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Is the schedule playing out well for us?...

dawgstudent

dawgstudent

Heisman
Apr 15, 2003
40,435
21,897
113
Missouri, Auburn, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma all being at home is a good thing. Outside of Vandy, I would worry about playing those teams on the road.

I think we will win those 4 plus obviously Tennessee Tech. Toss ups are @ LSU, @ Ole Miss, and Alabama. Definitive L is Texas.

So I'm adjusting my season prediction as of today to 8-4 instead of 7-5. And if the stars align - we could somehow get to 9 or even 10 wins but that's probably a pipe dream. This is a very fluid situation.

Preseason prognosticators - https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/elys-preseason-prognosticators-mississippi-state.8827797/
 
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Napoleon378

Napoleon378

All-Conference
Nov 14, 2023
811
1,299
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Yea, it's worked out nice. I was telling some friends in the preseason there are always teams that underperform to expectations, so you never really know.

I will say I think we go 8-4 or 9-3 but I'm not marking any game as a definitive L with the way our offense can go.
 
615dawg

615dawg

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2007
7,251
4,720
113
At this point, this is how I look at the schedule:

 
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W

Willow Grove Dawg

All-American
Nov 3, 2016
8,369
6,019
113
We had to win 3 of the first 4 to have a chance to get to 6-6. We are better than I thought we would be. I did not expect us to dominate Minnesota. South Carolina is South Carolina but it is hard to win on the road in the SEC especially given the way that game started. I am impressed thus far & if we beat Missouri Saturday, I am all-in. We have a chance in every game remaining on the schedule. My outlook has changed from 5-7 or 6-6 to 7-5.
 
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615dawg

615dawg

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2007
7,251
4,720
113
Willow Grove Dawg said:
I would not categorize Bama as a toss-up. Bama should be a clear favorite. I agree on Oklahoma though, we might even be favored in that game.
Click to expand...
Tossup may be the wrong word - we need to go 1-1 against the Crimson teams, both at home. But that's the path to the playoff.
 
Shmuley

Shmuley

Heisman
Mar 6, 2008
24,300
12,185
113
dawgstudent said:
Missouri, Auburn, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma all being at home is a good thing. Outside of Vandy, I would worry about playing those teams on the road.

I think we will win those 4 plus obviously Tennessee Tech. Toss ups are @ LSU, @ Ole Miss, and Alabama. Definitive L is Texas.

So I'm adjusting my season prediction as of today to 8-4 instead of 7-5. And if the stars align - we could somehow get to 9 or even 10 wins but that's probably a pipe dream. This is a very fluid situation.

Preseason prognosticators - https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/elys-preseason-prognosticators-mississippi-state.8827797/
Click to expand...
You know better.
 
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D

DoggieDaddy13

All-Conference
Dec 23, 2017
3,896
2,267
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dawgstudent said:
Missouri, Auburn, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma all being at home is a good thing. Outside of Vandy, I would worry about playing those teams on the road.

I think we will win those 4 plus obviously Tennessee Tech. Toss ups are @ LSU, @ Ole Miss, and Alabama. Definitive L is Texas.

So I'm adjusting my season prediction as of today to 8-4 instead of 7-5. And if the stars align - we could somehow get to 9 or even 10 wins but that's probably a pipe dream. This is a very fluid situation.

Preseason prognosticators - https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/elys-preseason-prognosticators-mississippi-state.8827797/
Click to expand...

I think our chances of beating Texas - certainly talented but always suffering from a lack of focus - are better than against Bama, LSU, and OM.

While we always want to beat OM, I 17n relish the chance to beat #1Texas in Austin. And we do have a chance.
 
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ZombieKissinger

ZombieKissinger

All-American
May 29, 2013
5,506
9,472
113
DoggieDaddy13 said:
I think our chances of beating Texas - certainly talented but always suffering from a lack of focus - are better than against Bama, LSU, and OM.

