Nobody thinks we should make the fnal 4 every year, and you know it. We should, however, be in the legitimate discussion to make the final 4 most years. We should make the 2nd weekend most years. We should win/share either the SEC regular season or tournament most years. We should do this if we're to get back to the UK standards that Cal mentions in every post-season sound bite you can find from him. Let's get back to these standards instead of allowing cal to water down expectations
Acceptable/Unacceptable Seasons Under Calipari (Interaction Requested)
- Thread starter Eight_Banners_anon
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I'm to the point, nothing Cal does is acceptable. I am done with Cal, if you look what he is bringing in you will see. Rinse and Repeat over and over. D O N E
I really don't know it. Every year the same people are on here complaining about elite 8 losses, sweet 16 losses and lately early round exits.
I've come to believe that a portion of our fans expect us to win every game and if not the world is falling apart. Which is why some say this downfall started in 2015 ??!!?! Are you freaking kidding me. We've had some really good teams and years since then. It's been a 4 year decline at most
I’d argue 2016 was the start, the loss to Indiana bumps that year to disappointing. 2017 was a dead cat bounce, then the decline continued in 2018-. That’s my opinion though.
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I agree. I consider myself more of a realist, and the loss to #15 and #14 don't weigh as heavily against the season as double-digits in the loss column. Though, this season did end up with 10 losses. The biggest issue with 2023-24 is that we were supposed to be a loaded team, Cal's style, and still ended up with 10 losses, a loss to UNCW, a blowout to USCjr, a first game SEC tourney exit, and first round NCAAT loss to Oakland. All that considered, I consider this season below standard. If we were to only lose Reeves, Mitchell, and Dillingham, I would accept this year and look forward to next year. The problem is, we're already looking at losing Adou, Edwards isn't coming back, and who knows who else will leave? Losing 10 games and then starting from scratch the next year is beyond exhausting.
I'm also a white, Christian, cisgendered, male, so my opinion shouldn't matter to anyone, regardless of facts. Maybe if I get to 1,000 posts "my truth" will matter? See how arbitrary and irrational you sound?
Elite 8 + SEC Regular Season and/or SEC Tourney Champs is a successful season. If it’s Sweet 16 with an SEC accolade, then that team came up short. If a team wins both SEC regular and tourney and gets clipped in a close one in the S16, you might say “damn a different bounce of the ball, doesn’t take away from a great team, this stuff can happen in March”. But that’s only if those bumps come along with Final 4 appearances and chances at winning Titles as well. That’s where Cal was for the first decade. You can’t always bump your head in the E8 and S16 of course, but Cal has set the bar so low for this program that if he ever gets to a 2nd weekend again, he’ll act like it’s a redemption story. Gross, but that’s where we’re at isn’t it?
Bro c’mon, that’s an all time ridiculous take. What does a 2 or 3 seed matter when you piss down your leg against a 14 and a 15?
That 13 team wasn't good. The team was already 17-7 when Noel went down. Finished 21-12. Ryan Harrow was a trainwreck.
There's some years where you just know you're not going to be that good and 2018 was one of them. Coincidentally, that was the last group to win the SEC Tournament. But some of those guys were a big disappointment.
2017 was the last national champion contender
2019 was a Final Four contender obviously but I don't think they could've won it
Last few years have sucked completely. Literally the only bright spot is Oscar winning NPOTY. That's how bad it has been post COVID.
To answer the OP's question,
2021 is unacceptable. There's no excuse to remotely justify such a season ever. That is 100% on the roster Cal picked. This season should've been Cal's last.
In terms of overall expectations- NOT A SINGLE FAN EXPECTS A FINAL FOUR EVERY YEAR. This statement is always said to intentionally try and portray fans as unreasonable. Kentucky fans want to be in the hunt for a Final Four NEARLY every season- not get it, but be a threat to actually get there. Getting out of the first weekend of the tournament is absolutely an understandable expectation.
Elite 8 losses hurt probably the worst but that's a pretty good season. Consistently not getting to the second weekend of the tournament should be automatically a bad season which is amplified with no SEC Tournament success either.
In the last 39 years, we've reached at least the Elite 8 in 86, 92, 93, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 03, 05, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 17, 19. That's about 45% of the time. This will now be our biggest drought since probation. It is not acceptable to go that long without making it that far. It's certainly not acceptable to not even get to the Sweet 16 during that time period. I don't think KU, Duke, or UNC have gone that long without a S16 in 40 years.
