Playoff Predictions

[CCL65]

And no penalties, no turnovers

 

[4Afan]

Joliet Catholic is better than any 3A team other than IC.

Is JCA also better than Loyola?

 

[4Afan]

Should it occur bank on massive playoff changes.... I've heard that if private schools dominate the playoffs again that their future landing spots, outside of an all Private school playoff, would be 6A and 8A only! NOT saying this will happen but enough of a push is starting to be listened to! This won't bother most private schools either way especially Might Mt Carmel!~

And where did you hear this? There's notes from the competition committee posted here monthly and no talk of what you're saying has been mentioned.

 

[DirtySixThirty]

Is JCA also better than Loyola?

Seems like a silly question. I take it you're trying to make a point.

 

[4Afan]

Seems like a silly question. I take it you're trying to make a point.

They held IC to 6 and Loyola got lit up. Had be more than just the chilly weather that held the IC juggernaut down.

Last year Byron beat IC 28-6. Has IC improved by 22 points more than Byron from last year?

 

[DirtySixThirty]

They held IC to 6 and Loyola got lit up. Had be more than just the chilly weather that held the IC juggernaut down.

Last year Byron beat IC 28-6. Has IC improved by 22 points more than Byron from last year?

They also gave up 45 points to Loyola whike shutting-out Joliet.

 

[4Afan]

They also gave up 45 points to Loyola whike shutting-out Joliet.

So you're saying they're inconsistent.

 

[DirtySixThirty]

NM

 

[Wassup13_rivals219252]

8A LWE, (never picked them before, Iggy darkhorse)
7A East St Louis, look out for St Rita.
6A Geneva
5A St Francis, yes I know they are 4-5.
4A Morris (Darkhorse, SHG)
3A Byron (can Byron do it over ICCP even without Talbert?)

5 Public schools, I must be out of my mind.

 

[DirtySixThirty]

8A LWE, (never picked them before, Iggy darkhorse)
7A East St Louis, look out for St Rita.
6A Geneva
5A St Francis, yes I know they are 4-5.
4A Morris (Darkhorse, SHG)
3A Byron (can Byron do it over ICCP even without Talbert?)

5 Public schools, I must be out of my mind.

Ignatius is an example of why playoff classes should be determined by sport participation rather than enrollment. Smaller roster than IC, lost to IC, and has to play five classes higher than IC in the playoffs.

 

[DirtySixThirty]

So you're saying they're inconsistent.

They gave up 45 points to one of the best teams in the state - a team that has three times the number of players as they do. I would say it's to their credit that they scored 35 against said team.

 

[4Afan]

They gave up 45 points to one of the best teams in the state - a team that has three times the number of players as they do. I would say it's to their credit that they scored 35 against said team.

If they put up 35 against Loyola then how was JCA able to shut them down?

 

[Wassup13_rivals219252]

Ignatius is an example of why playoff classes should be determined by sport participation rather than enrollment. Smaller roster than IC, lost to IC, and has to play five classes higher than IC in the playoffs.

Sounds like coaches not doing their job in the hallways to get more kids to go out for the team.

 

[DirtySixThirty]

If they put up 35 against Loyola then how was JCA able to shut them down?

In fairness, I didn't attend the Joliet game, so I don't have as much insight on it. However, it was much colder and windier than the week before, and I've been told that they rotated more players than previous games. Perhaps they were taking it a bit easy to go into the playoffs healthy.

 

[DirtySixThirty]

Sounds like coaches not doing their job in the hallways to get more kids to go out for the team.

When you have a school of 1,500 only putting 35 guys out there, I'd say that's a distinct possibility.

 

[4Afan]

In fairness, I didn't attend the Joliet game, so I don't have as much insight on it. However, it was much colder and windier than the week before, and I've been told that they rotated more players than previous games. Perhaps they were taking it a bit easy to go into the playoffs healthy.

If weather caused a 29 point difference then November may not be kind to them.

 

[80sRambler]

Ignatius is an example of why playoff classes should be determined by sport participation rather than enrollment. Smaller roster than IC, lost to IC, and has to play five classes higher than IC in the playoffs.

Yet SICP competes at 8A mostly just fine. And they don’t talk so much about two-way players (which they have). I have them winning at least a round this year. Maybe IC should play up a few classes??

 

[RockSoup]

CCL prediction thread algorithm is a closely guarded secret only few know about.

As a former holder of the CCL algorithm, one is sworn to secrecy or satire.

So the recipe is:
A little Bayesian math mixed with successive approximations built off the team’s last 50 games, weighted heavier from recent to older.
The stats we are pulling besides points scored are a teams 5 year moving average of EPA, RYOE, CPOE, Air yards, max speed numbers etc. nothing too fancy
Then we use one part eyeball test.
Created 100 AI agents to learn their own CCL Team rankings using historical data and any other necessary research the agent develops over time who will then each run 53,442 simulations. We then take the median score.
Add what the street line is from the Parishes, the Fire Stations, and Board of Trade. All equally weighted.
Finally add two sprigs of Parsley, Sage, Rosemary and Thyme.
With this number, you have to text it to the HOFers Mwitt, DOS, PJJP, IGNAZIO, McCar. Adjust number until we receive 3 thumbs up.
Then we do the next game.
No big deal

 

[DirtySixThirty]

Yet SICP competes at 8A mostly just fine. And they don’t talk so much about two-way players (which they have). I have them winning at least a round this year. Maybe IC should play up a few classes??

