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BCS PSU

All-Conference
Jun 2, 2001
1,347
2,272
113
bdgan said:
How can PSU be favorites over Northwestern on the road Friday?

NW smoked Colorado 41-7 and they took Indiana to the wire (23-29) on the road last week.
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They shouldn't be, but the people who set these lines usually come pretty close to the final margin, which wasn't the case for last Saturday's game.

I actually think that it's a good thing that NU will playing their first game in their new stadium because they should be somewhat unfamiliar with it too.
 
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ShoreLion85V2

Sophomore
Oct 17, 2016
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If our starting QB plays like he did vs Wisconsin, we don’t have a devout nun’s prayer of winning that game. His reads were bad, his throws were bad, and even his run decisions, save 1, were bad. We simply cannot win games with that level of QB play. Impossible vs real competition.
 
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bdgan

All-American
Oct 12, 2021
5,398
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BCS PSU said:
They shouldn't be, but the people who set these lines usually come pretty close to the final margin, which wasn't the case for last Saturday's game.
Click to expand...
The "people" who set the line favored PSU by 7 pts. Since then the bettors have moved it down to 2.5.
 
P

PSUFTG

All-Conference
Nov 1, 2021
2,617
3,853
113
bdgan said:
The "people" who set the line favored PSU by 7 pts. Since then the bettors have moved it down to 2.5.
Click to expand...
Is that true? It was "7" AFTER the completion of last weekend's games??

I honestly don't know - but that is such a huge and rare swing.
 
B

BCS PSU

All-Conference
Jun 2, 2001
1,347
2,272
113
ShoreLion85V2 said:
If our starting QB plays like he did vs Wisconsin, we don’t have a devout nun’s prayer of winning that game. His reads were bad, his throws were bad, and even his run decisions, save 1, were bad. We simply cannot win games with that level of QB play. Impossible vs real competition.
Click to expand...
You mean you didn't like when he ran right into the middle of the pile and basically sacked himself on at least two occasions?
 
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Big_O

Big_O

All-Conference
Jun 28, 2001
1,673
2,761
113
ShoreLion85V2 said:
If our starting QB plays like he did vs Wisconsin, we don’t have a devout nun’s prayer of winning that game. His reads were bad, his throws were bad, and even his run decisions, save 1, were bad. We simply cannot win games with that level of QB play. Impossible vs real competition.
Click to expand...
He underthrew wide open receivers for TD’s that would have won the game. He made other poor decisions in the game as well, not something I would expect for an experienced 5th year senior.
 
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bdgan

All-American
Oct 12, 2021
5,398
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ShoreLion85V2 said:
If our starting QB plays like he did vs Wisconsin, we don’t have a devout nun’s prayer of winning that game. His reads were bad, his throws were bad, and even his run decisions, save 1, were bad. We simply cannot win games with that level of QB play. Impossible vs real competition.
Click to expand...
Saturday's game vs Wisconsin gave me ZERO optimism.
  • Our two TDs both came off interceptions.
  • Our 3rd interception was bear midfield and we had to punt.
  • PSU's longest drive of the day was 36 yds.
  • You could look at the INTs as a positive but they came because Joseph threw horrible passes, not because PSU was able to get much pressure. I'll give Zayas and Rojas credit for making good plays.
  • Defense gave up a 75 yd and an 85 yd drive in the last 4 minutes.
  • Punting was horrible.
I'm really having difficulty finding one thing to hang my hat on that would make me believe we can beat NW on Friday. But if we do we know USC has struggled and maybe Howard comes back for Michigan. I guess anything can happen but I'm not a believer right now.
 
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bdgan

All-American
Oct 12, 2021
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Big_O said:
He underthrew wide open receivers for TD’s that would have won the game. He made other poor decisions in the game as well, not something I would expect for an experienced 5th year senior.
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True but elite WRs/TEs show the physicality and athleticism to catch some of those underthrown balls (or draw a PI penalty).
 
P

PSUFTG

All-Conference
Nov 1, 2021
2,617
3,853
113
bdgan said:
Saturday's game vs Wisconsin gave me ZERO optimism.
  • Our two TDs both came off interceptions.
  • Our 3rd interception was bear midfield and we had to punt.
  • PSU's longest drive of the day was 36 yds.
  • You could look at the INTs as a positive but they came because Joseph threw horrible passes, not because PSU was able to get much pressure. I'll give Zayas and Rojas credit for making good plays.
  • Defense gave up a 75 yd and an 85 yd drive in the last 4 minutes.
  • Punting was horrible.
I'm really having difficulty finding one thing to hang my hat on that would make me believe we can beat NW on Friday. But if we do we know USC has struggled and maybe Howard comes back for Michigan. I guess anything can happen but I'm not a believer right now.
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Hard to argue with any of that - aside from possible feeling it HAS to get better. It couldn't get worse - could it?


