Splain something to me Lucy

[bdgan]

How can PSU be favorites over Northwestern on the road Friday?

NW smoked Colorado 41-7 and they took Indiana to the wire (23-29) on the road last week.

 

[BCS PSU]

How can PSU be favorites over Northwestern on the road Friday?

NW smoked Colorado 41-7 and they took Indiana to the wire (23-29) on the road last week.

They shouldn't be, but the people who set these lines usually come pretty close to the final margin, which wasn't the case for last Saturday's game.

I actually think that it's a good thing that NU will playing their first game in their new stadium because they should be somewhat unfamiliar with it too.

 

[MtNittany]

Maybe Manske and Peoples are going to start.

 

[ShoreLion85V2]

If our starting QB plays like he did vs Wisconsin, we don’t have a devout nun’s prayer of winning that game. His reads were bad, his throws were bad, and even his run decisions, save 1, were bad. We simply cannot win games with that level of QB play. Impossible vs real competition.

 

[bdgan]

They shouldn't be, but the people who set these lines usually come pretty close to the final margin, which wasn't the case for last Saturday's game.

The "people" who set the line favored PSU by 7 pts. Since then the bettors have moved it down to 2.5.

 

[PSUFTG]

The "people" who set the line favored PSU by 7 pts. Since then the bettors have moved it down to 2.5.

Is that true? It was "7" AFTER the completion of last weekend's games??

I honestly don't know - but that is such a huge and rare swing.

 

[BCS PSU]

If our starting QB plays like he did vs Wisconsin, we don’t have a devout nun’s prayer of winning that game. His reads were bad, his throws were bad, and even his run decisions, save 1, were bad. We simply cannot win games with that level of QB play. Impossible vs real competition.

You mean you didn't like when he ran right into the middle of the pile and basically sacked himself on at least two occasions?

 

[Metal Mike]

The goal of setting the line is get money on both sides of the bet. The line is "best" when there are equal amounts of money on each side.

 

[Big_O]

If our starting QB plays like he did vs Wisconsin, we don’t have a devout nun’s prayer of winning that game. His reads were bad, his throws were bad, and even his run decisions, save 1, were bad. We simply cannot win games with that level of QB play. Impossible vs real competition.

He underthrew wide open receivers for TD’s that would have won the game. He made other poor decisions in the game as well, not something I would expect for an experienced 5th year senior.

 

[bdgan]

If our starting QB plays like he did vs Wisconsin, we don’t have a devout nun’s prayer of winning that game. His reads were bad, his throws were bad, and even his run decisions, save 1, were bad. We simply cannot win games with that level of QB play. Impossible vs real competition.

Saturday's game vs Wisconsin gave me ZERO optimism.

• Our two TDs both came off interceptions.
• Our 3rd interception was bear midfield and we had to punt.
• PSU's longest drive of the day was 36 yds.
• You could look at the INTs as a positive but they came because Joseph threw horrible passes, not because PSU was able to get much pressure. I'll give Zayas and Rojas credit for making good plays.
• Defense gave up a 75 yd and an 85 yd drive in the last 4 minutes.
• Punting was horrible.

I'm really having difficulty finding one thing to hang my hat on that would make me believe we can beat NW on Friday. But if we do we know USC has struggled and maybe Howard comes back for Michigan. I guess anything can happen but I'm not a believer right now.

 

[bdgan]

He underthrew wide open receivers for TD’s that would have won the game. He made other poor decisions in the game as well, not something I would expect for an experienced 5th year senior.

True but elite WRs/TEs show the physicality and athleticism to catch some of those underthrown balls (or draw a PI penalty).

 

[LionJim]

The goal of setting the line is get money on both sides of the bet. The line is "best" when there are equal amounts of money on each side.

It’s not complicated.

 

[bdgan]

Is that true? It was "7" AFTER the completion of last weekend's games??

College Football Game Odds with Spread, Moneyline, and More - ESPN

 

[PSUFTG]

Saturday's game vs Wisconsin gave me ZERO optimism.

• Our two TDs both came off interceptions.
• Our 3rd interception was bear midfield and we had to punt.
• PSU's longest drive of the day was 36 yds.
• You could look at the INTs as a positive but they came because Joseph threw horrible passes, not because PSU was able to get much pressure. I'll give Zayas and Rojas credit for making good plays.
• Defense gave up a 75 yd and an 85 yd drive in the last 4 minutes.
• Punting was horrible.

I'm really having difficulty finding one thing to hang my hat on that would make me believe we can beat NW on Friday. But if we do we know USC has struggled and maybe Howard comes back for Michigan. I guess anything can happen but I'm not a believer right now.

Hard to argue with any of that - aside from possible feeling it HAS to get better. It couldn't get worse - could it?


I will say that the key for NW has been the play of their QB (Chiles, who transferred in from MSU)
AND
The one thing PSU has shown, is they have CBs who can cover decent WRs. If they can take away NWs passing game, that would be a huge edge.