While I agree that they should play up a few classes, I think the deeper problem is a broken playoff classification system. With eight classes, we end up with just a handful of teams with any realistic shot at winning each one. I'd much rather see four classes of 64 teams than eight classes of 32 (or 48).

 

[UIUC 17]

Ignatius is an example of why playoff classes should be determined by sport participation rather than enrollment. Smaller roster than IC, lost to IC, and has to play five classes higher than IC in the playoffs.

If you’re going off what’s reported in MaxPreps it’s not accurate on the site. Ignatius has 52 on their varsity roster, and another 70 across lower levels. IC doesn’t come close to those numbers so it’d be accurate that one is 3A and the other is 8A

 

[Silver Rain]

Mount Carmel is consistent in that even the subs got hit with penalties.

This year's 8-1 Loyola is probably better than last year's 4-5 team. The '25 and '26 Rice game is our point of reference.

 

[DirtySixThirty]

If you’re going off what’s reported in MaxPreps it’s not accurate on the site. Ignatius has 52 on their varsity roster, and another 70 across lower levels. IC doesn’t come close to those numbers so it’d be accurate that one is 3A and the other is 8A

Interesting. Maybe MaxPreps isn't the best source for stuff.

 

[UIUC 17]

Interesting. Maybe MaxPreps isn't the best source for stuff.

Seems like there’s been a push for teams/volunteers to upload team info to MaxPreps so it should be more accurate in the coming seasons. Rosters seem to be hit or miss as of now though

 

[4Afan]

Interesting. Maybe MaxPreps isn't the best source for stuff.

All depends on what the schools give them.

 

[LWN_Pheonix]

There is a huge difference between last years LWE team and this years

I think that they can be best described by the following analogy

- Imagine if you were allowed a day pass into Prestwick country club; during your tour of the grounds you would eventually make your way to the golf course; after admiring the powders, oils and balms supplied to its members in the locker room

You would see
Jonas Williams and his chauffeur driving his golf cart for 9 holes

Evan LeFevour on the other hand would be walking the course with a caddie (no gloves!)

HUGE difference in grit and attitude, between those types.

Williams always had issues in the big games and never appeared in a state final meanwhile this years team isn’t afraid of a few loose grass clippings.

 

[Silver Rain]

If Jonas was a liability, can this year's LWE, with its proletarian quarterback and gritty, hard-nosed attitude, beat both Loyola and Mt. Carmel? In the latest Bayesian estimate, MC will beat them in football, Loyola at the Prestwick Country Club.

 

[definitely an NFL coach]

Then explain only 6 points against JCA.

^ Looks at scores and doesn't watch tape

 

[Silver Rain]

^ Looks at scores and doesn't watch tape.

Or looks at tape but doesn't watch games.

 

[4Afan]

^ Looks at scores and doesn't watch tape

View attachment 1496490

And Loyola has 2nd ranked defense, what's your point? Using this data just says they should have scored more against JCA.

IC's offense is ranked 24th per Massey so maybe the Loyola game was an anomaly.

You're coming at me for not watching, but that's why my original post was to explain how they could put up 35 on Loyola and only 6 on JCA. No one can provide an explanation other than it was more chilly that week. So enlighten me as to what the tape shows.

 

[UIUC 17]

And Loyola has 2nd ranked defense, what's your point? Using this data just says they should have scored more against JCA.

IC's offense is ranked 24th per Massey so maybe the Loyola game was an anomaly.

You're coming at me for not watching, but that's why my original post was to explain how they could put up 35 on Loyola and only 6 on JCA. No one can provide an explanation other than it was more chilly that week. So enlighten me as to what the tape shows.

Watch the game and you’ll know. This is also answered in the game thread

 

[definitely an NFL coach]

And Loyola has 2nd ranked defense, what's your point? Using this data just says they should have scored more against JCA.

IC's offense is ranked 24th per Massey so maybe the Loyola game was an anomaly.

You're coming at me for not watching, but that's why my original post was to explain how they could put up 35 on Loyola and only 6 on JCA. No one can provide an explanation other than it was more chilly that week. So enlighten me as to what the tape shows.

joliet catholic's defense is really good and the only time (the defense) gave up more than 2 scores was agaisnt mount carmel, when the defense gave up 28.

 

[Carmine Evergreen]

8A MC
7A ESL
6A Geneva
5A Providence
4A Montini
3A SJO
2A Wilmington
1A Stockton

 

[DirtySixThirty]

8A MC
7A ESL
6A Geneva
5A Providence
4A Montini
3A SJO
2A Wilmington
1A Stockton

Picking a team from the 3A south bracket?

 

[LWN_Pheonix]

my belief is that Loyola was preparing for MC rather than IC

due to that fact the first half got away from them