kickoff between Tennessee (8-3, 4-3 SEC) and Vanderbilt (9-2, 5-2) at Neyland Stadium is set for 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time start on ESPN.

The Vols are 5-6 against the spread this season, covering a 13.5-point spread against Syracuse, a 39.5-point spread against ETSU, as a 3.5-point underdog against Georgia, as an 8.5-point favorite at Kentucky and as a 4.5-point favorite at Florida.

Tennessee has failed to cover a 38.5-point spread against UAB, a 7.5-point spread at Mississippi State, a 10.5-point spread against Arkansas, an 8.5-point spread at Alabama, a 3.5-point spread against Oklahoma and a 42.5-point spread against New Mexico State.

Diego Pavia vs. Kentucky: 522 total yards, 6 total TDs

Tennessee won 31-11 at Florida Saturday night, after jumping out to a 31-0 lead at halftime. Vanderbilt beat Kentucky 45-10 Saturday afternoon in Nashville.

Joey Aguilar threw for 204 yards and a touchdown and the Vols ran for 248 yards and three touchdowns as a team in the win at Florida.

Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia accounted for 522 total yards and six total touchdowns in the 45-10 win over Kentucky. He passed for 484 yards and five touchdowns and ran for 48 yards and had one score on the ground. 

Tennessee leads Vanderbilt series 79-33-5

Vanderbilt entered the weekend with a 10% chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to the ESPN Playoff Predictor. The odds would go up to 33% should Vandy beat both Kentucky and Tennessee to end the regular season at 10-2. 

A loss to the Vols would drop Vandy to less than a 1% chance to make the playoff.

Vandy started the season 5-0 with home wins over Charleston Southern, Georgia State and Utah State, along with road wins at Virginia Tech and South Carolina. 

Alabama beat Vanderbilt 30-14 in Tuscaloosa on October 4, but the Dores have bounced back with three wins over their last four, beating LSU 31-24 and Missouri 17-10 before a 34-31 road loss at Texas, then the home win over Auburn.

The Vanderbilt series is Tennessee’s oldest, with its 119 games dating back to 1892. The Vols lead the series 79-33-5.

Vanderbilt won five of seven in the series between 2012 and 2018, after Tennessee won 28 of 29 from 1983 to 2011. The Vols won 22 straight between 1982 and 2004, before Vandy won 28-24 in Knoxville in 2005. Of Vandy’s 33 wins, 19 came before 1927.