While we always want to beat OM, I 17n relish the chance to beat #1Texas in Austin. And we do have a chance.
Click to expand...
I agree. Texas just feels like a loss on paper but a winnable game.
 
M

MSUDC11-2.0

Heisman
Sep 29, 2022
10,711
17,093
113
I worry about defensive depth catching up with us at some point. Losing Trevion and Diesel for the season is significant. We basically have no depth on the DL now.

But absolutely you gotta like how the schedule looks. We’ve won two road games and 6 of our final 9 are at home.

We’re probably going to be favored in every home game except Bama the rest of the way. Which means I think we’ll be favored to beat Oklahoma,

And I don’t think any of the 3 road games are just totally unwinnable. We might not win any of them but I don’t go into any of those thinking it’s like a trip to Tuscaloosa in the Saban era where it’s just hopeless and pointless. We can absolutely go into Baton Rouge and Oxford and win. Austin will be tougher but we obviously played well against that team last year with a lesser version of ourselves.
 
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QuadrupleOption

QuadrupleOption

All-Conference
Aug 21, 2012
1,279
1,397
93
Our offense has clicked a lot better than I expected, but we have already sustained two season-ending injuries on our DL. Can our defense hold up enough to give us a shot in our remaining games?

So far we are 2-0 in games I had as tossups, which is great. I've adjusted my expectations a bit:

Wins:
Tennessee Tech

Tossups:
Mizzou
OU
Vandy
Auburn

Probable Losses:
Alabama
LSU (away)
Texas (away)
Ole Miss (away)

So if we split the tossups, worse case is 6-6. But we've seen this dance before. Last season. Kamario is a special player, but we need our defense to hold up.
 
DAWGSANDSAINTS

DAWGSANDSAINTS

All-Conference
Oct 10, 2022
3,324
3,041
113
As Jackie used to say, win the months.
Already won September and could sweep.
October gonna be tough. 2-2 would be amazing considering most had us 0-4 or 1-3 at best.
November we could/should be 3-0 heading into the Egg Bowl.
 
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P

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
60,271
31,375
113
QuadrupleOption said:
Our offense has clicked a lot better than I expected, but we have already sustained two season-ending injuries on our DL. Can our defense hold up enough to give us a shot in our remaining games?

So far we are 2-0 in games I had as tossups, which is great. I've adjusted my expectations a bit:

Wins:
Tennessee Tech

Tossups:
Mizzou
OU
Vandy
Auburn

Probable Losses:
Alabama
LSU (away)
Texas (away)
Ole Miss (away)

So if we split the tossups, worse case is 6-6. But we've seen this dance before. Last season. Kamario is a special player, but we need our defense to hold up.
Click to expand...
I don't see Vandy or Auburn as tossups. I had those as probably wins in the summer when I was predicting 4-8. I don't they're any better than Minnesota or South Carolina (and I don't think those are good at all), plus they're at home.
 
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POTUS

POTUS

Heisman
Sep 29, 2022
4,761
12,819
113
dawgstudent said:
Bama is nothing special. They aren't Bama under Saban. We still might lose but they aren't Saban's bama.
Click to expand...
Seems like they play with their food in the first half and then unleash hell in the second half. They will likely be favored against us by more than we'd expect.

ETA: It's still early and anything can happen but @Bulldawg77 is looking like a real winner in that prognostication thread. A few others looking pretty foolish.
 
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M

MSUDC11-2.0

Heisman
Sep 29, 2022
10,711
17,093
113
patdog said:
I don't see Vandy or Auburn as tossups. I had those as probably wins in the summer when I was predicting 4-8. I don't they're any better than Minnesota or South Carolina (and I don't think those are good at all), plus they're at home.
Click to expand...

It would be disappointing to lose either of those games at home. Those are not good football teams.
 