2021 is unacceptable. There's no excuse to remotely justify such a season ever. That is 100% on the roster Cal picked. This season should've been Cal's last.
In terms of overall expectations- NOT A SINGLE FAN EXPECTS A FINAL FOUR EVERY YEAR. This statement is always said to intentionally try and portray fans as unreasonable. Kentucky fans want to be in the hunt for a Final Four NEARLY every season- not get it, but be a threat to actually get there. Getting out of the first weekend of the tournament is absolutely an understandable expectation.
Elite 8 losses hurt probably the worst but that's a pretty good season. Consistently not getting to the second weekend of the tournament should be automatically a bad season which is amplified with no SEC Tournament success either.
In the last 39 years, we've reached at least the Elite 8 in 86, 92, 93, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 03, 05, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 17, 19. That's about 45% of the time. This will now be our biggest drought since probation. It is not acceptable to go that long without making it that far. It's certainly not acceptable to not even get to the Sweet 16 during that time period. I don't think KU, Duke, or UNC have gone that long without a S16 in 40 years.
Using this metric, here are the acceptable seasons at UK:
Calipari (15 seasons):
2016-17
2014-15
2015-16? - This team didn't make the Sweet 16, but did win SEC Reg. Sea. and Tournament
2014-15
2013-14? - This team made it to the NCAAT Championship game, but finished 2nd SEC Reg. Sea and lost SECT
2011-12
2010-2011
2009-2010
Gillispie (2 season):
NONE
Tubby (10 seasons):
2004-05
2003-04? Lost in Round of 32 to UAB, but won SEC Reg. Seas. and SECT
2002-03
2000-01? Lost in Sweet 16 to USC, but won SEC Reg. Sea. and SECT
1998-99
1997-98
Pitino (8 seasons):
1996-97
1995-96
1994-95
1992-93
1991-92
1990-91* Still on probation, so no SECT or NCAAT, but won SEC Reg. Seas.
*89-90, finished 14-14, still on probation
Sutton (4 seasons):
1987-88
1985-86
Hall (13 seasons):
1983-84
1977-78
1974-75
Not going to do forty years of Rupp.
By these metrics, Pitino crushes the expectations, Tubby is better than Calipari, Calipari is better than Hall, Sutton would be up there if not for probation, and Gillispie is at the bottom of the bourbon barrel.
What is interesting from this metric as UK standard, is that if Cal had just left after 2017, he would have had 8/9 acceptable seasons at UK, and been right there in the conversation with Pitino as second greatest UK coach all time. Instead, he stayed, and hasn't had an acceptable season since. The question is, what would have happened if Pitino stayed? Would he have regressed, as would be expected over a longer tenure? It would be interesting to use this metric to compare other blue blood programs.
I'm going to assume UK would have made the Sweet 16, or better, in 2019, because that team had the make-up of a Calipari team that would have done so. That means, we've missed the Sweet 16 in four straight tournaments. Here is how that compares to other schools:
Indiana:
8 years (2015-16-Current)
9 years (2003-2011)
*Note, Indiana has only made it to the Sweet 16 in three of the last twenty-two tournaments. They have not made it past the Sweet 16. We are not in danger of becoming Indiana.
Kansas:
4 years (1981-1985)
6 years (1975-1980)
Duke:
5 years (1981-1985)
North Carolina:
4 years (2001-2004)
Louisville:
8 years (2016-Current, not including COVID year)
7 years (1998-2004)
You don't give Joe B enough credit.
'72-73 (20-8, top 15ish in first season replacing a legend)
'75-'76 (Rough regular season after losing a BUNCH of seniors from their runner-up team, and Robey suffering a season ending injury, was salvaged by an NIT championship)
'76-'77 (26-4, elite 8 loss, ranked 3rd)
'79-'80 (29-6, 1 seed, upset in sweet 16 by dook)
Here's where Joe B lost the faithful
80-81 (22-6, upset in round 1 Ala.-Birm.) and
81-82 (22-8, upset in round 1 by Mid. Tenn.) followed by
82-83 (23-8, elite 8 o.t. loss to Louis.)
I was just using the above poster's metric, that an acceptable UK season consists of:
1st in SEC Reg. Seas. or Win SECT
plus
Sweet 16 or better
Those were the seasons Joe B. met that requirement. I didn't factor in no SEC tournament during several years under Joe B.
