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Aike’s Model - *Since 2/2 Only* - 3/9/25 Update

A

Aike

Heisman
Mar 17, 2002
75,311
45,919
90
Thought this would be fun to look at. Ran the numbers for only the past 5 weeks.

Keep in mind that with a smaller sample size comes more skew, so any really good or bad game can have an outsized impact.

Also, because my methodology is a little more simplistic than for my normal model, there are extremes at both ends.

Duke, while playing great, isn’t quite this good.

Texas, who I don’t even list, barely registered a pulse after going 2-7.

I would view this as directional data. A pretty good indicator of who is playing well or poorly, but not nearly as accurate as the overall model for predicting overall tournament wins.

Here’s how things look:

1. Duke 5.22
2. Florida 4.05
3. Auburn 3.56
4. Gonzaga 3.28
5. Texas Tech 3.09
6. Clemson 2.9303
7. Kentucky 2.9299
8. UCLA 2.83
9. Tennessee 2.75
10. Houston 2.70
11. Missouri 2.60
12. Iowa St 2.59
13. Alabama 2.49
14. Xavier 2.45
15. Maryland 2.41
16. Arizona 2.41
17. Michigan St 2.33
18. St John’s 2.30
19. Oregon 2.21
20. BYU 2.17
21. Louisville 2.14
22. VCU 1.91
23. UCSD 1.87
24. Arkansas 1.84
25. Colorado St 1.82
26. N Carolina 1.73
27. Georgia 1.67
28. Kansas 1.60
29. Vanderbilt 1.59
31. Indiana 1.52
32. Mississippi St 1.52
39. Texas A&M 1.30
61. Mississippi 0.74
68. Oklahoma 0.67
71. Ohio St 0.62
86. S Carolina 0.45
109. LSU 0.29
 
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A

Aike

Heisman
Mar 17, 2002
75,311
45,919
90
BlueWorldOrder74 said:
Thanks. I have been basically looking at data from 2/3 to current. Good to see we have been playing better and more able to defend. I would think BYU would be a lot higher in this run. As well as Michigan State.
Click to expand...
They have both improved since 2/2, but so have several other teams, us included.
 
A

Aike

Heisman
Mar 17, 2002
75,311
45,919
90
A few things that jump out:

UCLA at 8 and Xavier at 14 could be 11 seeds, and possible second round opponents for us.

If you’re looking for mid-majors who could spoil, look no further than VCU and UCSD at 22 and 23.

Mississippi has noticeably hit a rough patch.

Florida still feels like the most dangerous team in the country to me.
 
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gbl97

gbl97

All-Conference
Mar 12, 2002
3,171
4,506
113
I wonder what our Kenpom numbers are the last 5 weeks?
 
R

RalphDaltonFan

Heisman
Apr 3, 2002
60,113
41,376
113
Aike said:
A few things that jump out:

UCLA at 8 and Xavier at 14 could be 11 seeds, and possible second round opponents for us.

If you’re looking for mid-majors who could spoil, look no further than VCU and UCSD at 22 and 23.

Mississippi has noticeably hit a rough patch.

Florida still feels like the most dangerous team in the country to me.
Click to expand...
Don't be surprised to see Xavier win the BET. They have Freemantle back and they've been most talented offensive team in Big East.
 
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*Fox2Monk*

*Fox2Monk*

Heisman
Jun 10, 2009
42,992
76,606
113
Aike said:
Thought this would be fun to look at. Ran the numbers for only the past 5 weeks.

Keep in mind that with a smaller sample size comes more skew, so any really good or bad game can have an outsized impact.

Also, because my methodology is a little more simplistic than for my normal model, there are extremes at both ends.

Duke, while playing great, isn’t quite this good.

Texas, who I don’t even list, barely registered a pulse after going 2-7.

I would view this as directional data. A pretty good indicator of who is playing well or poorly, but not nearly as accurate as the overall model for predicting overall tournament wins.

