A Pro Scouts' take on the Duke 2016 class

Jake1985

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I had a convo with my former college roommate who is a Scout in the Nets organization. He had very high praise for all 6 of Duke's guys. Here's what he said.
Giles- "A sure thing, Pro. Kid has so much game that even on two surgically repaired knees, he's a stud even at the NBA level."
Tatum- "Smooth. His mid range game is the best I've seen of any high schooler in the last decade. He's long, deceptive athletic and fluid. Could get stronger and be more consistent from three point range but he'll address that at Duke. Kid is a Pro."
Frank- "I've watch him play now for over two years and as a 17-18 year old he's developed like a man. Strong, thick, athletic scorer. He's a Westbrook type lead guard. He's got enough ability to easily be a first round pick. I love the kid. In my opinion he was the best high Sr as a player with the ball in his hands. He's a Pro."
Bolden- "Now to me, this is a gem of the class because Bolden is not only a very talented big guy but he allows the other guys to play their more natural positions. Bolden is a big big guy if that makes sense. Hes got super long arms and mosterous hands. He does everything well. Although he's not in the same class as Okafor, he could have the same impact at Duke. I watched him probably a dozen times now and he just keeps getting better. Absolutely think he's a Pro."
Javin- "this kid has as much upside as any player coming out of hs and in my opinion a much higher ceiling than Amile or Lance. He's a walking pogo stick and he is filling out his body. Great energy and work ethic. He could turn out to be this year's Grayson Allen in terms of his devolpment and production as a Soph. Great length. Could develop into a Pro."
Jack- "I had to do my homework on him but he is very well know by Euro Scouts. I have watched a lot of game films on him and the two things that really stand out are his ability to rebound on both ends of the floor and how tough of a kid he is and he uses that to really man up. I think he will surprise and be a sleeper that shines. Not sure how long it will take his to transition to Duke of for his game to be more like it's played in the States, but I really like him as a player. I'll say he's a Pro; if not in the US the oversees."
 

Laettner15

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Wow!!!!!! I was excited before, but now, my excitement for this season is through the roof! These 6 along with Jefferson, Allen, Jones, Kennard, and Jeter... This team will be a force! Who are you going to game plan to stop and what style are you going to try and play! Chemistry and a flow worry me a tiny bit, but K will make work!
 

df64

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Jack and Javin are really exciting as potential 4 year guys. Love that we have them and Vrank and Robinson to fill out the roster with the elite recruits we are looking at the next few years. How many excellent Duke teams of the past were an experienced, solid role player/a little more depth away (Marty Clark) from winning it all? 02,94,06,04?
 

jimlsumner

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Jack and Javin are really exciting as potential 4 year guys. Love that we have them and Vrank and Robinson to fill out the roster with the elite recruits we are looking at the next few years. How many excellent Duke teams of the past were an experienced, solid role player/a little more depth away (Marty Clark) from winning it all? 02,94,06,04?

Well, Duke had Marty Clark in '94.
And cloning just wasn't that advanced back then. :)

BTW, I get what you're saying.
 
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We very well could have the #1 and 2 picks in next years draft with Giles and Tatum. Is Kentucky with Davis and MKG the only team to ever do that?? I only ask that because they did cut down the nets with them.
 

df64

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Jim, I can't believe Marty Clark was still around in 94! I don't remember him on that team at all! Not surprising, since the other guy I was thinking about was Koubek (91), one of my all time favorites, and I couldn't remember his name for the life of me. Even with Clark, that team needed one more guy. Not a star, just a reliable contributor. Clark was on the 92 squad, right?
 

twdukefan

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Jim, I can't believe Marty Clark was still around in 94! I don't remember him on that team at all! Not surprising, since the other guy I was thinking about was Koubek (91), one of my all time favorites, and I couldn't remember his name for the life of me. Even with Clark, that team needed one more guy. Not a star, just a reliable contributor. Clark was on the 92 squad, right?
Yeah I believe so
 

jnastasi

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Very very optimistic point of view. Hope these guys can live up to the expectations like the 2014 class did.
 
