2A/2AA Playoff Projections (GrizzlyDevil)

[tarheelg]

So you're saying that the AMPR breaks tie instead of a drawing?

Well, it's not supposed to......but in these conference meetings, it might happen *wink wink, nudge nudge* that the draw just happens to come out in the same order of the rankings....remember if it does, it means more teams from that conference would make the playoffs, avoiding being locked out by the leap frog rule

 

[TGT2]

If Cummings or Carrboro make the field, that adds another 2AA team into the mix.

 

[tarheelg]

So if Mt Heritage loses to Polk this Friday does that keep them a #1 seed and if Brevard loses to Pisgah will that keep them a # 2 seed. Or will Reidsville move up any?

Good question, you never know what the computer will spit out....If I was Mtn Heritage, I would want to make sure I beat Polk....Brevard will probably stay in Tier of 1s no matter what because even in 3 way tie, Pisgah & SM going 2AA while Brevard going small 2A, but yes their ranking could drop, meaning seeding within that tier could definitely change

 

[tarheelg]

If Cummings or Carrboro make the field, that adds another 2AA team into the mix.

Yes, and that's the kind of thing happening 2 or 3 times could bump Shelby to small 2A

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Yes the Mtn 6 would work out that way.....EXCEPT after posts yesterday, I was messaging somebody about this and it hit me....I THINK (could be wrong) the odd one out in this situation is always going to be a wild card and not a 2 because if the league only gets 2 auto bids, then the two teams gettings 1s exhausted that leagues auto bids....only exception in 2A/2AA would be the Central Carolina where they get 3 auto bids....but it's only possible to have a 3 way tie for 1st if the unthinkable happens and Oak Grove loses to East Davidson

I would tend to believe that is correct. But it still just doesn't sit right that a conference's 2 auto bids are both Tier 1s haha...it is what it is. If you win all your games you don't have to worry about it.

I'll reshuffle what I have and spit out a revision.

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

tarheelg...question:

Just as an example - Looking at the Costal 8 with SW Onslow and Croatan. That conference gets two auto bids and I have SW Onslow finishing 1st and Croatan finishing 2nd. Since SW Onslow is 2A and Croatan is 2AA, are they both considered Tier 1's? Or do I have it right making SW Onslow Tier 1 and Croatan a Tier 2?

 

[NDApp]

Yes the Mtn 6 would work out that way.....EXCEPT after posts yesterday, I was messaging somebody about this and it hit me....I THINK (could be wrong) the odd one out in this situation is always going to be a wild card and not a 2 because if the league only gets 2 auto bids, then the two teams gettings 1s exhausted that leagues auto bids....only exception in 2A/2AA would be the Central Carolina where they get 3 auto bids....but it's only possible to have a 3 way tie for 1st if the unthinkable happens and Oak Grove loses to East Davidson

If Oak Grove lost to East Davidson, which is highly unlikely, there would be a four way tie for first with Oak Grove, Salisbury, Thomasville and the winner of North Davidson/Ledford.

 

[tarheelg]

tarheelg...question:

Just as an example - Looking at the Costal 8 with SW Onslow and Croatan. That conference gets two auto bids and I have SW Onslow finishing 1st and Croatan finishing 2nd. Since SW Onslow is 2A and Croatan is 2AA, are they both considered Tier 1's? Or do I have it right making SW Onslow Tier 1 and Croatan a Tier 2?

As long as SWO beats Richlands, they will be a 1, and Croatan a 2.....If Richlands wins, and Croatan wins this week, and you get a 3 way tie, then the weird thing happens

 

[tarheelg]

If Oak Grove lost to East Davidson, which is highly unlikely, there would be a four way tie for first with Oak Grove, Salisbury, Thomasville and the winner of North Davidson/Ledford.

Ah yes, 4 way ties are usually easier to break unless all 4 teams went 2-2 against each other, which probably wouldn't be the case since the loser of ND/Led game would have beat some of the ones in 4 way tie, I haven't thought that far ahead because I really don't expect Oak Grove to lose to ED

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

As long as SWO beats Richlands, they will be a 1, and Croatan a 2.....If Richlands wins, and Croatan wins this week, and you get a 3 way tie, then the weird thing happens

Got it, the weird thing comes out to play when a tie happens. Thanks.

 

[tarheelg]

Got it, the weird thing comes out to play when a tie happens. Thanks.

And only unbreakable 3 way ties, if there's a 2 way tie, then those two played head to head and one will get a 1 and the other will get a 2

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

And only unbreakable 3 way ties, if there's a 2 way tie, then those two played head to head and one will get a 1 and the other will get a 2

Naturally

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Alright so after factoring in the weird thing it turns out that 2A East/West didn't change at all...it only shuffled the seeding for 2AA East/West.

So here are my adjusted predictions (based off the discussion tarheelg and myself had on what occurs in the event that a 3 way tie happens between conference foes in split subdivisions):

2AA West
1 - Shelby
16 - Bandys

8 - Bunker Hill
9 - Pisgah

5 - Ashe County
12 - Newton Conover

4 - Smoky Mountain
13 - South Point
---------------
3 - Hibriten
14 - Wilkes Central

6 - Burns
11 - West Lincoln

7 - Maiden
10 - East Lincoln

2 - North Lincoln
15 - RS Central


2AA East
1 - Randleman
16 - Morehead

8 - North Surry
9 - East Duplin

5 - Washington
12 - St Pauls

4 - South Granville
13 - North Lenoir
---------------
3 - Currituck County
14 - North Davidson

6 - Salisbury
11 - Hertford County

7 - Croatan
10 - Ledford

2 - Oak Grove
15 - Nash Central