7A/6A/5A cutline - week 8 projection

[GEPreps]

Updated with Week 7 win/loss results (still week 6 pts)

There are still a number of games left for bubble teams where there is not a prohibitive favorite, but one needs to guess at a winner for a specific scenario, so YMMV.
--

Bold - Clinched (6 wins or 5 wins with 25+ points)
Italic - teams with "pick'em" games

Assuming five wins in NIC-10 (40 points) gets into playoffs
--

29 1718 Lincoln-Way North
30 1685 Hubbard (5 - MP, Playoff) 21 pts
31 1674 Lake Forest (3 - LZ, ZB) 27 pts
__ 1671 Rockford Guilford (3 - Aub, Hon)
32 1657 Richards (4 - EGP, OL) 32 pts


--- 7A/6A cut -----------------------

01 1196 Sacred Heart-Griffin *
02 1130 Montini *

__ 1641 De La Salle (3 - StF, BMac) 36 pts
03 1640 DeKalb
04 1628 Yorkville (3 - DeK, Ott) 33 pts
05 1608 Normal Community West (4 - Peo, Bloomgton) 29 pts
06 1606 Deerfield (4 - MW, ME) 20 pts
07 1571 Grayslake North (4 - GC, WoodN) 29 pts
08 1571 Riverside-Brookfield
09 1567 Crete-Monee
10 1559 Hinsdale South (5 - HC, Morton) 24 pts
__ 1535 Crystal Lake Central (3 - Hamp, GrayC) 26 pts
12 1501 Prairie Ridge
__ 1479 Perspectives ??
13 1474 Chicago-Kenwood (5 - Wash, Harlan) 27 pts
__ 1456 Chicago-Washington (4 - Kwood, DuSable) 25 pts
14 1443 Belvidere North
15 1440 Champaign Centennial (4 - PeoMan, ChamCentral) 26 pts
16 1409 Lakes (5 - NC, Lville) 23 pts
17 1407 Lemont
__ 1396 Ottawa (4 - Geneseo, Yville) 26 pts
18 1393 St. Ignatius (4 - BMac, DePaul) 33 pts
__ 1385 Chatham (Glenwood) (4 - DecEis, Jacks) 27 pts
19 1385 Oak Forest
20 1376 Hampshire (4 - CLC, Wstock) 23 pts
__ 1356 St. Francis (4 - DLS, Fenwick) 22 pts
__ 1347 Wauconda (3 - Antioch , NorthChi ) 28 pts
21 1346 Galesburg (4 - Quincy, Canton,MI) 27 pts
22 1334 Morgan Park (4 - UPEngle, Hubbard, Playoff) 23 pts
__ 1333 Springfield Southeast (3 - SHG, DecMac) 27 pts
23 1329 Kaneland (4 - L-P, Rochelle) 28 pts
__ 1317 Antioch (4 - Wauconda, Grant) 20 pts
24 1295 Peoria Notre Dame
25 1287 Lincoln-Way West
26 1282 Peoria HS
27 1265 Vernon Hills (5 - Warren, RLake) 16 pts
28 1263 Belvidere (4 - Freeport, RockE) 26 pts
29 1248 Dunlap (5 - Limestone, Canton) 31 pts
30 1228 Glenbard South (5 - IC, R-B) 32 pts
31 1217 King (5 - CVS, playoff) 31 pts
__ 1206 LaSalle-Peru (3 - Kanland, Morris) 30 pts
32 1199 Tinley Park (5 - Bremen, TFS) 25 pts

-- 6A/5A cut ----------------------

01 1193 Marian Central Cath (5 - Carmel, StPats) 29 pts
02 1192 Nazareth
03 1191 Washington
__ 1187 Freeport (4 - BelvHS, Auburn) 26 pts
04 1185 Champaign Central
__ 1184 Sycamore (4 - Morris, Sterling) 35 pts
05 1153 Rich Central (5 - RichE, NormComm) 22 pts
06 1150 Triad
07 1147 Joliet Catholic