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jnastasi

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Very very optimistic point of view. Hope these guys can live up to the expectations like the 2014 class did.
 

gottagonow

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This is looking like a once in a decade type team with our 5 star caliber freshmen along with our returning experienced players. Amazing how we had trouble keeping 5 players out of foul trouble at times last year and now we will have two teams of great players.

PS: go to hell UNC, go to hell.
 

dukedevilz

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Clark did make 5 free throws in the 92 FF against Indiana after Grant Hill fouled out; he was seldom used in 92, but his free throws against IU were super clutch!
 
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dukedevilz

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St.Mary's brings in studs every year from Australia that go completely under the radar. I can't help but think Jack White's going to be a really solid contributor in a couple years.
 

Dattier

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Jack and Javin are really exciting as potential 4 year guys. Love that we have them and Vrank and Robinson to fill out the roster with the elite recruits we are looking at the next few years. How many excellent Duke teams of the past were an experienced, solid role player/a little more depth away (Marty Clark) from winning it all? 02,94,06,04?
As a collective, I think having the 4 of them is a really valuable reserve to pull from. No offense to them intended, but it's like how a great minor league system helps develop a consistently strong MLB team.

However, no individual one of them is someone I'm going to count as a hatched chicken just yet. We've had sooooo many guys over the years who have projected as great program guys and role players as seniors... who didn't even stay through their entire sophomore year. The nature of recruiting today and K's adjustment to it means we're going to have freshmen capable of starting and starring just about every year, so these guys aren't just waiting for Harry, Jason, and Marques to declare and Amile and Matt to graduate. They're going to have to fight for time against starter ready guys every year.

I have no doubt any one of them could develop into a contributor over a full career at Duke and that among the four of them, we will get such a contribution somewhere down the line. I don't think I'm willing to make a bet on any specific one of them panning out that way, though.
 

DiehardDukeFan4Life

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Jim, I can't believe Marty Clark was still around in 94! I don't remember him on that team at all! Not surprising, since the other guy I was thinking about was Koubek (91), one of my all time favorites, and I couldn't remember his name for the life of me. Even with Clark, that team needed one more guy. Not a star, just a reliable contributor. Clark was on the 92 squad, right?
He was a sophomore on the 92 championship team and was a senior on the 94 team
 

skysdad

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I liked Marty. Great haircut. Wonder what he's doing now. Got two rings doesn't he just like Laettner, Hurley, the Hills and the rest. OFC
 

df64

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Those free throws against IU were exactly what I was thinking of. A rarely used guy, underclassman no less, coming into a pressure filled game that the team was about to throw away, and coming up so clutch.
 

jimlsumner

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I liked Marty. Great haircut. Wonder what he's doing now. Got two rings doesn't he just like Laettner, Hurley, the Hills and the rest. OFC

The last time I talked to Marty, he was living in the Denver area and running basketball camps and training individuals.

That 1994 team actually had an extra guy. Kenny Blakeney. But he became academically ineligible after the first season.

He averaged just under 15 mpg in the seven games he played. So, he was in the rotation. And he was a redshirt junior, so he had some experience.

Duke had sophomore Tony Moore and freshmen Greg Newton, Joey Beard and Carmen Wallace on that '94 team.

But K didn't trust them. He rode a seven-man [Parks, Lang, Hill, Capel, Collins, Clark, Meek] rotation all the way to the title game, where they met a team that famously played "40 minutes of hell" and a very deep rotation.

Would Blakeney have helped? We'll never know.
 

1156jack

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What would the pro scout say about Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, Amile Jefferson and Matt Jones?
 

