Cant these coaches count to 10, 7, 8, 9? Ryan Day remedial math

[uihawk82]

Ok. Your down 27 to 12, 15 pts. You score with 2:30 left in the game. Kick the PAT or go for 2?

I of course kick the PAT to get within 8 pts, one score, 27-19 and then need a TD and 2 pt conversions later.

You have to get at least one 2 pt conversion to tie but if you go for it down 9 and dont get it oooopppsss!!!

But Ryan Day goes for 2 pts, misses it and is now 9 pts down, two scores in 2:30. It does not make sense to go for two until the 2nd TD to tie the game.

These coaches have been around the game so long. paid big bucks and cant LOGIC this out.

 

[Hawkfan_08*]

Ok. Your down 27 to 12, 15 pts. You score with 2:30 left in the game. Kick the PAT or go for 2?

I of course kick the PAT to get within 8 pts, one score, 27-19 and then need a TD and 2 pt conversions later.

You have to get at least one 2 pt conversion to tie but if you go for it down 9 and dont get it oooopppsss!!!

But Ryan Day goes for 2 pts, misses it and is now 9 pts down, two scores in 2:30. It does not make sense to go for two until the 2nd TD to tie the game.

These coaches have been around the game so long. paid big bucks and cant LOGIC this out.

Don't even try. Some math nerd has already come up with a formula to prove that going for 2 down 9 is a statistically brilliant play.

I will never get it. I'm with you.

 

[Hawkeyes19]

I am in the crowd of you don't go for 2 until you absolutely have to. A few years ago we went through this and we went for 2 down 15 in the 4th quarter. Several on here said you have to get a 2 pt conversion at some point and felt it was the right decision. But if the attempt failed, which we did, you're down 9 with time running out. In the 50 years I've been watching Hawkeye football, listening mostly in the years before every game is televised, I doubt Iowa has made a handful of 2 pt conversions.

 

[7and5baby]

I think the logic is that you want to KNOW early if you aren't going to make the conversion--meaning you will need 2 more possessions, instead of 1. You play the final minutes a lot different with that knowledge

 

[Anon1751457816]

*You're

 

[Outbackbowl2017]

Ok. Your down 27 to 12, 15 pts. You score with 2:30 left in the game. Kick the PAT or go for 2?

I of course kick the PAT to get within 8 pts, one score, 27-19 and then need a TD and 2 pt conversions later.

You have to get at least one 2 pt conversion to tie but if you go for it down 9 and dont get it oooopppsss!!!

But Ryan Day goes for 2 pts, misses it and is now 9 pts down, two scores in 2:30. It does not make sense to go for two until the 2nd TD to tie the game.

These coaches have been around the game so long. paid big bucks and cant LOGIC this out.

If you go for two immediately and miss, now you know you have to get the ball for a third possession and kick a field goal as soon as you get into field range while also preserving clock for the next possessions. It’s a crap shoot waiting till the end of the game to go for two with no time on the clock so if you miss, there is no time to get a third possession. Analytics tell you to ho for two early with as much time on the clock to maximize as many possessions as possible.

 

[uihawk82]

If you go for two immediately and miss, now you know you have to get the ball for a third possession and kick a field goal as soon as you get into field range while also preserving clock for the next possessions. It’s a crap shoot waiting till the end of the game to go for two with no time on the clock so if you miss, there is no time to get a third possession. Analytics tell you to ho for two early with as much time on the clock to maximize as many possessions as possible.

There was only about 4 minutes left in the game so if you mess the 2 pt and need 9 pts you have to get 2 onside kicks which is about a 1% probability and OSU couldnt stop USC all night. You aint getting the ball back twice in 4 minutes, 1 in a 1000 chance.

Kick the PAT kickoff and play defense or try to get one needed onside kick the best you can and hope to get the ball back one time

 

[Rifler]

Save the two point conversion for the final drive,... If you go for it early and fail your offense and defense will be so deflated that performance will suffer,... Keep the game in reach and everybody stays focused.

 

[Tippett1]

You never chase points until you have to. That was a horrible decision.

 

[AndreTheHawk]

I am in the crowd of you don't go for 2 until you absolutely have to. A few years ago we went through this and we went for 2 down 15 in the 4th quarter. Several on here said you have to get a 2 pt conversion at some point and felt it was the right decision. But if the attempt failed, which we did, you're down 9 with time running out. In the 50 years I've been watching Hawkeye football, listening mostly in the years before every game is televised, I doubt Iowa has made a handful of 2 pt conversions.

I don't know the exact number/percentage for 2 point conversions under Kirk Ferentz, but I do know it's not good. In the 19-20% successful range.

Lester started 0-6 on 2 point tries, all passes. Given who he's had at QB that checks out.

 

[The Big Z]

Don't even try. Some math nerd has already come up with a formula to prove that going for 2 down 9 is a statistically brilliant play.

I will never get it. I'm with you.

There is no math nerd that ever says that is the right scenario.

 

[The Big Z]

I think the logic is that you want to KNOW early if you aren't going to make the conversion--meaning you will need 2 more possessions, instead of 1. You play the final minutes a lot different with that knowledge

There is no logic to it with that amount of time left. You kick it and it’s a 1 possession game. Plain and simple. You miss it and it’s 2 and there’s not enough time to do anything. Beyond insane.

 

[WeBeHerkin]

I'd go for two just like he did, when he did.