Here’s how things look:

1. Duke 5.22
2. Florida 4.05
3. Auburn 3.56
4. Gonzaga 3.28
5. Texas Tech 3.09
6. Clemson 2.9303
7. Kentucky 2.9299
8. UCLA 2.83
9. Tennessee 2.75
10. Houston 2.70
11. Missouri 2.60
12. Iowa St 2.59
13. Alabama 2.49
14. Xavier 2.45
15. Maryland 2.41
16. Arizona 2.41
17. Michigan St 2.33
18. St John’s 2.30
19. Oregon 2.21
20. BYU 2.17
21. Louisville 2.14
22. VCU 1.91
23. UCSD 1.87
24. Arkansas 1.84
25. Colorado St 1.82
26. N Carolina 1.73
27. Georgia 1.67
28. Kansas 1.60
29. Vanderbilt 1.59
31. Indiana 1.52
32. Mississippi St 1.52
39. Texas A&M 1.30
61. Mississippi 0.74
68. Oklahoma 0.67
71. Ohio St 0.62
86. S Carolina 0.45
109. LSU 0.29
Click to expand...
Any thing around 3 is nice. I like to see we are trending up, our play has shown that overall. Duke is wrecking such weak teams their metrics are always gonna be crazy. To be fair they wreck Illinois and they are pretty good. UNC while not being anything special isn’t a total cakewalk and they owned them too. Plus beat UofL at Louisville but outside this window.
 
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A

Aike

Heisman
Mar 17, 2002
75,311
45,919
90
Aike said:
A few things that jump out:

UCLA at 8 and Xavier at 14 could be 11 seeds, and possible second round opponents for us.

If you’re looking for mid-majors who could spoil, look no further than VCU and UCSD at 22 and 23.

Mississippi has noticeably hit a rough patch.

Florida still feels like the most dangerous team in the country to me.
Click to expand...
Aike said:
A few things that jump out:

UCLA at 8 and Xavier at 14 could be 11 seeds, and possible second round opponents for us.

If you’re looking for mid-majors who could spoil, look no further than VCU and UCSD at 22 and 23.

Mississippi has noticeably hit a rough patch.

Florida still feels like the most dangerous team in the country to me.
Click to expand...
*should have said UCLA could be a 6. Still a potential second round opponent.
 
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B

BAsil2Tyler

Junior
Mar 13, 2003
6,238
329
83
Aike said:
Thought this would be fun to look at. Ran the numbers for only the past 5 weeks.

Keep in mind that with a smaller sample size comes more skew, so any really good or bad game can have an outsized impact.

Also, because my methodology is a little more simplistic than for my normal model, there are extremes at both ends.

Duke, while playing great, isn’t quite this good.

Texas, who I don’t even list, barely registered a pulse after going 2-7.

I would view this as directional data. A pretty good indicator of who is playing well or poorly, but not nearly as accurate as the overall model for predicting overall tournament wins.

Here’s how things look:

1. Duke 5.22
2. Florida 4.05
3. Auburn 3.56
4. Gonzaga 3.28
5. Texas Tech 3.09
6. Clemson 2.9303
7. Kentucky 2.9299
8. UCLA 2.83
9. Tennessee 2.75
10. Houston 2.70
11. Missouri 2.60
12. Iowa St 2.59
13. Alabama 2.49
14. Xavier 2.45
15. Maryland 2.41
16. Arizona 2.41
17. Michigan St 2.33
18. St John’s 2.30
19. Oregon 2.21
20. BYU 2.17
21. Louisville 2.14
22. VCU 1.91
23. UCSD 1.87
24. Arkansas 1.84
25. Colorado St 1.82
26. N Carolina 1.73
27. Georgia 1.67
28. Kansas 1.60
29. Vanderbilt 1.59
31. Indiana 1.52
32. Mississippi St 1.52
39. Texas A&M 1.30
61. Mississippi 0.74
68. Oklahoma 0.67
71. Ohio St 0.62
86. S Carolina 0.45
109. LSU 0.29
Click to expand...
Aike, I am very appreciative of your work. Thank you. Always.
 
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A

Aike

Heisman
Mar 17, 2002
75,311
45,919
90
_TrueBlue84_ said:
Great stuff! Top three make sense to me except that I would think Auburn and Florida are a lot closer to Duke than numbers suggest.
Click to expand...

There is some skew to that Duke number for sure, but they have been demoralizing their schedule.

Definitely beatable, and I maintain that Florida feels more dangerous.

Never know what might happen when the lights get bright, though. Alabama made that run last year, and they are definitely in the mix to do it again, especially if they can get a better handle on ball security.
 
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