A look at the preseason Top 10 at InterMat

Dec 1, 2014
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TheREALSpooner

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Dec 16, 2022
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You would put him over Minto, who took 4th and 2nd in trips to NCAA? I hate doesn’t make any sense.

You think a guy who says something this ridiculous is sensical?

 

Wrestleknownothing

All-American
Oct 30, 2021
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I would put Gabe as a high probability of making the finals at 174.
The only person who has a high probability to make the finals is the #1 seed (74.6%).

Not even the #2 seed has better than a 50/50 shot (44.3%).

Ranked #5, as Gabe Arnold is, has him at a 10.5% chance of making the finals.

If Mesenbrink goes 174 I would knock everything down a bit too as he would have a greater than 74.6% chance of making the final, and that has to come from somewhere.
 

T8KUDWN

Senior
May 2, 2025
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The only person who has a high probability to make the finals is the #1 seed (74.6%).

Not even the #2 seed has better than a 50/50 shot (44.3%).

Ranked #5, as Gabe Arnold is, has him at a 10.5% chance of making the finals.

If Mesenbrink goes 174 I would knock everything down a bit too as he would have a greater than 74.6% chance of making the final, and that has to come from somewhere.
I honestly don't care about percentages, statistics & all that stuff.
My comment comes from my observation from what I have seen from the guys in the weight class.
When I look at the guys at 174 my OPINION is Gabe has a high probability of making the finals.
 

bnicolls

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2005
304
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The only person who has a high probability to make the finals is the #1 seed (74.6%).

Not even the #2 seed has better than a 50/50 shot (44.3%).

Ranked #5, as Gabe Arnold is, has him at a 10.5% chance of making the finals.

If Mesenbrink goes 174 I would knock everything down a bit too as he would have a greater than 74.6% chance of making the final, and that has to come from somewhere.
I like the work you do.

However, this years pre-season rankings don't mean much for Iowa because

1) We had a number of guys wrestling injured last year
2) We have a couple transfers who either did not wrestle or wrestled a different weight
3) We have 2 year men taking over who did not wrestle much last year.
4) Gabe is at his correct weight, finally

Someone said he was very disinterested in the team this year (on another thread). I am very interested to see the progress at: 125, 133, 141, what happens at 49/57, 165, 174, 184, 197 and 285 due to the reasons above. We need to stay healthy, obviously.

All of this makes for an exciting year. By mid January we should have a good idea of our team potential at Big T and Nats, not so much right now
 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-American
Oct 30, 2021
2,303
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I like the work you do.

However, this years pre-season rankings don't mean much for Iowa because

1) We had a number of guys wrestling injured last year
2) We have a couple transfers who either did not wrestle or wrestled a different weight
3) We have 2 year men taking over who did not wrestle much last year.
4) Gabe is at his correct weight, finally

Someone said he was very disinterested in the team this year (on another thread). I am very interested to see the progress at: 125, 133, 141, what happens at 49/57, 165, 174, 184, 197 and 285 due to the reasons above. We need to stay healthy, obviously.

All of this makes for an exciting year. By mid January we should have a good idea of our team potential at Big T and Nats, not so much right now
This puts me in mind of a couple of things.

I imagine pre-season rankings are pretty inaccurate every year. There is the stuff we all know about - freshmen missing, question marks about weights, all the things in your list, etc.) - and then there is the "it's just hard" factor. I think I might play around with this idea to see how big the swings typically are.

This is an Iowa fan board. Everyone here should be more optimistic about Iowa wrestlers than others, or else what's the point? Which makes me want to come up with a best case scenario set of projections for every team. Forget about the average - our guys are from Lake Wobegon (google it).
 

TheREALSpooner

All-Conference
Dec 16, 2022
1,247
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I like the work you do.

However, this years pre-season rankings don't mean much for Iowa because

1) We had a number of guys wrestling injured last year
2) We have a couple transfers who either did not wrestle or wrestled a different weight
3) We have 2 year men taking over who did not wrestle much last year.
4) Gabe is at his correct weight, finally

Someone said he was very disinterested in the team this year (on another thread). I am very interested to see the progress at: 125, 133, 141, what happens at 49/57, 165, 174, 184, 197 and 285 due to the reasons above. We need to stay healthy, obviously.

All of this makes for an exciting year. By mid January we should have a good idea of our team potential at Big T and Nats, not so much right now

#1 is always true. I doubt this year will suddenly be any different.
 