Pitino becomes what Coach K is known for is he doesn't leave Kentucky. K only had two titles when Pitino left in 1997. Pitino had just won in 96, lost in OT in the 97 championship, and his roster won it again in 98. He was the hottest name in college basketball. If he didn't desire the pros, he would've stayed here and would have been an absolute icon, better than K, imo.
I agree w all of these...except 2014 team, how can going to title game not be acceptable
29-11
2nd in SEC
No SECT Championship
1-6 against top-25 opponents. Only top-25 win was UL. (Losses to #2 Mich. St., #20 Baylor, #18 UNC, #3 Florida, #1 Florida, #1 Florida)
24-10 entering the NCAA Tournament with unranked losses to: Arkansas who was 22-12 (2x), LSU (20-14), and South Carolina (5-13 in the SEC).
It was a fun ride for three weeks in March/April, but the season wasn't great. I don't think it would be acceptable to be a #8 seed every year. It's not acceptable for UK to play the 8/9 game, #1 overall seed, and then depend on three clutch shots by Aaron Harrison to win tournament games. Yes, I would accept UK making it to the National Championship game every year. However, it's more likely that the 2014 team lose to Wichita St. in round #2, if it was played all over again, than for UK to make another title run. The team was lucky for one year, but that doesn't wipe out the fact that it was a pretty poor season overall.
ANY SEASON UNDER 30 WINS IS UNACCEPTABLE. That means that we should at minimum be winning the SEC, SECT and at least a Sweet 16 matchup
You're absolutely right. In 121 years of UK basketball there have been sixteen 30-win seasons. The other one-hundred and five seasons were unacceptable.
Actually, in 2011-12 we didn't win the SEC Tournament. Also, in 2018-19 we didn't win the SEC Tournament. So, make that one-hundred and seven unacceptable seasons, and only fourteen acceptable.
Enjoyed the review and going down memory lane. Thank you OP for the research. Was it time for a change... Yes. Perception had become reality for the program, but Coach gave us some pretty good years and more times than not, UK was a factor with the talent to win it.
Goodness I was reading through this like it was this year and then realized it was last year. Like wtf lol
I literally did the same thing. I was like what is the point of rehashing this stuff, it's over. Only when I got to your post did I realize lol.
Patterns are what’s important. It applies context to the season.
Any one of Cal’s last 5 seasons could’ve been acceptable with the proper context, even when missing the tournament. The pattern, however, observed over a decade and half at UK gave us little reason to think he was going to turn around and bring us back to elite status after winning just 1 tournament game in the 2020’s. We could all feel that the magic was gone.
Any one of Cal’s last 5 seasons could’ve been acceptable with the proper context, even when missing the tournament. The pattern, however, observed over a decade and half at UK gave us little reason to think he was going to turn around and bring us back to elite status after winning just 1 tournament game in the 2020’s. We could all feel that the magic was gone.
I actually have a scale that I use for this. I acknowledge there is randomness to the tournament. I’m of the mindset that once you get to the Elite Eight all bets are off and you are playing someone that can beat you, no matter how good you are. I heavily prioritize the regular season but provide a 1-2 point boost in overall rating for teams that make the Final Four or further. My point system also takes into consideration tournament seed, injury impact and overall body of work.
1975=90
1976=83
1977=89
1978=92
1979=82
1980=90
1981=89
1982=85
1983=88
1984=91
1985=83
1986=90
1987=84
1988=89
1989=80
1990=81
1991=88
1992=89
1993=91
1994=88
1995=90
1996=93
1997=91
1998=91
1999=88
2000=86
2001=89
2002=87
2003=91
2004=90
2005=89
2006=84
2007=84
2008=83
2009=82
2010=90
2011=87
2012=92
2013=83
2014=86
2015=92
2016=87
2017=89
2018=86
2019=89
2020=88
2021=79
2022=89
2023=84
2024=88
2025=88
Anything 88 or highest is “acceptable” standards to me. 90 or higher is what I really want, as those are benchmark years to me.
1975=90
1976=83
1977=89
1978=92
1979=82
1980=90
1981=89
1982=85
1983=88
1984=91
1985=83
1986=90
1987=84
1988=89
1989=80
1990=81
1991=88
1992=89
1993=91
1994=88
1995=90
1996=93
1997=91
1998=91
1999=88
2000=86
2001=89
2002=87
2003=91
2004=90
2005=89
2006=84
2007=84
2008=83
2009=82
2010=90
2011=87
2012=92
2013=83
2014=86
2015=92
2016=87
2017=89
2018=86
2019=89
2020=88
2021=79
2022=89
2023=84
2024=88
2025=88
Anything 88 or highest is “acceptable” standards to me. 90 or higher is what I really want, as those are benchmark years to me.
