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2A/2AA Bracketology Projections

GrizzlyDevil

GrizzlyDevil

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Nov 22, 2011
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tarheelg said:
Well....right now, as this week's rankings stand, Carrboro is the next one in, they would be big, pushing Newton-Conover down to small....but remember that most of us do not expect the rankings to stay the same after this Friday night....Newton-Conover and SW Edgecombe could both still go 2AA if another team or two above cut line currently projected to be in, get bumped out of the playoffs.....Bandys (if they stay in playoffs), Shelby, North Surry, Bunker Hill (if they stay in playoffs) could still go small....this could be the first step in pushing Shelby to the small 2A....if Bandys loses to North Lincoln, there is a very good chance they get bumped out of the playoffs, putting Shelby the next one to go....of course Carrboro's game at Webb at is no gimmie, they could still be out...Forest Hills is next in this week's rankings, but they might be ineligible from a fight last week, and play a team that might be ineligible from a fight two months ago....JK is next but they have WRH....Richlands is next but they have SWO...West Iredell is next, they have Foard, probably the most winnable of any of these teams listed....could Bandys and Carrboro make the field even with a loss this week?? Maybe, depending on what all of these teams do....Even teams at 70 and below could come into play for the last wild card spot or two like Andrews (if they beat Wheatmore), Greene Central (if they beat Washington), Dixon (if they beat Trask), Central Davidson (if they beat West Davidson), and Mount Pleasant (if they beat West Stanly)...What did Willie Wonka once say?? The suspense is killing me; I hope it lasts
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I know you say that Shelby is the next to go...but Shelby and West Lincoln have the same ADM...so who would be pushed down and who would stay? How does that get decided? Will 2AA teams donate large amounts of money to the NCHSAA to make Shelby a 2A?
 
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tarheelg

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GrizzlyDevil said:
I know you say that Shelby is the next to go...but Shelby and West Lincoln have the same ADM...so who would be pushed down and who would stay? How does that get decided? Will 2AA teams donate large amounts of money to the NCHSAA to make Shelby a 2A?
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I believe they would draw for it....and Andrews has same ADM too...if they beat Wheatmore and all these other bubble teams lose, they could be in the mix too
 
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tarheelg

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Just revised 2AA/2A to reflect Anson not being in, have Carrboro replacing them for the moment, but they really need to beat Webb to lock down that wild card berth and not leave it up to the computer
 
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tarheelg

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Probably still out of the playoffs, they might steal the very last wild card spot, but I'm not counting on it
 
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tarheelg

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GUT FEELING LAST MINUTE REVISION PROJECTIONS, attempting the unthinkable and trying to guess how the AMPR computer will rank teams after Friday night's results. It is obvious that there are 10 or 11 teams in play for the last 4 or 5 wild card spots, and we have absolutely no idea what it's going to say, but here is my best guess of what I'm expecting, noticing the rankings' tendencies

-My 2AA/2A cut line: tie between Shelby/West Lincoln (smallest 2AA) & Bandys (largest 2A)

-In 2AA, my West/East cut line: between North Surry (easternmost team in West) & Salisbury (westernmost team in East)

-In 2A, my West/East cut line: between Bartlett Yancey (easternmost team in West) & Red Springs (westernmost team in East)

-AMPR shown in (x).....AND YES, I KNOW I HAVE SOME TEAMS IN THE WRONG ORDER BASED ON LAST WEEK'S RANKINGS; THAT'S WHY I REFERRED TO MY PROJECTIONS BELOW AS GUT FEELING PROJECTIONS ON WHAT THE FINAL RANKINGS MIGHT BE


-2AA West
Tier of 1s
1 Shelby (1) (could drop to 2A if cut line moves; could come down a draw)
2 North Lincoln (6)
3 Hibriten (10)
4 Smoky Mountain (27)
5 Ashe (41)
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Tier of 2s
6 Burns (4)
7 Maiden (25)
8 North Surry (42) (could go to 2AA East, would be the first to move if the cut line moved)
9 Bunker Hill (64)
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Tier of WCs
10 Pisgah (15)
11 East Lincoln (19)
12 West Lincoln (31) (could drop to 2A if cut line moves; could come down a draw)
13 South Point (44)
14 Wilkes Central (46)
15 Rutherfordton-Spindale Central (57)
16 West Iredell (68) (just a gut feeling on computer rankings)
-Notes: If the East/West cutline moves, others that could move to 2AA West include: (in this order) Salisbury, North Davidson, Oak Grove, Ledford

