Any chance Murphy gets 1 seed in West or does Starmount have it on lock?
- Thread starter KW2346
- Start date
If all finish 8-2, the first part of the equation is .800 then it comes down to the opponents winning pct and the opponents’ opponents winning pct.
Thats where all these numbers come into play. Its crazy!!
Starmount had Mount Airy, East Surry and Forbush as non-conference opponents. MA should win their two games (Surry Central and East Surry); East Surry might go 1-1 (Forbush & MA); Forbush might go 0-2 (North Surry & East Surry).
I wish the formula gave more important to what the actual team does instead of the opponents.
40% is what your team can determine
60% is what your opponents determine
50-40-10 would make more sense
Thats where all these numbers come into play. Its crazy!!
Starmount had Mount Airy, East Surry and Forbush as non-conference opponents. MA should win their two games (Surry Central and East Surry); East Surry might go 1-1 (Forbush & MA); Forbush might go 0-2 (North Surry & East Surry).
I wish the formula gave more important to what the actual team does instead of the opponents.
40% is what your team can determine
60% is what your opponents determine
50-40-10 would make more sense
I'm not sold on corvian this year. I do believe that the charter school to watch is community school of Davidson.
Corvian beat them by 1 pt on Friday....I think they both are overrated
Or 60-40 and forget that OOWP mess. Too many variables that can’t be controlled.
While I understand most people just want to focus on what your team does, but what would stop a team from scheduling easy teams and going 10-0? Or one hard team and go 9-1? The OWP and OOWP ties in more teams to the equation, thus making the equation more fair. The OWP and OOWP pulls in the "strength of schedule argument".
If team A is 10-0 and team team B is 10-0, who is the better team? We have no idea unless we look at who they played. Team A may have played teams that were 8-2 teams, while team B only played .500 or worse teams. This is why OWP comes into play. With this, we know team A should be ranked higher.
Now, lets say that team A and team B are both 10-0 again, and both played all 8-2 teams. Their OWP would be the same, but we have to figure out if all of those 8-2 teams are actually good. You do that by looking at their opponents. If team A opponents, opponents all played other 10-0, 9-1, 8-2, 7-3, teams, those 8-2 records are pretty good, as they beat other good teams. If team's B opponents, opponents all played .500 and worse teams, those, then we know that team B's opponents, opponents aren't as good as team A's. That is where OOWP comes in.
If SOS is a major factor, I don’t see how any 2a team in the west is seeded ahead of Murphy if the final record of all the top contenders is 8-2. If Murphy wins out, it will have won another SMC title and will own wins over 5a Franklin, 3a East Surry, 2a power Swain on the road, and 1a favorite Robbinsville. The only losses would be road losses to 6a AC Reynolds and undefeated 1a powerhouse and state title favorite Heard County, GA. What am I missing?
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Thats why i dont understand Alleghany ahead of East Wilkes at all.. Look at Hibriten and Mt.Airy they both are a lot better than Grayson and North Surry…those are two of EW only 3 losses by a combined 10 points … and those two teams have only lost 3 games between them… With Starmount only losing two games… i dont get it…and on top of that EW beat Alleghany soundly… along with West Wilkes…
While those teams help your OWP, teams like Cherokee, Roseman and Andrews hurt it. Murphy opponents have a record of 33-33, while Starmount opponents are 36-28. Not sure it will be enough to overcome but Murphy does play two teams that are 5-3, while Starmount plays a 5-3 & a 3-5 team.
Both Murphy and Starmount have a very similar OOWP.
Alleghany is ahead of EW because of their own record of 6-2 VS EW @ 5-3. A lot of teams fought for team record to count for more than that OWP and OOWP, so NCHSAA switched the percentages this year.
EW does have a higher OWP than Alleghany and a tad higher OOWP. Alleghany's RPI is only .01999 higher. Alleghany does play NW (4-4), while EW plays WC (5-3). Assuming both win, that will increase EW OWP more than the increase Alleghany will get from beating NW. I don't have time to do the math to see if that will be enough to pass Alleghany, but I do think it will be extremely close.
Edit to add: Both Alleghany and EW play Elkin so did not include that in any math, as I expect both will win.
Murphy has wins over 4 teams that currently have 3 wins or less. Three of those teams needed to get you more points in out of conference wins but they didn’t. I would argue Rosman did you as favorable of a job as they could with their schedule and snagged “you” two wins over East Henderson and Copper Basin. This is what Rosman should have done with their schedule to help build some momentum because there are very few teams in NC they can compete with, so although not a quality win, they gave you as much quality as they could. Reynolds is weak this year (definitely by their standards) and stands a very good chance of losing to Roberson putting them at 4 losses on the year which would be very uncharacteristic for them. Andrews lost every non-conference game to sub .500 teams.