MyDudeG_rivals

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What would the pro scout say about Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, Amile Jefferson and Matt Jones?
My personal take:
Grayson- We know of his pro prospects based on analysts that thought he was going pro this offseason. He'll probably be a late first rounder. He has a lot of positives, but some negatives that will probably prevent him from going much higher than that (height/length). With his three point shooting and athleticism I think we see him as a very good rotational player and potential starter for a long time in the league.

Amile- Sadly, I thinks he goes undrafted. The league is moving to positionless basketball that really values spacing so older power forwards that can't stretch the floor at all aren't really prioritized in the draft. As we all know though, Amile is the prototypical glue guy. I wouldn't be surprised to see him stick on a roster as a defensive big. He really needs to learn from Lance Thomas and improve his jumper for that to happen though.

Matt- He's the prototypical 3 and D guy. The problem is that I don't know if his athleticism is good enough to consistently hang with the wings in the league. I actually think he has a better chance at getting drafted than Amile as a second rounder because he fills a set role that the league values.

Luke- This is the big wildcard. The league is constantly looking for shooters so I could definitely see him getting drafted. He just needs to be more consistent in order for that to happen. We've seen him light it up this past season (Notre Dame at home) but we've also seen him not show up at all in some games. He was a great shooter out of high school, but he also had free reign to shoot whatever he wanted to get into rhythm. Obviously that can't happen at Duke and for sure won't happen in the NBA. Honestly though he's a really smart player and I'll be rooting for him.

These are just my opinions. Not a credible scout by any means lol
 
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My personal take:
Grayson- We know of his pro prospects based on analysts that thought he was going pro this offseason. He'll probably be a late first rounder. He has a lot of positives, but some negatives that will probably prevent him from going much higher than that (height/length). With his three point shooting and athleticism I think we see him as a very good rotational player and potential starter for a long time in the league.

Amile- Sadly, I thinks he goes undrafted. The league is moving to positionless basketball that really values spacing so older power forwards that can't stretch the floor at all aren't really prioritized in the draft. As we all know though, Amile is the prototypical glue guy. I wouldn't be surprised to see him stick on a roster as a defensive big. He really needs to learn from Lance Thomas and improve his jumper for that to happen though.

Matt- He's the prototypical 3 and D guy. The problem is that I don't know if his athleticism is good enough to consistently hang with the wings in the league. I actually think he has a better chance at getting drafted than Amile as a second rounder because he fills a set role that the league values.

Luke- This is the big wildcard. The league is constantly looking for shooters so I could definitely see him getting drafted. He just needs to be more consistent in order for that to happen. We've seen him light it up this past season (Notre Dame at home) but we've also seen him not show up at all in some games. He was a great shooter out of high school, but he also had free reign to shoot whatever he wanted to get into rhythm. Obviously that can't happen at Duke and for sure won't happen in the NBA. Honestly though he's a really smart player and I'll be rooting for him.

These are just my opinions. Not a credible scout by any means lol
Think you did an excellent job with your analysis.
Grayson I believe will go anywhere from 15-30 in next year's draft, and should be a rotation player/eventual starter for many many years.
Amile just doesn't fit the way the NBA is going at all, his only chance would be to develop a reliable 20-24 foot jumper, he hasn't already, don't see it happening.
Matt will be looked at the same way Andre Dawkins was looked at. I think Dawkins had more explosiveness though, and if he couldn't make it, than I don't think Matt will either.

Luke is the ultimate wildcard. You can never have enough shooters, and I could see him filling a role like a James Jones type player. He will definitely need to work on his body though. I'd say he's the ultimate 50/50 bet.
 

pisgah101

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Grayson will be in the league for a long time. Matt won't touch te NBA, Amile will play but idk if he'll be drafted it'll depend and Luke will be drafted after 4
 

gottagonow

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Personally I can see Amile with some sort of a professional team better than I can see Matt. Amile might surprise a lot of people as he is such a great teammate theres no telling where he might end up. Their performance this season will define their future. Luke has only played a season and his shooting could catch fire making him a top 20 draftee. I see Grayson having a long and successful career, maybe in the mold of a JJ Reddick type but more of a drive to the basket and try to stop me if you can type player.
 

dukiejay

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It's hard for me envisioning Kennard not an NBA roster for a long time. He's not ready now by any means, and probably won't be for another few years, but he has some of the same intangibles I saw in J.J. when he was a freshman. He's very underrated as an athlete, he's underrated at getting his own shot, he's ahead of where I thought he'd be defensively and even moreso....he's a basketball player in the truest sense.
 