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2AA East
Tier of 1s
1 Randleman (8)
2 Oak Grove (21)
3 South Granville (39) (just a gut feeling on computer rankings)
4 Currituck (38)
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Tier of 2s
5 Washington (16)
6 Salisbury (29) (could move to 2AA West)
7 East Duplin (48) (just a gut feeling on computer rankings)
8 Croatan (40)
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Tier of 3s
9 Ledford (50)
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Tier of WCs
10 Hertford (9)
11 St. Pauls (28)
12 North Lenoir (45)
13 North Davidson (51)
14 Andrews (70) (just a gut feeling on computer rankings)
15 Bunn (69) (just a gut feeling on computer rankings)
16 Morehead (81)
-Notes: Nash Central (61), Richlands (67) and Mount Pleasant (74) (would be near East/West cut line) are all teams on the playoff bubble that have to wait and see what the computer says to see if they make the playoffs, I'm listing Andrews & Bunn as in, but I know the ranking could very well throw us all for a loop
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2A West
Tier of 1s
1 Mountain Heritage (3)
2 Reidsville (12) (gut feeling, probably not much disagreement here)
3 Brevard (11)
4 West Stokes (35)
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Tier of 2s
5 Eastern Randolph (30)
6 Bartlett Yancey (33)
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Tier of WCs
7 Chase (22)
8 Newton-Conover (34) (near cut line, could go to 2AA West)
9 Owen (37)
10 Thomasville (43)
11 Providence Grove (54)
12 Draughn (55)
13 North Wilkes (56)
14 Hendersonville (59) (just a gut feeling about the rankings)
15 Forbush (58)
16 Bandys (62) (just a gut feeling about the rankings)

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2A East
Tier of 1s
1 Clinton (2)
2 SouthWest Edgecombe (7) (just a gut feeling on the rankings)
3 Northeastern (5)
4 West Craven (23) (just a gut feeling on the rankings)
4 Red Springs (20)
6 Southwest Onslow (36)
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Tier of 2s
7 Whiteville (18)
8 Beddingfield (32)
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Tier of WCs
9 Wallace-Rose Hill (17)
10 Ayden-Grifton (26) (just a gut feeling on the rankings)
11 Midway (24)
12 Goldsboro (47)
13 Kinston (52)
14 Fairmont (53)
15 East Bladen (60)
16 James Kenan (66) (just a gut feeling on the rankings)

-Other Notes: If Andrews (70) does make the playoffs, they are currently listed in 2AA East, but would be near the cut line and could go 2A East
 
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Owen Stampede

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Jul 20, 2006
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Well I guess we have to wait on maxpreps to release the new rating then wait on the states adjustment then maybe we will see them
 
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rambbq

All-Conference
Nov 13, 2002
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that may push Shelby down to 2A....the long awaited match between Lions and Rams???
 
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TGT2

All-Conference
Sep 18, 2001
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jungleguy105 said:
New projections, seems like Cummings won the tie breaker and it’s projected to be in 2AA East
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Cummings was listed No. 5 on Simmons strength of schedule and the Cavs won a playoff game last year so they're not as bad as a 2-9 record indicates. Best defense in the conference other than Reidsville.
If what you say is true, and Carrboro (7-3) got third in the draw, that will leave 9-2 Bartlett Yancey on the outside looking in due to the leap-frog rule unless they let both Carrboro and BY in as at-large teams.
 
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shadysidebuc

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Nov 9, 2019
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Right now, Simmons is projecting Carrboro, Cummings and BY all in. Another site has Cummings and BY in and Carrboro out. Tough day for somebody.
 
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tarheelg

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Sep 21, 2001
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shadysidebuc said:
Right now, Simmons is projecting Carrboro, Cummings and BY all in. Another site has Cummings and BY in and Carrboro out. Tough day for somebody.
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I think that presupposes that Cummings won draw for 2nd.....I heard that BY did, and Cummings 3rd, Carrboro 4th, so I only put in BY
 
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