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I'm surprised 2020-21 isn't down in the 60s or 70s, only one point lower than 1989-90.
Cal's 11th season building his program (9-16) v. Pitino's first year rebuilding (14-14).
Why are those not drastically different?
I tried to be as accurate as I could considering metrics and other criteria to simulate games versus other teams. An 80 is an abysmal rating compared to an 88 for example. However, an 80 has you as essentially a high tier mid major level or bottom level power four squad. The 2021 team finished top 50 in KenPom, was a good defensive team and had plenty of athleticism at multiple positions. They lost a lot of close games In heartbreaking fashion and were better than their record (which isn’t saying a lot). The first Pitino team played a weaker schedule and outplayed their own talent by a considerable margin. According to my system, the 1990 Kentucky Wildcats (my all time favorite team) would beat the 2021 team more often than not but most of the games would be close.
Everything after 2015 was fairly unacceptable to me. And especially unacceptable starting around 2018. And no doubt unacceptable since 2020.
Elite 8 or better = acceptable.
Our Historical average if numbering wins in the tournament per year (since field of 64) is just shy of 3 (2.7+-.2). That mean a S16 lowers it and and E8 raises it
Doesn’t mean it can’t still be a temporarily disappointing end to the season when you’re a favorite…but it’s a successful season regardless.
A S16 can be acceptable with circumstantial exceptions such as Pitino year 1, Cal year 1 (made E8 despite rebuild), Pope Year 1….or a derailed season bc injuries and you out perform your seedline. But once the train is rolling a S16 is more often than not a meh “push” type season that’s break even on our historical
Our Historical average if numbering wins in the tournament per year (since field of 64) is just shy of 3 (2.7+-.2). That mean a S16 lowers it and and E8 raises it
Doesn’t mean it can’t still be a temporarily disappointing end to the season when you’re a favorite…but it’s a successful season regardless.
A S16 can be acceptable with circumstantial exceptions such as Pitino year 1, Cal year 1 (made E8 despite rebuild), Pope Year 1….or a derailed season bc injuries and you out perform your seedline. But once the train is rolling a S16 is more often than not a meh “push” type season that’s break even on our historical
Sadly it took the COVID season and the St. Peters loss for me to wake up fully. I mean we were a 2 seed and boat raced Kansas at Kansas and North Carolina on a neutral floor. That's the champion and runner-up. Plus had TyTy and Wheeler not been injured we could've made a run.
Hell the 2020 team won the SEC by 3 games and Maxey, Quickley sp? and Nick Richards were balling that year. We were also a point away from a final four in 2019 but Auburn magically didn't commit a foul the last 9 minutes of regulation. So I admittedly gave Cal too much leeway. Way to much actually.
That's actually a pretty cool scale, especially for someone whose first memory of UK was the loss to Duke.
Thanks, man. I actually see I posted an outdated version of that. I have the ratings for 1989 and 2021 backwards on there. It came from a systematic approach to rate all the players and teams. I do it every year actually. That’s how I project how good I think a team will be based on a scale that weights individual players. For example, the 2025 Wildcats finished as follows:
O. Oweh - 84
L. Butler- 83
A. Williams - 82
J. Robinson - 81
A. Carr - 79
K. Brea - 78
B. Garrison - 74
A. Almonor - 72
K. Kriisa - 72
C. Chandler - 71
T. Noah - 69
T. Perry - 68
G. Darbyshire - 50
W. Horn - 50
Z. Tow - 50
I have an early draft for next season I’ve been working on so far. As it stands today, my projection for 2026 is an 89 rating.
Maybe I woke up on the wrong side of the bed, but it strikes me all the seasons of Cal’s except for the championship year were disappointing.
The teams underachieved their potential and that’s a tough pill to swallow. 2010 and 2015 were championship caliber teams.
The two final fours lost to UConn we were winnable. The losses to UNC and Auburn were heartbreaking.
We coulda/shoulda been on championship 12 with a few good breaks.
The teams underachieved their potential and that’s a tough pill to swallow. 2010 and 2015 were championship caliber teams.
The two final fours lost to UConn we were winnable. The losses to UNC and Auburn were heartbreaking.
We coulda/shoulda been on championship 12 with a few good breaks.