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12 Games left, what's our Record?

C

Cats192

Heisman
Apr 22, 2011
14,644
17,088
93
We've done this a few times, seems like a good time to revisit.


@UT--Win. Just feels like we should be fired up/locked in after 2
Arkansas--win
@Ole Miss--loss. Really good team on the road.
SC--win
vs TN--loss. Figure they're good enough we're due to split
@Texas--win
vs Vandy--win
@Alabama--loss. They're just so good and experienced
@Oklahoma--win
vs Auburn--win--I think we play up to our competition, hopefully everyone is healthy at this point, I think our guys are playing really hard in this one.
vs LSU--win
@Missour--loss. They're a very tough team, especially at home.

This makes us 8-4 the rest of the way. 22-9 regular season. We could definitely lose both TN games, Bama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Missou and go 6-6.

We should DEFINITELY win Arkansas, SC, LSU, Vandy at home

We SHOULD beat Texas and Oklahoma, but those will be tough road games too.

There's a world where we go 4-8 and finish 18-13, which would be brutal. I think we're a lot better than we showed in the Vandy game, and if we can get/stay healthy, better days are ahead.
 
rick64

rick64

Heisman
Jan 25, 2007
24,091
32,790
113
@UT Loss
Arkansas Win
@Ole Miss Loss
SC Win
vs TN Win
@Texas Win
vs VandyWin
@Alabama Loss
@Oklahoma Win
vs Auburn Loss
vs LSU Win
@Missouri Loss

7-5
 
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S

sk73

All-Conference
Feb 16, 2013
3,095
3,126
113
Home wins against Arkansas, Vandy and LSU. SC win on the road. Everything else is a maybe. Auburn and UT at home are great opportunities. I don't think we will be favored though.
 
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J

JonathanW_rivals

Heisman
Jan 3, 2003
145,534
15,709
0
MegaBlue05 said:
0-12 - this board after a loss.

If we happen to beat UT tomorrow, 12-0 - this board after a big win
Click to expand...
This ^ is the perfect answer.

As for me though, as a Statistician, I know that probabilities of wins is more predictive than simply saying W or L. I am assuming no further injuries, no Kriisa return, and Carr to miss the next 3 games (@UT, Ark, @Ole Miss). Here are my updated probabilities of winning each game, the sum of which would be my estimate for # of wins:
0.35 @UT
0.85 Arkansas
0.45 @Ole Miss
0.85 SC
0.6 vs TN
0.6 @Texas
0.8 vs Vandy
0.4 @Alabama
0.65 @Oklahoma
0.55 vs Auburn
0.9 vs LSU
0.6 @Missouri

If you look at each game separately, I am predicting us a >50% chance to win 9 games, so 9-3.
But a more precise way to do this is to sum up all the probabilities, which = 7.6, so 7.6-4.4, or if rounded 8-4.
 
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jedwar

jedwar

Heisman
Dec 30, 2002
18,833
30,381
113
L @UT
W Arkansas
L @Ole Miss
W SC
L UT
W @Texas
W Vandy
L @Alabama
L @Oklahoma
L Auburn
W LSU
L Missouri

5-7 but 7-5 wouldn't surprise me. Tough games with some really tough matchups. Couple that with injuries, inconsistent play and inconsistent lineups, not feeling rosey.
 
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W

WeWant9_rivals

Heisman
Dec 18, 2013
6,760
17,857
113
@UT L
Arkansas W
@Ole Miss W- picking this as my surprise road win
SC W
vs TN W
@Texas L
vs Vandy W
@Alabama L
@Oklahoma W
vs Auburn L
vs LSU W
@Missouri L

This team is hard to predict game to game and week to week. But my best stab at this is 7-5.
 
J

JonathanW_rivals

Heisman
Jan 3, 2003
145,534
15,709
0
jedwar said:
L @UT
W Arkansas
L @Ole Miss
W SC
L UT
W @Texas
W Vandy
L @Alabama
L @Oklahoma
L Auburn
W LSU
L Missouri

5-7 but 7-5 wouldn't surprise me. Tough games with some really tough matchups. Couple that with injuries, inconsistent play and inconsistent lineups, not feeling rosey.
Click to expand...
While I get what you are saying. But everyone has inconsistent play and/or other issues. For example, look at UT (who you having us lose to both at UT and in Rupp). This is the UT team that lost at HOME to Florida by 30, and it was a 16+ point game the entire 2nd half; the UT team that also lost at Vandy the past 10 days; the UT team that shot 31% overall and 18% from 3 vs Auburn (was actually at 7% from 3, until late in 2nd half)
 
jedwar

jedwar

Heisman
Dec 30, 2002
18,833
30,381
113
JonathanW said:
While I get what you are saying. But everyone has inconsistent play and/or other issues. For example, look at UT (who you having us lose to both at UT and in Rupp). This is the UT team that lost at HOME to Florida by 30, and it was a 16+ point game the entire 2nd half; the UT team that also lost at Vandy the past 10 days; the UT team that shot 31% overall and 18% from 3 vs Auburn (was actually at 7% from 3, until late in 2nd half)
Click to expand...
Would love to see us beat them. But I think they are a hard matchup and will keep us from getting out of the 60's, which was the magical number in 4 of our losses. Maybe they will have issues scoring against us. Hope so. And I think UT lost at Florida, but still a bad loss to lose by 30.
 
