Theoretical debates are the best kind. They never endLeave it to a NU board to have the longest active thread be about math and not the basketball team.
2023-24 NET ratings thread
- Thread starter Styre
- Start date
I remain concerned about it if we end up 13-7, it's a non issue. 11-9? Possible issue. That's why they call it a bubble. It would be sad if some Dec Q4 loss outweighs 2 top 10 wins
they'd have a better shot than us. Big Ten tournament would matter.
Izzo probably has 40% of the votes.
We went from 47 to 43 on Kenpom and our efficiency margin increased by 2.7%. Purdue stayed at #2 and their efficiency margin dropped by 1%. Don't know how much it would've changed if Collins waited an extra 1.7 seconds to go nuclear.
Went from 41 to 37 on Torvik, Barthag increased by 1.7%. Purdue remained at #2 and their Barthag dropped by 0.25%.
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For KenPom its is essentially (40/45) * 9.
He does some averaging that would tweak this a bit, but basically its about an 8 point loss.
Thats less of a losing margin than what the algorithm expected, so we move up a bit.
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Can’t take them lightly whatsoever. We need this one and both next week at home.
Also for all the margin of victory/efficiency people out there, last night’s game (final score) is exhibit A in terms of why it is a poor choice as an evaluation metric.
For what its worth, because KenPom is looking at points per possession, the whole game counts, including the 4 Collins free throws.
Now, a simpleton like me has his own ratings and chose to handle overtime differently. It was, after all, a tie after 40 minutes. Games get really squirrelly in overtime. So, because my approach allows it, I use HALF of the final margin if the game goes to OT. I use 0.1 as the final margin if it goes to double OT.
Is that rocket science? No, but its better than what Ken Pom does - which is treat an OT game like every other game. Common sense helps improve the ratings.
More evidence of the absurdity, Xavier has zero wins over top 25 teams. Best wins are Cincy and St. John’s.
Those brackets have not updated to count the Purdue game. Most of them have us seeded 7-9. Of course there is plenty of time to move up or down, but for now we are solid.
The good news on that front is that we’re ranked considerably higher than MSU in RPI. But we’re also ranked lower than Grand Canyon, Indiana State, Princeton and 7-loss Syracuse.
The joke's on them, all D&D did was trick kids into thinking it was fun to search appendices for the right tables and do math problems.
For what its worth... I updated my rankings last night... I have two systems. Both showing promise.
One is based on points scored and allowed with games weighted more heavily if the teams are comparably rated.
The other method is based on probability - the probability that this team beats that team. Margin of victory is not as important. Victory is important.
NU is #32 in the points method. #34 in the Probability of Winning method.
Michigan State is #20 in the Pts method, #21 in the Probability of Winning method.
Xavier is #44 and #46.
Nebraska is #47 and #37.
Alabama is #9 is Pts, #11 in Probability.
Teams like Villanova , Saint Mary's (#63), Utah (#55) and Texas (#53) don't fare well in the Probability method.
A rough week, but it didn't hurt NU much at all, as they currently sit at #58.
QUAD 1 (4-5)
H #2 Purdue - W
A #2 Purdue - L
A #13 Wisconsin - L
H #14 Illinois - W
A #14 Illinois - L
H #17 Dayton - W
H #22 Michigan State - W
N #44 Mississippi State - L
A #52 Nebraska - L
QUAD 2 (2-1)
H #68 Ohio State - W
A #91 Minnesota - L
A #99 Penn State - W
QUAD 3 (2-0)
H #78 Maryland - W
N #135 Arizona State - W
QUAD 4 (7-1)
N #206 Rhode Island - W
H #280 Chicago State - L
H #281 Jackson State - W
H #287 Northern Illinois - W
H #288 Binghamton - W
H #292 Western Michigan - W
A #315 DePaul - W
H #361 Detroit Mercy - W
This week features a Quad 2 home game against Nebraska and a Quad 3 home game against Penn State.
QUAD 1 (4-5)
H #2 Purdue - W
A #2 Purdue - L
A #13 Wisconsin - L
H #14 Illinois - W
A #14 Illinois - L
H #17 Dayton - W
H #22 Michigan State - W
N #44 Mississippi State - L
A #52 Nebraska - L
QUAD 2 (2-1)
H #68 Ohio State - W
A #91 Minnesota - L
A #99 Penn State - W
QUAD 3 (2-0)
H #78 Maryland - W
N #135 Arizona State - W
QUAD 4 (7-1)
N #206 Rhode Island - W
H #280 Chicago State - L
H #281 Jackson State - W
H #287 Northern Illinois - W
H #288 Binghamton - W
H #292 Western Michigan - W
A #315 DePaul - W
H #361 Detroit Mercy - W
This week features a Quad 2 home game against Nebraska and a Quad 3 home game against Penn State.