I will say that the key for NW has been the play of their QB (Chiles, who transferred in from MSU)
AND
The one thing PSU has shown, is they have CBs who can cover decent WRs. If they can take away NWs passing game, that would be a huge edge.
 
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bdgan

All-American
Oct 12, 2021
5,398
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PSUFTG said:
The one thing PSU has shown, is they have CBs who can cover decent WRs. If they can take away NWs passing game, that would be a huge edge.
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I had confidence in the DBs until I saw Wisconsin go 75 yds and 85 yds on their last two possiessions.
 
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PSUFTG

All-Conference
Nov 1, 2021
2,617
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bdgan said:
I had confidence in the DBs until I saw Wisconsin go 75 yds and 85 yds on their last two possiessions.
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I wrote and was speaking specifically of the CBs. Safetys are another issue.

IIRC, one TD was a 70+ yard play were the safety got tooled ( a safety who can't cover anyone). And then a corner couldn't bring down that big TE.
I'd have to go back and take a fresh look at the full drive for the other TD - but I think it included a couple long runs, a screen pass, and also a safety, again (same one?) who got beat for the TD on that one.

Safety play has been a sore spot all year - as I mentioned in some earlier posts.
But I think CB play has been pretty good. (especially with no pass rush)
 
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Erial_Lion

All-American
Nov 1, 2021
4,224
5,022
113
Metal Mike said:
The goal of setting the line is get money on both sides of the bet. The line is "best" when there are equal amounts of money on each side.
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Honestly, that's not completely true. The goal of setting the line is to make the "best" line possible so that sharps won't see value on either side. It's fine if there is unbalanced action as long as it's square $.
 
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Erial_Lion

All-American
Nov 1, 2021
4,224
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113
bdgan said:
How can PSU be favorites over Northwestern on the road Friday?

NW smoked Colorado 41-7 and they took Indiana to the wire (23-29) on the road last week.
Click to expand...
The easy answer is that most books/sharps won't let 1-2 weeks completely change their opinion of a team (like many fans or squares do). PSU is about 5-6 points better than NW in most power ratings (even more in some places)...so giving NW the home field bump and something in the 2.5-3 point range seems correct.
 
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Rocco3

Rocco3

Junior
Mar 25, 2022
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bdgan said:
How can PSU be favorites over Northwestern on the road Friday?

NW smoked Colorado 41-7 and they took Indiana to the wire (23-29) on the road last week.
Click to expand...
That probably tells us two things. Colorado really really stinks and we don't know how good Indiana actually is which probably tells us little about NW.
 
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B

BCS PSU

All-Conference
Jun 2, 2001
1,347
2,272
113
Rocco3 said:
That probably tells us two things. Colorado realy realy stinks and we don't know how good Indiana actually is which probably tells us little about NW.
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I don't think that IU is anywhere close to being what they were last season; the drop off in qb is dramatic and they've now lost their No. 1 running back and really don't have much depth at that position.
 
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PSU87

PSU87

All-Conference
Jun 8, 2001
2,083
4,427
113
ShoreLion85V2 said:
If our starting QB plays like he did vs Wisconsin, we don’t have a devout nun’s prayer of winning that game. His reads were bad, his throws were bad, and even his run decisions, save 1, were bad. We simply cannot win games with that level of QB play. Impossible vs real competition.
Click to expand...
Depends on the nun. Can she throw?
 
Catch1lion

Catch1lion

All-American
Oct 12, 2021
4,197
7,148
113
Erial_Lion said:
The easy answer is that most books/sharps won't let 1-2 weeks completely change their opinion of a team (like many fans or squares do). PSU is about 5-6 points better than NW in most power ratings (even more in some places)...so giving NW the home field bump and something in the 2.5-3 point range seems correct.
Click to expand...
I was looking at those power ratings too. NW is rated close to Wisky and we are rated better than both of those clubs .
 
leinbacker

leinbacker

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
2,516
4,040
113
BCS PSU said:
They shouldn't be, but the people who set these lines usually come pretty close to the final margin, which wasn't the case for last Saturday's game.

I actually think that it's a good thing that NU will playing their first game in their new stadium because they should be somewhat unfamiliar with it too.
Click to expand...

why shouldn't it be? It is based on money, not the expected outcome. More people will bet for PSU than they will for Northwestern, so they set odds accordingly.
 
rudedude

rudedude

Heisman
Sep 28, 2002
9,024
17,660
113
BCS PSU said:
I don't think that IU is anywhere close to being what they were last season; the drop off in qb is dramatic and they've now lost their No. 1 running back and really don't have much depth at that position.
Click to expand...
Huh? Backup RB Beebe ran for 203 yds the other day bs NW!!!
 
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