__ 1121 Westinghouse
__ 1099 Marion
__ 1094 East Peoria
__ 1085 Kankakee
__ 1075 Rich East
__ 1071 Solorio Academy
__ 1053 DuSable
__ 1050 Bartonville Limestone
__ 1041 Decatur Eisenhower
__ 1021 Mattoon
__ 1015 Hillcrest
__ 1008 Sterling
__ 1002 Normal Uni
__ 0992 St. Laurence
__ 0976 Cahokia
__ 0969 Metamora
__ 0968 Elmwood Park
__ 0967 Highland
__ 0965 Woodstock
__ 0953 Jacksonville
__ 0952 Mahomet-Seymour
__ 0923 Centralia
__ 0918 Rochelle
__ 0908 Lindblom
__ 0900 Woodstock North
__ 0899 Payton
__ 0893 Hyde Park
__ 0884 Morris
__ 0848 Julian
__ 0838 Waterloo
__ 0833 Evergreen Park
__ 0822 Urban Prep/West
__ 0822 Ridgewood
__ 0814 Geneseo
__ 0809 Taylorville
__ 0806 Dixon
__ 0784 Effingham
__ 0766 Bethalto Civic
__ 0752 Richmond-Burton
__ 0751 Rock Island Alleman
__ 0731 Rochester
__ 0730 Marengo
__ 0713 Richland County
__ 0712 Mt. Zion
__ 0706 Herrin
__ 0705 Breese Mater Dei
__ 0697 Pontiac
__ 0696 Alton Marquette
__ 0696 Rockford Lutheran
__ 0688 Johnsburg
__ 0687 Ag Science
__ 0678 Quincy Notre Dame
__ 0675 Eureka [Coop]
__ 0674 Illinois Valley Central
__ 0673 Columbia
__ 0670 Harvard
__ 0670 Manteno
__ 0657 Elgin (St. Edward)
__ 0644 Plano
__ 0640 Aurora Cent Cath
__ 0637 Wheaton Academy
__ 0632 Althoff Catholic
__ 0626 Fairbury (Prairie Central)
__ 0607 Freeburg
__ 0600 Herscher
__ 0596 Genoa-Kingston
__ 0593 Coal City
__ 0592 Clinton
__ 0591 Harrisburg
__ 0584 Benton
__ 0577 Stillman Valley
__ 0572 Macomb
__ 0567 Murphysboro
__ 0567 Peotone
__ 0559 Phillips

 

[GEPreps]

Hinterland,

Worked through the teams down to JCA.
Let me know your thoughts on the bubble teams and remaining games.

 

[Hinterland]

hAVEN'T FORGOT YA' GEP, going to look at your list, go through it and try to give my thoughts on the bubble teams (I assume the "bubble" teams are those which may be in or out of the playoffs themselves and not "bubble" teams as to being just in or out of a particular class,, right?) I'll assume the former.

 

[Hinterland]

• GEP, hope you don't mind an abbreviated run through of my analysis. If I do not think one of the listed "bubble" teams should be where they are listed, I will give an explanation. There are a few I probably need to do some more thinking about. I will also put an OK by the numbered "bubble" team 6A list if I think they will get in.

04 Yorkville - I have them OUT, given the fact that they should lose to DeKalb this week for their 5th loss.
05 Normal comm. West - OK
06 Deerfield - OK
07 Grayslake North - OK
10 Hinsdale South - OK should get needed 6th win against Morton week 9
11 Crystal Lake Central (?) - I have them OUT, I do not have them getting 2 more wins
13 Chicago (Kenwood) - OK They are looking good in the Chicago (Windy City) Conference
15 Champ. Centennial - With the low amount of projected points from Morton, Richwoods,Urbana and Peoria Manual, I have them needing 6 wins to get in just to be safe. I do not have them beating Champaign Central in week 9. So. I have them OUT
16 Lakes - OK (But only because I think they'll get their needed 6th win against against North Chicago this week)

Ok, I'm through the first 16 of the 6A field as you have laid out, and given the brain freeze kicking in, this is a good point to leave off. never fear, I will return to go through the balance. Tah, tah!!

 

[capnbillhitters]

Well just last week I was the genius that suggested LwN wouldn't jump to 7A and push GW to number 2 seed and set up a Lville /GW semi.

Ouch. Pretty sure GW and LWN are now virtually tied for #1 seed in 7 A this week. It may come down to AT beating PE to provide the key opponent victory.

Must stop analyzing....must stop analyzing

 

[Secondo1]

Was amazed at how very close MCC and Naz are to being bumped up to 6A. If JCA is left in 5A without these 2, then whom becomes JCA's biggest threat...JCA's injuries??

 

[Snetsrak61]

If I'm reading that correctly, is SHG the largest 5A team before the success factor? Could they get bumped up to 7A post-success factor?

 

[hornetnation7]

Was amazed at how very close MCC and Naz are to being bumped up to 6A. If JCA is left in 5A without these 2, then whom becomes JCA's biggest threat...JCA's injuries??