Long story short, Murphy went out and controlled what they could control with their out of conference schedule and wins but you just didn’t have a great RPI boosting conference that got a lot done in out of conference and the Reynolds loss didn’t get as many points as it normally would.
Here is an example of SOS mattering, other than what is pointed out above.
Bishop McGuinness is 8-1. Should they be seeded above Starmount, Alleghany, Murphy, East Wilkes & Swain? All of those teams have 2-3 loses. No they shouldn't because their OWP is .30159 while everyone else listed has a .53 or better. Their OOWP is also low at .44184, while again everyone else listed has .51 or better.
Bishop McGuinness is 8-1. Should they be seeded above Starmount, Alleghany, Murphy, East Wilkes & Swain? All of those teams have 2-3 loses. No they shouldn't because their OWP is .30159 while everyone else listed has a .53 or better. Their OOWP is also low at .44184, while again everyone else listed has .51 or better.
I think it's way to complicated for a formula, but I do wish 1A/2A teams could get a bonus for playing 5A/6A teams. For those smaller schools, even playing a good team like Erwin who is 2-6 this year, that's a much more difficult game than playing a 5-3 3A team.
Personally, I think Murphy will get the 1 seed. Assuming Murphy, Starmount, EW, Alleghany all win out and solely based off their remaining opponents. Murphys remaining opponents are 10-6, Starmount 8-8, EW 7-9 and Alleghany 6-10, therefore Murphys OWP will rise over the rest. Now I know there is the OOWP to factor in and can balance things out. Theres simply way too much math involved in this, I'm just trying to keep it simple.
Anyways, my prediction is:
1-Murphy
2- Starmount
3- East Wilkes
4- Alleghany
Anyways, my prediction is:
1-Murphy
2- Starmount
3- East Wilkes
4- Alleghany
RPI isn't perfect, as no system is but if you look at VB playoffs. Same formula, same 48 team brackets, it's done a fairly good job seeding teams. There have been some upsets, which we all want to see at times. But for the most part the higher seeded teams (unless really close in seeds) consistently won the 1st round. Most of the top 8, who got byes, won the second round games. After that it's really about who is playing the best anyway. I have problems with it also - definitely wish there was a way to include head to head but I believe it's better than any past system we used.
I done some figuring and if games goes like the predictions, Murphy will edge Starmount out.
If Swain beats Murphy, then it changes stuff.
If Swain beats Murphy, then it changes stuff.
Murphy’s opponents opponents will give them the edge (specifically AC Reynolds & Franklin).
TC Roberson will probably beat AC Reynolds Friday, not sure how much that would change things?
SMC teams S.O.S is weaker this year because rosman is back in the conference.
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Would you agree that the scenario you mention is pretty unlikely? My point of view is that you have some control over your schedule, but much of it is based on the conference you’re assigned. Past that, you have very little control over your opponent’s schedule. So why should you be accountable for that?
Posters have compared it to NCAA basketball. Those schools have much more control over their non-conference schedules, including paying teams to play them. It’s apples to oranges. If included at all, at least minimize oowp.
While that exact scenario may not happen, lets look at 1A right now. Ignoring west and east, let's just look at the top 5 teams based on RPI. You have 4 that are undefeated and one that is 6-3. How would you seed them (again, lets ignore the east and west part). Who is seeded #1 and why? Why should Kipp be seeded above South Davidson when they are both 9-0? Where does Robbinsville get seeded at, since they are only 6-3?
| 1 | KIPP Pride | 9-0-0 | 1.00000 | 0.48611 | 0.48799 | 0.69204 |
| 2 | Northside - Pinetown | 9-0-0 | 1.00000 | 0.41468 | 0.49280 | 0.66443 |
| 3 | Bear Grass Charter | 7-0-0 | 1.00000 | 0.31706 | 0.48514 | 0.62385 |
| 4 | Robbinsville | 6-3-0 | 0.66667 | 0.58025 | 0.52187 | 0.60314 |
| 5 | South Davidson | 9-0-0 | 1.00000 | 0.18056 | 0.46407 | 0.56504 |
Well is there RPI calculated off only 9 games? Wouldn't seem "fair" if others are playing 10 game seasons....
To be honest, schools that played out-of-state schools like in VA will only have 9 games calculated in the formula. Virginia has another week of regular season next week.
There are some schools that only have 9 games scheduled due to the new realignment and difficulty of finding opponents.
they will just go with what they have.
There are some schools that only have 9 games scheduled due to the new realignment and difficulty of finding opponents.
they will just go with what they have.
