ARRINTEN PAGE IS A ‘CAT!

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Those highlights look pretty good from an offense point of view. He seems like he try more shot blocking from the side/rear rather than bodying up on guys.

I do note that the majority of the teams he faced in the highlights were, uh, less than challenging programs.

 

[DaCat]

The two 3-pointers he made in the highlights are two more than Big Matt had his whole career. The upside is promising.

 

[hoosboot]

I get scared when we are expecting rapid mass improvement from a player on his third stop. He had P5 Coaching staffs in the first two stops and ended up out of the rotation. I like both James and the Wizard, but this IMO may take some time to get to where we need it to be. Big Matt was a defensive stopper and we shouldn’t expect the same no matter how much athleticism we see. Hopefully there is a gain on the offensive side to offset the defensive loss.

Now Reid and Green have the potential to both be in our top 4 scorers next season. I don’t see them shying away from playing the big boys. Their challenge will be on defense. The Wizard has his work cut out for himself and this team blends together. Maybe more shootouts next year and we seem to have enough bodies to pick up the pace.

I would agree with your first sentence for any position other than the 5. It's really rare for big men to be polished right out of high school and really common for them to take three+ years to develop into rotation guys. That's why I have been so skeptical about having a skinny 3-star frosh as the answer on a B1G team hoping to make the Dance.

The hope is that Page has been sold and bought into a vision where his already capable defensive abilities are first, being a force in rebounding (hopefully improved over Big Matt) is second, and scoring opportunistically (without a significant amount of plays called for him) is a distant third. There is no need for him to be a 15 and 10 guy (a 7 & 7 guys would be incredible), so if the team could get 22-24 minutes of that, I think it would be thrilled. Setting expectations appropriately are important.

 

[prez77]

I would agree with your first sentence for any position other than the 5. It's really rare for big men to be polished right out of high school and really common for them to take three+ years to develop into rotation guys. That's why I have been so skeptical about having a skinny 3-star frosh as the answer on a B1G team hoping to make the Dance.

The hope is that Page has been sold and bought into a vision where his already capable defensive abilities are first, being a force in rebounding (hopefully improved over Big Matt) is second, and scoring opportunistically (without a significant amount of plays called for him) is a distant third. There is no need for him to be a 15 and 10 guy (a 7 & 7 guys would be incredible), so if the team could get 22-24 minutes of that, I think it would be thrilled. Setting expectations appropriately are important.

Not to be picky here, because I agree with you basically, but if he is a 7 & 7 guy in 22 minutes, then he would be about a 15 & 10 guy if he played starter minutes.

 

[UpsetAlert]

In his two seasons, Page produced consistent numbers, according to Evan Miyakawa.
Miyakawa rates players based on productivity adjusted by playing time (as opposed to aggregate stats).

He played about 500 possessions each season, or about 20% of the available minutes.
At USC as a freshman, he had a DPR (Defensive Performance Rating) of 1.46 and an OPR of -0.55.
At Cincy as a sophomore, he had a DPR (Defensive Performance Rating) of 1.98 and an OPR of -0.43.
An Average D1 player gets a zero in each category. Average Power 5 rotation players score about 2.5 for OPR+DPR.

That means he is well above average defensively (41st of 168 in the Big 12)
Page ranked well below average offensively (149th of 168 in the Big 12).
Thru 2 seasons.

Luke Hunger had a DPR of -0.61 (192nd of 196 in the Big Ten) and an OPR of 0.60 last season.
Nicholson had a DPR of 3.42 (2nd of 196 in the Big Ten) and an OPR of 1.83 last season.
Fitzmorris had a DPR of -1.21 (195th of 196 in the Big Ten) and an OPR of 1.82 last season.

Is Miyakowa the same guy whose model got you dunked on earlier this week?

 

[UpsetAlert]

Answer: Yes!

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Is Miyakowa the same guy whose model got you dunked on earlier this week?

I can’t figure out why his rating is clearly superior to anything else out there. It makes no sense to anyone but one person.

 

[Hungry Jack]

I can’t figure out why his rating is clearly superior to anything else out there. It makes no sense to anyone but one person.