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Personally I can see Amile with some sort of a professional team better than I can see Matt. Amile might surprise a lot of people as he is such a great teammate theres no telling where he might end up. Their performance this season will define their future. Luke has only played a season and his shooting could catch fire making him a top 20 draftee. I see Grayson having a long and successful career, maybe in the mold of a JJ Reddick type but more of a drive to the basket and try to stop me if you can type player.
I believe that Kennard has a much better shot of sticking to an NBA roster than Amile and Matt do. But he will not be a top 20 draftee, Grayson will be fortunate to be a top 20 draftee.
Sadly, in a typical draft, there are usually only 1 or 2 seniors going in the top 20 these days. Per NBADRAFT.net, only 3 seniors are projected 1st rounders: Buddy Hield, Brice Johnson, and Denzel Valentine (and this was a weak freshman "1 and done" class) And then you gotta factor in the European players. Could Kennard be the 1 or 2 seniors?? Possibly, but I doubt it, unless he grows about 4 inches and his wingspan greatly increases.
Regardless, his shooting, offensive IQ, and underrated athleticism should keep him on an NBA roster, whether he gets drafted or not.
 

Get Nasty

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I believe that Kennard has a much better shot of sticking to an NBA roster than Amile and Matt do. But he will not be a top 20 draftee, Grayson will be fortunate to be a top 20 draftee.
Sadly, in a typical draft, there are usually only 1 or 2 seniors going in the top 20 these days. Per NBADRAFT.net, only 3 seniors are projected 1st rounders: Buddy Hield, Brice Johnson, and Denzel Valentine (and this was a weak freshman "1 and done" class) And then you gotta factor in the European players. Could Kennard be the 1 or 2 seniors?? Possibly, but I doubt it, unless he grows about 4 inches and his wingspan greatly increases.
Regardless, his shooting, offensive IQ, and underrated athleticism should keep him on an NBA roster, whether he gets drafted or not.
Matt has next to no chance at making a team, Amile has a shot to make a team IMHO. Luke has a lot of things you can't teach. He is a sneaky good athlete, good ball handler, good passer. He needs to get better mentally and more consistent with his shot. He has a good chance to make it. His consistent big minutes probably won't come until his Jr year. Great for duke, but probably slows down his development a tad.
 

jimlsumner

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I love Matt Jones as a college player. But I don't see how he makes it in the NBA.

But he should get a shot. No pun intended. :)

Amile has a better chance but is no sure thing. He has the game of a 5 and the body of a 3. He's more likely to change the former than the latter.

But I don't see either getting drafted. They would likely have to go the Lance Thomas/Seth Curry route, i.e. D league, 10-day contracts, lots of sweat equity, lots of patience.
 
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twdukefan

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I think it's good that Jones, Jefferson, Allen, and Kennard are thought of as questionable first round talents, if they are even that at all. It means they stay around longer and help nurture these freshmen that undoubtedly have pro potential, and that's the edge this Duke team will have over others in this day and age of frosh.
 

Tim1515

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Really hope the last two in the class stick around. They are unlikely to see time this year and the threat of being recruited over will always be there.

I don't mean it as a knock on Duke or K...we just live in a basketball world now where freshman and sophomores expect to play early...that impacts these kids as freshman and as juniors when the next crop of play early guys come in.

4-year players staying is the key to Duke having title chances and not just great young talent.