1a Playoff prediction

[Mitchell county mountie]

1aa west

1 East Surry
2 Swain
3 North Rowan
4 Polk
5 Mount Airy
6 Starmount
7 Avery
8 MICS
9 Bessemer City
10 Community School of Davidson
11 Pine Lake Prep
12 East Wilkes

1aa East

1 Tarboro
2 Princeton
3 Holmes
4 Granville Central
5 Manteo
6 South Stokes
7 Hobbton
8 Lakewood
9 South Stanly
10 Louisberg
11 Riverside
12 East Carteret

1a West

1 Mitchell
2 Elkin
3 Thomas Jefferson
4 Robbinsville
5 Murphy
6 Winston Salem Prep
7 Hayesville
8 Allegany
9 Andrews
10 North Stokes
11 Union Academy
12 East Columbus

1a East

1 North Edgecombe
2 Rosewood
3 Washington
4 Gates County
5 Pamlico
6 Northside
7 Northampton
8 Union
9 South Creek
10 Southside
11 North Duplin
12 Bear Grass Charter

These are with predicted conference champs. I have the following teams winning their conference:
Tarboro
Mitchell
Swain
Granville Central
East Columbus
East Carteret
Bear Grass Charter
North Rown
Thomas Jefferson
Elkin
East Surry
Holmes
North Edgecombe
Princeton

 

[Moparforever]

So no bias for the WHC champ

 

[mbdfan_rivals121259]

If Mitchell's ADM really is 501, there's a good chance they will be 1AA

 

[Mitchell county mountie]

So no bias for the WHC champ

We are in a split conference, whoever wins the 1a side, gets seeded as a conference champ. If there were a threeway tie, say between Mitchell, Heritage, and Polk, And Polk beat Mitchell, they would be conference champs, and get an automatic berth, and Mitchell would be seeded as a qualifier due to rank.

 

[Mitchell county mountie]

If Mitchell's ADM really is 501, there's a good chance they will be 1AA

The cutoff was between South Stokes (500) and Union Academy (495). So it could make a difference

 

[Moparforever]

We are in a split conference, whoever wins the 1a side, gets seeded as a conference champ. If there were a threeway tie, say between Mitchell, Heritage, and Polk, And Polk beat Mitchell, they would be conference champs, and get an automatic berth, and Mitchell would be seeded as a qualifier due to rank.

I know I was just poking fun. It’s hard to come across in writing sometimes

 

[Mitchell county mountie]

I know I was just poking fun. It’s hard to come across in writing sometimes

Lol i know. I just didnt want someone to see my screen name, and see Mitchell at #1 and think it was opinion based...

 

[Old Mountaineer]

If Mitchell's ADM really is 501, there's a good chance they will be 1AA

You just never know for schools on the bubble. Last year Hobbton was the smallest 1AA at 501 but in 2016 in 1A Mitchell 506 , Manteo 502. And let's say if last year if one more larger team like Avery had gotten into the playoffs instead of one of the smaller teams then Hobbton would have been in the 1A.

 

[Mitchell county mountie]

You just never know for schools on the bubble. Last year Hobbton was the smallest 1AA at 501 but in 2016 in 1A Mitchell 506 , Manteo 502. And let's say if last year if one more larger team like Avery had gotten into the playoffs instead of one of the smaller teams then Hobbton would have been in the 1A.

It is interesting that the line is consistently around the 500 mark, considering the changes in realignment, number of teams who qualify ect...
There is alot of football to be played tho. Shoot, East Surry could go east, Mitchell could go big, Avery could win out and get an auto bye lol. So much could change...

 

[TarVikes]

Edenton should be 2. Princeton is not very good. Edenton would put a running clock on them.

 

[FarWestNorthCarolinaSports]

You do realize how seeding works right? Its nothing to do with who could beat who. Its about confidence finish

 

[TarVikes]

Common sense says the better teams get higher seeds?

 

[FarWestNorthCarolinaSports]

Really?
Then why did Robbinsville travel to TJ last year. Rville won 30 something to 12 i think.
Couple years ago we traveled to MIC and was up huge before we called the dogs off.

 

[Wildcat10fan]

It is interesting that the line is consistently around the 500 mark, considering the changes in realignment, number of teams who qualify ect...
There is alot of football to be played tho. Shoot, East Surry could go east, Mitchell could go big, Avery could win out and get an auto bye lol. So much could change...

