2027 Expected Points - and other stuff

[Wrestleknownothing]

The new expected points model is here. I know. You could not be more excited.

Here is a taste.



And for the full experience you can read all about it here.

2027 NCAA Expected Points Model | Wrestling.Guru

Summer is almost over. What better time to add some wrestling math to your summer reading list? It is time to reveal the 2027 NCAA Expected Points Model. As ...

wrestling.guru

 

[OAMC99]

You know I really don't understand what I'm looking at here but I'm glad it's there and I'm thankful to you for taking the time to do it.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

You know I really don't understand what I'm looking at here but I'm glad it's there and I'm thankful to you for taking the time to do it.

That makes two of us. Don't tell the others.

 

[Chasingthirty-five]

That makes two of us. Don't tell the others.

What specifically in the data drops the total for top finishers? IIRC each guy who won last year scored 22+ points, yet the graph you shared comes in just sub 20 for the top spot.

I’m guessing it’s something to do with older data points lowering the average but figured I’d ask.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

What specifically in the data drops the total for top finishers? IIRC each guy who won last year scored 22+ points, yet the graph you shared comes in just sub 20 for the top spot.

I’m guessing it’s something to do with older data points lowering the average but figured I’d ask.

It is based on seed rather than finish. Historically only half of the #1 seeds win (and score 20+). That was true last year as well.

 

[Chasingthirty-five]

It is based on seed rather than finish. Historically only half of the #1 seeds win (and score 20+). That was true last year as well.

Ahhhh *insert Homer Simpson gif*

Thanks.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Ahhhh *insert Homer Simpson gif*

Thanks.

I prefer this Homer Simpson meme