I don't think this is likely to happen, as there are too many 7A/8A bubble teams that are likely to get in and push things down.

 

[Hinterland]

Ok, GEP. The freeze has thawed somewhat, so I'll finish my analysis of the Class 6A list you so kindly supplied, picking up with #18:

18 St. Ignatius - OK (only because I have them getting their 5th win week 9 against DePaul)
Chatham (Glenwood) - I have them getting IN based on them owning Jacksonville, regardless of the talent on the respective teams over the years. I think they beat J'ville week 9 for their 5th win and points should be no problem at 40
20 Hampshire - OK, but they do need to win their last 2 games
Wheaton St. Francis - I'm going to show them some love here and put them IN, I think they get to 6 wins by winning their last 2 games
21 Galesburg - OUT (I think they need to be Western Big 6 Conference champ to get in, but I do not see that happening, especially with their loss to Rock Island last week. Ouch!!)
22 Morgan Park - OK, but I see them needing to beat Hubbard week 9
23 Kaneland - OK
27 Vernon Hills - OK, but must beat Round Lake week 9 for their 6th win, since I do not see them beating Warren this week
28 Belvidere -OK, but again, I do think they need 6 wins to be safe, meaning they need their last 2
29 Dunlap - OK
30 Glenbard South - OK
31 King - OK
32 Tinley Park -OK should get their 6th win this week

So, to wrap everything up in a not-so-pretty bow, I have Yorkville, Crystal Lake Central Champaign Centennial and Galesburg not getting in, and Chatham Glenwood and St. Francis being added for a NET LOSS OF 2. iFf this turns out to be the case, I see Richards and LWN moving down to 6A. The best chance for this NOT TO HAPPEN is for Champaign Central and Galesburg to remain on the list. Just a personal note here: Thanks for nothing Southeast!!

Bye, bye all!

 

[Hinterland]

Errata: Make that Champaign Centennial remaining on the list, not Champagn Central

 

[Dorgazm]

Was amazed at how very close MCC and Naz are to being bumped up to 6A. If JCA is left in 5A without these 2, then whom becomes JCA's biggest threat...JCA's injuries??

If this comes to fruition & JCA stays in southern bracket, it very likely could set up an all Catholic final versus STL's high-flying offense? Who else in 5A can run with the Vikings in the northern area?

 

[jwarigaku]

The are a few I'm pretty sure.

If this comes to fruition & JCA stays in southern bracket, it very likely could set up an all Catholic final versus STL's high-flying offense? Who else in 5A can run with the Vikings in the northern area?

 

[Dino brown]

If this comes to fruition & JCA stays in southern bracket, it very likely could set up an all Catholic final versus STL's high-flying offense? Who else in 5A can run with the Vikings in the northern area?

The same high powered offense that that Benet beat by 20 and Benet got shut out by Naz CMON MAN!!!!!!

 

[Dorgazm]

The same high powered offense that that Benet beat by 20 and Benet got shut out by Naz CMON MAN!!!!!!

OK but Laurence's starting RB did not play and they were 1 dimensional? Regardless, I agree, it wasn't a good showing versus Benet, however, it was WEEK #1.

Since then, this team has thrown up 72-41-70-35-49-63 on the scoreboard respectively, that's an average of 50.1pts per game. 41 on Ignatius, 70 on Mac, 35 on Rice, 49 on Francis, & 63 on A Christian.

Please give us all your EXPERT opinion on who would challenge JCA?

PLEASE check the original post by Secondo1 first, because it asks if Marian Central Catholic & Nazareth are in 6A who challenges JCA in 5A and I was NOT saying Laurence has a better shot than Nazareth!

 

[Dino brown]

OK but Laurence's starting RB did not play and they were 1 dimensional? Regardless, I agree, it wasn't a good showing versus Benet, however, it was WEEK #1.

Since then, this team has thrown up 72-41-70-35-49-63 on the scoreboard respectively, that's an average of 50.1pts per game. 41 on Ignatius, 70 on Mac, 35 on Rice, 49 on Francis, & 63 on A Christian.

Please give us all your EXPERT opinion on who would challenge JCA?

PLEASE check the original post by Secondo1 first, because it asks if Marian Central Catholic & Nazareth are in 6A who challenges JCA in 5A and I was NOT saying Laurence has a better shot than Nazareth!

Listen they are a good team no doubt and the RB without out a doubt is a horse but I don't think Naz is bumping up from what I have been told again it's all chatter for now.and yes if Naz is not there I can Def see STL giving JCA a run.