G

G-PIP

All-American
Mar 14, 2014
5,286
5,964
0
The thing that bothers me in trying to guess the record going forward is the health of Carr. If he can play AND move without restriction, then I'd go 8-4 or 7-5. But without a healthy Carr I would thrilled with 6-6.
 
T

TopCatCal

Heisman
Dec 10, 2012
5,483
21,434
0
Cats192 said:
We've done this a few times, seems like a good time to revisit.


@UT--Win. Just feels like we should be fired up/locked in after 2
Arkansas--win
@Ole Miss--loss. Really good team on the road.
SC--win
vs TN--loss. Figure they're good enough we're due to split
@Texas--win
vs Vandy--win
@Alabama--loss. They're just so good and experienced
@Oklahoma--win
vs Auburn--win--I think we play up to our competition, hopefully everyone is healthy at this point, I think our guys are playing really hard in this one.
vs LSU--win
@Missour--loss. They're a very tough team, especially at home.

This makes us 8-4 the rest of the way. 22-9 regular season. We could definitely lose both TN games, Bama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Missou and go 6-6.

We should DEFINITELY win Arkansas, SC, LSU, Vandy at home

We SHOULD beat Texas and Oklahoma, but those will be tough road games too.

There's a world where we go 4-8 and finish 18-13, which would be brutal. I think we're a lot better than we showed in the Vandy game, and if we can get/stay healthy, better days are ahead.
Click to expand...
Without Brandon Carr,, Kerr Kriisa and a less than 100% Lamont Butler & playing in the strongest conference in the country, a 7-5 record is about as good as we can hope for.
 
U

UKWildcats1987

Heisman
Sep 9, 2021
18,819
32,067
113
rick64 said:
@UT Loss
Arkansas Win
@Ole Miss Loss
SC Win
vs TN Win
@Texas Win
vs VandyWin
@Alabama Loss
@Oklahoma Win
vs Auburn Loss
vs LSU Win
@Missouri Loss

7-5
Click to expand...

I'd say this.

With Carrs unknown and Butlers lingering issues, it's hard to predict.
 
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C

cathouse_rivals216755

Heisman
Dec 30, 2002
10,641
20,618
0
I am the biggest Pope loving, UK Homer on this board.
I am also a realist.
Worst case scenario: 4-8
Best case: 6-6

8-10, 9-9 in the SEC has been my realistic expectation since November.

And I still love my team. If we can get to the NCAA tournament with a decent (4/5) seed, the first 2 games should be a cakewalk compared to what we are dealing with in the SEC every freaking game.
 
D

Digger-Cat

All-Conference
Oct 31, 2024
2,317
4,214
0
JonathanW said:
While I get what you are saying. But everyone has inconsistent play and/or other issues. For example, look at UT (who you having us lose to both at UT and in Rupp). This is the UT team that lost at HOME to Florida by 30, and it was a 16+ point game the entire 2nd half; the UT team that also lost at Vandy the past 10 days; the UT team that shot 31% overall and 18% from 3 vs Auburn (was actually at 7% from 3, until late in 2nd half)
Click to expand...
Tennessee didn't lose to Florida at home, that game was at Florida.

But, we can't compare UK to others, because teams are more locked in when UK comes to town. We get their absolute best shot.

There are certainly times when Tennessee, Alabama and Auburn also get the full attention when they go on the road, but nevertheless, the odds of us catching teams sleeping on us, or not at their best, are slim to none.

With the injuries we are dealing with, the very noticable regression, Brea in a slump and Williams playing lazy, I'm going with 5-7. I just think the SEC us wearing this team down and honestly, I think we're going to eek out a couple of those 5 wins.
 
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D

Digger-Cat

All-Conference
Oct 31, 2024
2,317
4,214
0
TopCatCal said:
Without Brandon Carr,, Kerr Kriisa and a less than 100% Lamont Butler & playing in the strongest conference in the country, a 7-5 record is about as good as we can hope for.
Click to expand...
If we could combine both players, that would be awesome. šŸ˜‚
 
B

Blueisbest

All-American
Mar 22, 2003
24,628
5,325
0
I'll go with 7-5. We split against UT, Beat Arkansas, USCjr, LSU, Vandy at home, Texas or Oklahoma, not both. and steal a road game against either Ole Miss, Mizzou, or Alabama.
 
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