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Stick Kitty

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Jul 7, 2025
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If all 10 starters are 100% healthy.....

Most likely to win a Natty

1. 285- Its a class up for grabs, if healthy he has the resume to take hold of it
2. 184- he has what it takes even despite the other big 3
3. 133- Any other year I would have him higher but this is a good a 133 class we have seen in years

Drop off
4. 174- Until I see some more offense I can't go that deep. He will be a strong 174 but the weight class is quicker than 197- which was an advantage that could be negated.

Reality
 
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bnicolls

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2005
304
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#1 is always true. I doubt this year will suddenly be any different.
Yes, but there were serious issues with 3 of the guys from last years team, who will be wrestling this year. Two could be finalist this year, not sure about the third

The whole point is pre-season rankings for us this year don't mean much, at least to me. Contrast this with the Covid year, the next when we won, and the following. Those line-ups were pretty set and predictions could be reasonably be made. This year, not so much
 

bnicolls

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2005
304
2,153
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If all 10 starters are 100% healthy.....

Most likely to win a Natty

1. 285- Its a class up for grabs, if healthy he has the resume to take hold of it
2. 184- he has what it takes even despite the other big 3
3. 133- Any other year I would have him higher but this is a good a 133 class we have seen in years

Drop off
4. 174- Until I see some more offense I can't go that deep. He will be a strong 174 but the weight class is quicker than 197- which was an advantage that could be negated.

Reality
Fair points.

I'd like to see Gabe work on the top position this year. He is ultra strong, and with good technique could ride well. The weight and length disparity last year made it near impossible. With his defense and some great riding, a touch of his quickness for offense........
 

Stick Kitty

All-Conference
Jul 7, 2025
519
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To me the whole thing with Kueter is he hasn't had the confidence to be the man yet. Its easy to say it but imagine dominating everything along the way while just always going up in weight class as drastic as he did. Then you get to the Iowa room a bit undersized and Big Tony just breaks you.

Then when you do get your starting spot you are building but just get it handed to you by greats in Gable, Wyatt, Paris and Kerk. Really the golden age of HWT.

Add in never really healthy and that's a hell of a mixture.

This year there are no big dogs left in the class. If Ben is healthy and gains confidence then watch out. Becomes the the junk yard dog he once was then he can start getting to his offense.
 
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bnicolls

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2005
304
2,153
93
To me the whole thing with Kueter is he hasn't had the confidence to be the man yet. Its easy to say it but imagine dominating everything along the way while just always going up in weight class as drastic as he did. Then you get to the Iowa room a bit undersized and Big Tony just breaks you.

Then when you do get your starting spot you are building but just get it handed to you by greats in Gable, Wyatt, Paris and Kerk. Really the golden age of HWT.

Add in never really healthy and that's a hell of a mixture.

This year there are no big dogs left in the class. If Ben is healthy and gains confidence then watch out. Becomes the the junk yard dog he once was then he can start getting to his offense.
I agree

Add in better and more training partners and ...............
 
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Corby2

Heisman
Jul 14, 2025
5,046
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Fair points.

I'd like to see Gabe work on the top position this year. He is ultra strong, and with good technique could ride well. The weight and length disparity last year made it near impossible. With his defense and some great riding, a touch of his quickness for offense........
Agree don't just cut a guy when he gets to his feet. Gabe can ride it just seems like he's not interested in it.
 
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Squatch96

All-Conference
Jul 3, 2025
548
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I was told by a fat bald podcaster that Crookham was crippled and wouldn’t be ready until February

He did look better then i thought the way people were talking I thought he still might have a brace on or something and it looks like Jordan williams is still with the team i assume he will at least get suspended for awhile at least
 
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sdvike

All-Conference
Feb 23, 2016
1,243
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I doubt we see him before big 10 duals no reason to rush it. Him getting 4-6 matches before big 10s wouldn't shock me. And late Jan early Feb is about right that's 1 year after his surgery .
Is Kale Peterson manning 33 til his return?
 

Squatch96

All-Conference
Jul 3, 2025
548
1,275
93
KP is a gamer but really feels like Delucca is going to need to step up Big early season.
If its KP until January its not exactly a murders row of 133 lbers with bellarmine isu uni pitt and probably msu best match up is probably grice from isu which I think is a match not saying KP will win but Imo its a close match
 
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