 

[bdgan]

The one thing PSU has shown, is they have CBs who can cover decent WRs. If they can take away NWs passing game, that would be a huge edge.

I had confidence in the DBs until I saw Wisconsin go 75 yds and 85 yds on their last two possiessions.

 

[fairgambit]

How can PSU be favorites over Northwestern on the road Friday?

NW smoked Colorado 41-7 and they took Indiana to the wire (23-29) on the road last week.

 

[Mrdibbs]

Any chance of getting this into the music mix at Beaver Stadium?

 

[PSUFTG]

I had confidence in the DBs until I saw Wisconsin go 75 yds and 85 yds on their last two possiessions.

I wrote and was speaking specifically of the CBs. Safetys are another issue.

IIRC, one TD was a 70+ yard play were the safety got tooled ( a safety who can't cover anyone). And then a corner couldn't bring down that big TE.
I'd have to go back and take a fresh look at the full drive for the other TD - but I think it included a couple long runs, a screen pass, and also a safety, again (same one?) who got beat for the TD on that one.

Safety play has been a sore spot all year - as I mentioned in some earlier posts.
But I think CB play has been pretty good. (especially with no pass rush)

 

[Erial_Lion]

Is that true? It was "7" AFTER the completion of last weekend's games??

I honestly don't know - but that is such a huge and rare swing.

No, it's not true. It reopened around -2.5 to -3 yesterday.

 

[Erial_Lion]

The goal of setting the line is get money on both sides of the bet. The line is "best" when there are equal amounts of money on each side.

Honestly, that's not completely true. The goal of setting the line is to make the "best" line possible so that sharps won't see value on either side. It's fine if there is unbalanced action as long as it's square $.

 

[Erial_Lion]

How can PSU be favorites over Northwestern on the road Friday?

NW smoked Colorado 41-7 and they took Indiana to the wire (23-29) on the road last week.

The easy answer is that most books/sharps won't let 1-2 weeks completely change their opinion of a team (like many fans or squares do). PSU is about 5-6 points better than NW in most power ratings (even more in some places)...so giving NW the home field bump and something in the 2.5-3 point range seems correct.

 

[BobPSU92]

Because we’re going to grow forward. Duh.

 

[Rocco3]

How can PSU be favorites over Northwestern on the road Friday?

NW smoked Colorado 41-7 and they took Indiana to the wire (23-29) on the road last week.

That probably tells us two things. Colorado really really stinks and we don't know how good Indiana actually is which probably tells us little about NW.

 

[BCS PSU]

That probably tells us two things. Colorado realy realy stinks and we don't know how good Indiana actually is which probably tells us little about NW.

I don't think that IU is anywhere close to being what they were last season; the drop off in qb is dramatic and they've now lost their No. 1 running back and really don't have much depth at that position.

 

[Chumboshifko1]

The line is set to make money.

 

[PSU87]

If our starting QB plays like he did vs Wisconsin, we don’t have a devout nun’s prayer of winning that game. His reads were bad, his throws were bad, and even his run decisions, save 1, were bad. We simply cannot win games with that level of QB play. Impossible vs real competition.

Depends on the nun. Can she throw?

 

[KingLando]

College Football Game Odds with Spread, Moneyline, and More - ESPN

The highest I saw anywhere was 3.5 because if i would have found a line of 7 I'd have made that waged instantly. Not sure where they're getting "open" from but that seems...wrong.

 

[PSUFTG]

The line is set to make money.

And, of course, the sure way for the Book to make money is to get (approximately) even $$$ on both sides. Obviously.

 

[m.knox]

How can PSU be favorites over Northwestern on the road Friday?

NW smoked Colorado 41-7 and they took Indiana to the wire (23-29) on the road last week.

What's the saying? "This is why we play the game."

We shall see.

 

[Catch1lion]

The easy answer is that most books/sharps won't let 1-2 weeks completely change their opinion of a team (like many fans or squares do). PSU is about 5-6 points better than NW in most power ratings (even more in some places)...so giving NW the home field bump and something in the 2.5-3 point range seems correct.

I was looking at those power ratings too. NW is rated close to Wisky and we are rated better than both of those clubs .

 

[Catch1lion]

Depends on the nun. Can she throw?

The nun has a habit of winning .

 

[fairgambit]

Depends on the nun. Can she throw?

Yes.

 

[leinbacker]

They shouldn't be, but the people who set these lines usually come pretty close to the final margin, which wasn't the case for last Saturday's game.

I actually think that it's a good thing that NU will playing their first game in their new stadium because they should be somewhat unfamiliar with it too.

why shouldn't it be? It is based on money, not the expected outcome. More people will bet for PSU than they will for Northwestern, so they set odds accordingly.

 

[rudedude]

I don't think that IU is anywhere close to being what they were last season; the drop off in qb is dramatic and they've now lost their No. 1 running back and really don't have much depth at that position.

Huh? Backup RB Beebe ran for 203 yds the other day bs NW!!!