The numbers in this article are Ole Miss-centric, but they can be repeated in Starkville, Tuscaloosa and Fayetteville
Full article: https://www.cissellmanagement.com/blog/ole-miss-enrollment-2026-record-projection
Some highlights for discussion (My MSU-centric opinion in bold)
The University of Mississippi released its fall numbers: 28,960 students across all campuses, up 2 percent, the fourth straight record. 3,270 were at UMMC, which is included in this number.
Mississippi State announced 23,721, a 0.7% increase YoY. Meridian is probably around 800 students, so almost 23k in Starkville.
The headline says record, but the freshman class, the students who just showed up, came in at 5,363. That is down from 5,464 last year, which was already down from 5,972 the year before. Two straight years of a smaller entering class.
At State, the freshmen class is getting bigger. In 2024, we had 3,596 and that increased to 4,049 in 2025 (12.6% increase). We saw a 6% increase this year to 4,292. While Ole Miss has seen their freshmen drop over 10% in two years, State has seen a nearly 20% increase in the same time period.
This year 87.6 percent of last year's freshmen came back for year two, nearly 19 points above the national average, and that is to the university's credit. Holding onto students once they arrive is the hard part, and Ole Miss does it about as well as anyone.
It is true, Ole Miss does a good job at retention. Mississippi State does as well, as our retention rate is 83%. This is very good in the current environment where transferring is simple and streamlined and students get FOMO by watching people at other colleges.
So where does it go from here? Nobody can tell you for certain, and anyone who hands you a single confident number is guessing. But the pieces that drive it are not a mystery. The entering class is shrinking. The biggest class the university ever brought in, the 5,972 freshmen from 2024, graduates out around 2028, and if the last two years are any guide, the class replacing it will be smaller. The national pool of college-age students is shrinking, the slide that colleges across the country are calling the enrollment cliff.
There is a quieter risk under that out-of-state number. A good share of Ole Miss's out-of-state students come from big states like Texas and Georgia, where the home flagship is hard to get into, so Ole Miss picks up students who do not get a spot there. If those universities feel that same cliff and start admitting more of their own residents, some of that overflow stays home, and Ole Miss's out-of-state pipeline tightens. It is a risk to watch, not something in this year's numbers, but it points the same direction as everything else.
That in-state gain is a credit to the recruiting office, but it is running into a wall of its own. The number of high school graduates in Mississippi is projected to fall about 16 percent by 2041, one of the steepest drops anywhere in the South,
Obviously, this affects us as well, and it seems that Ole Miss is stepping up their in-state recruiting efforts (something they have neglected because of that sweet, sweet OOS $$$$). State needs to continue to be the top choice for in-state students, but that pool is getting smaller. Enrollment will probably begin to flat line in the next couple of years.
Now look at what is still going up. In the enrollment breakdown I put the new supply at roughly 12,000 potential beds coming to the city and campus by 2028, between what is already under construction, the university's own projects, and what has been approved.
College View Phase 2 is going to add 527 new beds on campus by Fall 2028, but State will probably take some older dorms out when that opens. Starkville has not approved any massive new projects as far as I know, so the private market growth will be smaller. Rent should stay flat in Starkville, while it plummets in Oxford because of massive overbuilding.
Full article: https://www.cissellmanagement.com/blog/ole-miss-enrollment-2026-record-projection
Some highlights for discussion (My MSU-centric opinion in bold)
The University of Mississippi released its fall numbers: 28,960 students across all campuses, up 2 percent, the fourth straight record. 3,270 were at UMMC, which is included in this number.
Mississippi State announced 23,721, a 0.7% increase YoY. Meridian is probably around 800 students, so almost 23k in Starkville.
The headline says record, but the freshman class, the students who just showed up, came in at 5,363. That is down from 5,464 last year, which was already down from 5,972 the year before. Two straight years of a smaller entering class.
At State, the freshmen class is getting bigger. In 2024, we had 3,596 and that increased to 4,049 in 2025 (12.6% increase). We saw a 6% increase this year to 4,292. While Ole Miss has seen their freshmen drop over 10% in two years, State has seen a nearly 20% increase in the same time period.
This year 87.6 percent of last year's freshmen came back for year two, nearly 19 points above the national average, and that is to the university's credit. Holding onto students once they arrive is the hard part, and Ole Miss does it about as well as anyone.
It is true, Ole Miss does a good job at retention. Mississippi State does as well, as our retention rate is 83%. This is very good in the current environment where transferring is simple and streamlined and students get FOMO by watching people at other colleges.
So where does it go from here? Nobody can tell you for certain, and anyone who hands you a single confident number is guessing. But the pieces that drive it are not a mystery. The entering class is shrinking. The biggest class the university ever brought in, the 5,972 freshmen from 2024, graduates out around 2028, and if the last two years are any guide, the class replacing it will be smaller. The national pool of college-age students is shrinking, the slide that colleges across the country are calling the enrollment cliff.
There is a quieter risk under that out-of-state number. A good share of Ole Miss's out-of-state students come from big states like Texas and Georgia, where the home flagship is hard to get into, so Ole Miss picks up students who do not get a spot there. If those universities feel that same cliff and start admitting more of their own residents, some of that overflow stays home, and Ole Miss's out-of-state pipeline tightens. It is a risk to watch, not something in this year's numbers, but it points the same direction as everything else.
That in-state gain is a credit to the recruiting office, but it is running into a wall of its own. The number of high school graduates in Mississippi is projected to fall about 16 percent by 2041, one of the steepest drops anywhere in the South,
Obviously, this affects us as well, and it seems that Ole Miss is stepping up their in-state recruiting efforts (something they have neglected because of that sweet, sweet OOS $$$$). State needs to continue to be the top choice for in-state students, but that pool is getting smaller. Enrollment will probably begin to flat line in the next couple of years.
Now look at what is still going up. In the enrollment breakdown I put the new supply at roughly 12,000 potential beds coming to the city and campus by 2028, between what is already under construction, the university's own projects, and what has been approved.
College View Phase 2 is going to add 527 new beds on campus by Fall 2028, but State will probably take some older dorms out when that opens. Starkville has not approved any massive new projects as far as I know, so the private market growth will be smaller. Rent should stay flat in Starkville, while it plummets in Oxford because of massive overbuilding.
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