By all accounts, he is a tireless worker and drop dead serious about NU hoops.

 

[hdhntr1]

At 240, he might be fairly quick on his feet and if he can shoot the three he sounds like the kind of center Collins has always wanted. That he didn't get a lot of play at two prior schools is concerning. He'll have to be a quick study on defense to get up to speed or the Cats will definitely suffer there.

It is why it would be nice to have him on campus this spring but too late for that

 

[hdhntr1]

Great! So Page is better than Boo!!


(I'm just giving you a hard time PWB... )

Because he deserves it

 

[hdhntr1]

Not to be picky here, because I agree with you basically, but if he is a 7 & 7 guy in 22 minutes, then he would be about a 15 & 10 guy if he played starter minutes.

22 minutes is basically starters minutes for a 5. They tend to be in for less minutes than other guys and 22 is more than 50%. That we only have two bigs means he likely gets more

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Is Miyakowa the same guy whose model got you dunked on earlier this week?

There are a few people who don't understand Miyakawa's approach. They're loud and ignorant on the subject.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Because he deserves it

Just trying to help you gain knowledge.

 

[docrugby1]

There are a few people who don't understand Miyakawa's approach. They're loud and ignorant on the subject.

I agree but his Sumo rating system is better

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

I agree but his Sumo rating system is better

It’s just as good that’s for sure!

 

[hoosboot]

22 minutes is basically starters minutes for a 5. They tend to be in for less minutes than other guys and 22 is more than 50%. That we only have two bigs means he likely gets more

Yeah...I was just kind of going by Nicholson's minutes last season. I assume most would consider him the starter last year.

22 minutes a game would be a 250% increase over Page's minutes last year, so I'd be thrilled if he was able to handle that amount.

 

[NJCat]

22 minutes a game would be a 250% increase over Page's minutes last year, so I'd be thrilled if he was able to handle that amount.

Math needs work. He played 9.1 min/game last year. 22 minutes/game is

((22-9)/9)*100 = 144%

Many people struggle with this.

 

[hdhntr1]

There are a few people who don't understand Miyakawa's approach. They're loud and ignorant on the subject.

Every rating system brings something to the table. But they all also have biases and flaws (including this one). They can give added information and insight and help highlight things that might be overlooked but this is not a be all end all that you keep on trying to push.

 

[GatoLouco]

MIN/PTS/REB/BLK/AST/STL

Last year, Arrinten averaged:
09/3.5/2.3/0.5/0.4/0.3

If, next year, he averages:
22/8.6/5.6/1.2/1.0/0.7

I am OK with that. That's just straight up extrapolation from 9 to 22 minutes.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Every rating system brings something to the table. But they all also have biases and flaws (including this one). They can give added information and insight and help highlight things that might be overlooked but this is not a be all end all that you keep on trying to push.

Unless you can name the flaws or biases, the numbers stand on their own.
And, of course, as you well know, I have never said any specific set of player ratings is "an end all be all."
You're "moving the goalposts."

Miyakawa's ratings are the most comprehensive (and best) free player ratings.
Thats what I said and thats the truth.
Anyone can prove me wrong by offering something better.
And I will gladly start using those numbers to inform myself.

However, Miyakawa's ratings are far superior to the opinions of any individual, who simply don't have the data or processing power that the algorithms have.

It would be very refreshing to hear someone say "Wow, those numbers don't align with my thinking - I wonder what I'm missing here." instead of "I'm a genius, those numbers suck" which is laughable and (honestly) stupid.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Miyakawa's ratings are normalized based on minutes played.
How well did the team play when this guy was in the game and how much did each player contribute - offensively and defensively.
Who was on the court with him and against him?
Exactly which player did what on each possession.
Extrapolate that to 40 minutes.

Miyakawa's ratings are very impressive - the scope and scale are fantastic.

If you combine Miyakawa and Torvik, that will probably align better with how you view players.
Like many people, you skew toward "playing time" being a better indicator of value. Thats fine - it could help the ratings.