A win vs. Nebby adds much more value in terms of B1G rankings. I think a top 4 finish is vital.
Cats have seven games against teams they are within one game of in terms of record in the conference and two games against basement dwellers. Need to go at least 6-3 over the last nine to feel comfortable.
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We also need to win this one to keep Nebraska below us - their remaining schedule could not be easier. After us, they have 6 games against the bottom 5 teams and one at home against Minnesota. Their hardest remaining game is at OSU.
An interesting tidbit from Bubble Watch this week:
In response to a reader conversation about strength of record, and whether or not Bubble Watch should emphasize its use proactively (versus interpreting what metrics we think the committee cares about), NCAA Director of Media Coordination/Statistics David Worlock popped in with this:
This is a pretty significant development! For years, we have included strength of schedule as the headline metric alongside NET (and before it, RPI), because we assumed those were the first two numbers the committee itself would emphasize — the two numbers that best summarized a team’s standing in the world. Of course strength of schedule doesn’t make the most sense in that role. Strength of schedule is a pretty flimsy secondary number that just tells us what a team’s schedule looked like free of much context; strength of record actually tells us how a team performed against that schedule. But the latter is much newer, and it’s one of four “advanced” metrics on the team sheet, and we’ve rarely heard much detail about how the committee approached the use of those numbers in its process. We assumed they still kept the old ways.
If this is not the case, well, great news. Strength of record is, well, stronger. It is more useful for our purposes especially, more immediately descriptive about how a team has earned its wins and losses and better able to demonstrate (where applicable) the difference between a team’s predictive metrics and the actual strength of its results. Teasing out the nuance in those two measurements is a big part of what we do here.
(For more on strength of record, here is the ESPN Sports Analytics Team’s description of the metric.)
In the meantime, it doesn’t change that much; we still have to dig in to all of the facets of a team sheet to really compare and contrast two bubble hopefuls anyway. This is the same column as before, then, built on the same principles (and the same stupid jokes and tangents that have nothing to do with NCAA Tournament selection at all) just with more useful data front and center.
So that’s what you’ll see next to each team’s NET number below, today and moving forward: SOR, not SOS. It’s just one letter; it’s also a pretty big deal.
So, for those worrying about our NET rating, at least there is confirmation that SOR will be considered, where we net out much better.NU falls from 32 to 37 in my "Points Matter" rating
NU falls from 34 to 43 in my "Probability of Winning" rating.
damaging loss to Minnesota when we were slight favorites.
NU falls from 34 to 43 in my "Probability of Winning" rating.
damaging loss to Minnesota when we were slight favorites.
Northwestern (15-7, 6-5; NET: 58, SOR: 31): Very few teams in college hoops have been as entertaining as Northwestern this season, from the first couple of weeks of December (when NU beat Purdue and lost to Chicago State on the exact same floor) to last week, when Chris Collins uncorked one of the all-time great late-game ejection routines, making time to shake hands with Matt Painter and Zach Edey on his compulsorily early journey out of Mackey Arena. It was very funny. The tossing followed a valiant performance in a 105-96 overtime loss against Purdue, when Boo Buie made 7-of-11 from 3 and nearly did enough to match Purdue’s 1.38 (!!) points per trip. Of course, Northwestern being Northwestern, Collins’ team gave away a late eight-point lead at Minnesota, recovered to force overtime at the buzzer, and then gave away a 12-1 run to the Golden Gophers in OT. Sure they did. Being a fan of this team seems harrowing, but they’re good fun for the rest of us.
Ahh, a fellow subscriber to Eamonn Brennan's bubble watch! I appreciated that Strength of Record is a consideration in the review process and replacing Strength of Schedule. Just keep winnin and the SOR will rise.
I don't pay for that much media, but once I dropped the Athletic when all of my favorite writers left, it felt worth giving him some coin, I love his writing.
Hey, all Chicago State needs to do is get up to number 160 to be Quad 3!!
They win about 20 more straight they should be right up there!
A couple of games ago they came up with a big win vs. East West University 131-55!!
They win about 20 more straight they should be right up there!
Lunardi has us as a 9 seed.
Men's Bracketology: Florida is taking national title contender form
The defending national champions are building a case to move up the bracket -- and as a threat to repeat.
www.espn.com