I do wonder if the end of the 5th year senior has sort of leveled the edge that experienced transfers had over younger talent. For instance, we'd have never been able to grab Carr, Butler or Jrob.. all 3 I believe spent 4 years honing their craft to eventually become highly sought after transfers. That means not only getting better and being more experienced, but also using that additional year showed more proof of their value (less chance of just an outlier year).
Point being, these transfers are not 5th year guys. They are a year younger and year with less experience (or for some, even less). Might be part of the difference we are seeing.