Yeah that is very strange that the cutoff line stays around 495 to 500 every single year

 

[Old Mountaineer]

All regular season conference champions (and top teams from split conferences) are seeded first by their MaxPreps adjusted rankings. All second-place automatic qualifiers are seeded next by their MaxPreps adjusted rankings. Then any third-place automatic qualifiers in (conferences with 9+ teams )are seeded by their MaxPreps adjusted rankings.
Once all automatic qualifiers have been seeded, the at-large teams are seeded behind them. All conference tournament champions and at-large teams, regardless of where they finish in their respective conference standings, are seeded based on their MaxPreps adjusted rankings.
In a split conference say 1A/2A conference the top 1A & 2A is a automatic qualifiers as long as they have a .500 record or finish 3rd in the conference. If the top 2 finishers in the conference are in the same classification the second place team is also an automatic qualifier.

 

[Griddie]

Common sense says the better teams get higher seeds?

Maxpreps, the NCHSAA and common sense

 

[FarWestNorthCarolinaSports]

Like i said tarvike. We was the lower seed many times when everyone knew we would win. Better team does not always get higher seed. Common sense SHOULD tell u that.
Mitchell murphy and Robbinsville are the 3 best 1a teams. Do you think we will be seed 1st 2nd and 3ed?
Heck no.

 

[Mitchell county mountie]

[QUOTE="BK13T-$, Common sense SHOULD tell u that.
Mitchell murphy and Robbinsville are the 3 best 1a teams. Do you think we will be seed 1st 2nd and 3ed?
Heck no.[/QUOTE]
Nope. Cause Robbinsville and Murphy both cant be seeded 1st as conference champs. Shoot, Mitchell could lose to Polk and be seeded as low as 6 or 7...

 

[Yosef1381]

Mitchell will most likely be 1aa.

 

[Eastcoastman1957]

Are you saying East Columbus or West Columbus could be 1A conf. champs with only 1 win between both teams? Playoffs are a complete joke man. Watered down first 2 or 3 rounds.

 

[Big Guy 4015]

Mountie....no North Stanly????

 

[Old Mountaineer]

Are you saying East Columbus or West Columbus could be 1A conf. champs with only 1 win between both teams? Playoffs are a complete joke man. Watered down first 2 or 3 rounds.

In a split conference a team must have an overall winning percentage of at least .500 or finish in the top three spots of the overall standings to be seeded as a conference champion for thier classification.

 

[TarVikes]

https://www.highschoolot.com/2019-1a-1aa-football-playoff-projections/18689532/

Updated projection

 

[Old Mountaineer]

https://www.highschoolot.com/2019-1a-1aa-football-playoff-projections/18689532/

Updated projection

In thier 1AA projection I wonder how they came up with North Rowan seeded #2. Right now in the adjusted rankings they're #27 and Swain is #7 ,even if Swain loses to Robbinsville they more then likely win they're last two games and still have a better record then NR plus a better strength of schedule rating. In fact if Starmount wins out they ranked #16 with a higher str rating as well.

 

[Emmasdaddy1]

So how can we determine what the actual ADM enrollment is? There is an online site, Public School Review, that says Mitchell has 526 for this year and Murphy has 503. If thats accurate and the cut off is around 500 that could get interesting

 

[FarWestNorthCarolinaSports]

Murphy will be small. Mitchell might go up though

 

[FarWestNorthCarolinaSports]

I think they go by the first 10 day enrollment.

 

[Old Mountaineer]

So how can we determine what the actual ADM enrollment is? There is an online site, Public School Review, that says Mitchell has 526 for this year and Murphy has 503. If thats accurate and the cut off is around 500 that could get interesting

It states they're going by 2018 ADM numbers for these predictions. Mitchell reported 501 to the DPI but that number could go up if the NCHSAA add Maryland Early college students.
The cutoff does seem to linger around 500 but they won't know until they have the 48 teams. Last year Hobbton was in the 1AA with 501 but in 2016 Mitchell was in the 1A with 506.

 

[Mitchell county mountie]

So how can we determine what the actual ADM enrollment is? There is an online site, Public School Review, that says Mitchell has 526 for this year and Murphy has 503. If thats accurate and the cut off is around 500 that could get interesting

those numbers are from the 2015-2016 school year. they haven't been updated in a while.

 

[Emmasdaddy1]

Im sure the website is not that reliable but it said 2019. Seems like a confusing system. If they use the numbers from the first 10 days why do they wait till November to release them? Bear with me. Im just trying to get an understanding of how this works.

 

[Old Mountaineer]

Im sure the website is not that reliable but it said 2019. Seems like a confusing system. If they use the numbers from the first 10 days why do they wait till November to release them? Bear with me. Im just trying to get an understanding of how this works.

They're not using the numbers from the first 10 days. The numbers you get from the first days of school are the whole county , if the county has more then one high school or a early college it all counted together. Then each school reports thier ADM numbers to the Department of Public Instruction. The NCHSAA pulls those numbers then say if a county has a early college for example who's students are eligible to participate in that counties high schools sports then those students adm are added to the high schools adm. So the ADM numbers that's been reported on other threads could go up depending on the circumstances.