I agree that we have virtually 0 chance to make a run in the tourney without Amile. With that said, as mentioned above, KenPom's numbers aren't nearly as predictive as his website makes it seem -- as they continue to update the numbers through the tourney. As last year proved (and UNC's titles have underscored), the question is not whether Duke has played top 20 defense over the season -- but whether it's capable of playing top 20 defense by the end of the year when it rachets up the intensity. With Amile, I think we certainly are capable. Without Amile, I'm not confident b/c I just think our margin for error becomes so small and we start to face significant issues against any team with a strong 4.