If we remove OOWP, and bump winning percentage and OWP to each 50% (currently at 40% while OOWP is 20%), this is what 1A would look like. You can see that it would only change a couple schools and that is only be a seed or two. I know that could be the difference between a home game or being on the road, but I do think having OOWP pulls in more of the strength of schedule logic.
| Current Rank | New Rank | School | Current RPI | New RPI - No OOWP |
| 1 | 1 | KIPP Pride | 0.69204 | 0.743055 |
| 2 | 2 | Northside - Pinetown | 0.66443 | 0.70734 |
| 3 | 3 | Bear Grass Charter | 0.62385 | 0.65853 |
| 4 | 4 | Robbinsville | 0.60314 | 0.62346 |
| 5 | 5 | South Davidson | 0.56504 | 0.59028 |
| 6 | 6 | Wilson Prep | 0.50517 | 0.51587 |
| 8 | 7 | Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy | 0.49535 | 0.506945 |
| 7 | 8 | Washington County | 0.49784 | 0.50434 |
| 9 | 9 | Hobgood Charter | 0.44458 | 0.449235 |
| 10 | 10 | Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy | 0.41206 | 0.40926 |
| 11 | 11 | Sallie B. Howard | 0.38542 | 0.36607 |
| 12 | 12 | East Columbus | 0.37122 | 0.362435 |
| 13 | 13 | North Stokes | 0.36512 | 0.354165 |
| 14 | 14 | Columbia | 0.35664 | 0.343055 |
| 17 | 15 | College Prep & Leadership Academy | 0.31199 | 0.305555 |
| 16 | 16 | Winston-Salem Preparatory Academy | 0.31402 | 0.29861 |
| 15 | 17 | Rosman | 0.3254 | 0.2875 |
| 19 | 18 | Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy | 0.30221 | 0.28274 |
| 18 | 19 | Andrews | 0.30847 | 0.26102 |
| 20 | 20 | Weldon | 0.30033 | 0.260415 |
| 21 | 21 | North Edgecombe | 0.27676 | 0.237105 |
| 22 | 22 | Chatham Central | 0.2654 | 0.23611 |
| 23 | 23 | Jones | 0.23862 | 0.19213 |
Thanks Deana. Wasn't sure how they handled that situation.
Seems crazy to me though, Alleghany and Mt airy both played out of state schools but still managed to play 10 games.
Out of state opponents count, assuming they have data in MaxPreps.
Per NCHSAA:
Out-of-state opponents from the following states will be counted the same as in-state opponents, provided they have a verified MaxPreps account and schedule:
– Georgia
– South Carolina
– Tennessee
– Virginia
All other out-of-state opponents will be handled in the following manner:
Their direct winning percentage (for example, .750) will count toward the formula, but each of their opponents will have a .500 winning percentage assigned.
She didn't say va games didn't count.....she said only 9 games from the Virginia team factors into the formula for NC teams...bc Virginias 10th game is week 1 of NC playoffs. I wish NC seeded the same way va does ...they have a formula that works really well in my opinion.
For example:
If Alleghany finished 8-2 for .800 pct
The 10 schools that Alleghany face total records would be 49-50. Now with Grayson only playing 9 games by the end of this week and assuming they play other VA schools there opponents’ opponents records will be lacking games due to having one more game to play in that state.
Starmount can finish 8-2 and if everyone wins based on predictions, their opponents will have 53-47 (100 games) record and a total record 506-492.
Starmount’s opponent Mount Airy and Alleghany played a VA team so that’s why it’s not 1000 total games.
If Alleghany finished 8-2 for .800 pct
The 10 schools that Alleghany face total records would be 49-50. Now with Grayson only playing 9 games by the end of this week and assuming they play other VA schools there opponents’ opponents records will be lacking games due to having one more game to play in that state.
Starmount can finish 8-2 and if everyone wins based on predictions, their opponents will have 53-47 (100 games) record and a total record 506-492.
Starmount’s opponent Mount Airy and Alleghany played a VA team so that’s why it’s not 1000 total games.
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Been hearing that logic for a while. Just respectfully disagree. Nor do I think they should include who has the best concessions or band. I just don’t see the relevance. And you’re right. A home game versus on the road can change the whole trajectory in the playoffs. Especially if it means a four hour trip on an activity bus.
For what it’s worth, I also hated it when the state championship games were played on campus, based on whether it was your year (east or west) to host. I believe playing at home has a big effect in high school sports. And, as much as possible, let the teams control their destiny.
Without the oowp it would be worse.
Example if Andrews played a homeschool team that played 9 other homeschool teams they may all have a good record which would help Andrews but they probably would be bad teams.
Using the oowp shows who those 9 homeschool teams play.
I don't like rpi regardless though.
Example if Andrews played a homeschool team that played 9 other homeschool teams they may all have a good record which would help Andrews but they probably would be bad teams.
Using the oowp shows who those 9 homeschool teams play.
I don't like rpi regardless though.