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QuadrupleOption

QuadrupleOption

All-Conference
Aug 21, 2012
1,279
1,397
93
patdog said:
I don't see Vandy or Auburn as tossups. I had those as probably wins in the summer when I was predicting 4-8. I don't they're any better than Minnesota or South Carolina (and I don't think those are good at all), plus they're at home.
Click to expand...

You are probably right. But I've been a State fan since 1978 and I've seen a lot of **** over the years. I'll never call an SEC opponent a 'sure win'.
 
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POTUS

POTUS

Heisman
Sep 29, 2022
4,761
12,819
113
The game people are overestimating: Oklahoma. The recipe to beat them is the same as USC and it's at home.

The game people are underestimating: Auburn. People have written them off after Florida and I think they'll be a tough out.
 
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P

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
60,271
31,375
113
POTUS said:
The game people are overestimating: Oklahoma. The recipe to beat them is the same as USC and it's at home.

The game people are underestimating: Auburn. People have written them off after Florida and I think they'll be a tough out.
Click to expand...
I think it's the complete opposite. Okie will be a tough game. Auburn should be a win. Okie has the #2 defense in the league. Auburn defense is #16.
 
John Deaux VII

John Deaux VII

All-Conference
Jun 7, 2024
1,217
2,963
113
ZombieKissinger said:
I agree. Texas just feels like a loss on paper but a winnable game.
Click to expand...
I know its in Austin, but we beat them up and down the field for a little over 3 quarters last year. I don't see it as a for sure loss.

In the words of Mike Leach in his infamous lockeroom rant at Texas Tech - "**** playing it close. We lost the ******* game to the University of Texas and we could have won the mother******".....
 
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M

MaroonState

Sophomore
Aug 23, 2012
181
123
43
dawgstudent said:
Missouri, Auburn, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma all being at home is a good thing. Outside of Vandy, I would worry about playing those teams on the road.

I think we will win those 4 plus obviously Tennessee Tech. Toss ups are @ LSU, @ Ole Miss, and Alabama. Definitive L is Texas.

So I'm adjusting my season prediction as of today to 8-4 instead of 7-5. And if the stars align - we could somehow get to 9 or even 10 wins but that's probably a pipe dream. This is a very fluid situation.

Preseason prognosticators - https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/elys-preseason-prognosticators-mississippi-state.8827797/
Click to expand...
As of now, LSU is an L and Texas is a toss up. We will beat Texas in Austin before we beat LSU in red stick. I’ve seen many a Dawg dreams go to die on the bayou. Just how it is.
 
M

MSUDC11-2.0

Heisman
Sep 29, 2022
10,711
17,093
113
patdog said:
I think it's the complete opposite. Okie will be a tough game. Auburn should be a win. Okie has the #2 defense in the league. Auburn defense is #16.
Click to expand...

Oklahoma can’t score but their defense definitely scares me as one that could stop us potentially. See what they did in Knoxville last year against a similar style offense. Kamario is better than Joey Aguilar was, but I digress.
 
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F

Felonious Junk

All-Conference
Oct 23, 2008
1,876
1,242
113
Bama may not be Saban’s bama anymore but they’re still way more athletic than us at pretty much every position. We will struggle to stop them on 3rd down in crucial moments like we always have bc we can’t stop a running QB. We couldn’t get off the field against Blake Sims, Hurts or Tua. This year will be no different
 
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D

Dawgzilla2

All-Conference
Oct 9, 2022
2,653
2,972
113
Willow Grove Dawg said:
I would not categorize Bama as a toss-up. Bama should be a clear favorite. I agree on Oklahoma though, we might even be favored in that game.
Click to expand...
If State receives the opening kick against Bama, there is a chance they will score too many first half points for Bama to make another big comeback.

I said it already, but after watching all the games from this weekend, State has a chance to beat anyone in the conference. It would take some of the teams having a bad day, and State playing at its best, but there is a chance.

And its always good to have toss-up games at home.

That said, so far I'm only counting Vandy and Tennessee Tech as likely wins.
 
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