Miyakawa has a rating of 2.89 for Ty Berry, a 2.87 rating for Jalen Leach and a 2.69 rating for Martinelli.
Those are essentially equal - nobody other than you is ranting about Martinelli being slightly below the other 2.
Leach missed a lot of time. Berry was a better defender than Martinelli.

Take it with a grain of salt.... Miyakawa is NOT declaring to the world that Martinelli was the 5th best player on the team.
He's rating the play of each player when he was in the game.

You keep pointing out that you think the ratings cocktail from this random guy is very impressive despite everybody pointing out the final results are obviously garbage. You’re not even bothering to argue for the methodology.

You just like people who make big spreadsheets of nonsense.

 

[CappyNU]

Just as an FYI, Torvik also rates Nick as the 5th-best player last year by Box Plus/Minus, driven by his defensive deficiencies. He was rated 2nd-best on offense behind Brooks and 2nd-worst on defense ahead of Hunger. However, as many are aware, BPM is less useful when a player plays nearly all 40 minutes in games. Nick played 38mpg in conference play, so there's barely any ability to measure the impact when he was off the court.

All datasets can provide useful information - no dataset is the absolute source of truth.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

The only reason this keeps surfacing that is a certain rating system that aligns with a posters general perceptions and therefore it lives in perpetuity.

When rating systems rank players in what Is a bizarre way to anyone with 2 eyes, you look at the methodology and try to determine a reason. Often reasons are given and they are ignored if they don’t fit a narrative. Honestly, any ranking system that Ranks Nick as the 5th most efficient player is garbage. It’s nonsensical. Don’t care to explore it further and waste time analyzing an algorithm. The Coaches and Media vote on all Big Ten teams, personally I certainly trust their voting than some ranking system that I believe the author won’t even claim identify the best players.

 

[techtim72]

Math needs work. He played 9.1 min/game last year. 22 minutes/game is

((22-9)/9)*100 = 144%

Many people struggle with this.

I got a kick out of your comment. I swear most journalists get the math and description on percentages wrong. Saying a 200% increase when something doubles is a standard error.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Math needs work. He played 9.1 min/game last year. 22 minutes/game is

((22-9)/9)*100 = 144%

Many people struggle with this.

I'm not sure how you come up with 250%, unless he was spitballing it (4/9 is reasonably close to 50%) and got tripped up on the 200% = double trope.

 

[hdhntr1]

I'm not sure how you come up with 250%, unless he was spitballing it (4/9 is reasonably close to 50%) and got tripped up on the 200% = double trope.

Actually probably 22/9. is 244% of the 9 minutes. (close to 250%) I have seen plenty of people put that out as a 244% increase when it is really a 144% increase

 

[Hungry Jack]

Only on a Northwestern thread, would we debate how people make stupid math mistakes

 

[techtim72]

Only on a Northwestern thread, would we debate how people make stupid math mistakes

Hungry, you are absolutely right but I just see numbers and statistics butchered all the time by journalists, usually in an effort to skewer someone. I sometimes think I am the only one who notices because I am one of the few today that can still do math in my head without using a calculator. Good to know the Rivals NU crowd operates on a higher plane.

 

[1830 Sherman]

Hungry, you are absolutely right but I just see numbers and statistics butchered all the time by journalists, usually in an effort to skewer someone. I sometimes think I am the only one who notices because I am one of the few today that can still do math in my head without using a calculator. Good to know the Rivals NU crowd operates on a higher plane.

Look out your window--isn't there a journalist on your lawn you can go yell at?

 

[techtim72]

Look out your window--isn't there a journalist on your lawn you can go yell at?

Spoken by a journalist bad at numbers? True I am not a fan of today's journalists writ large and I rarely miss an opportunity to let my feelings known, but even so there are many I admire greatly. I am a product of my background and education. When, for example, non-financial journalists misleadingly butcher financial balance sheet terms, it drives me a a little crazy as to why they don't educate themselves before implying criticism in a story. On the other hand, my grammar and spelling can be atrocious, so truthfully I have little room to criticize. Of course, my ignorance isn't published for the world to see except on blogs like this.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Only on a Northwestern thread, would we debate how people make stupid math mistakes

These numbers are... Kafkaesque.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Hungry, you are absolutely right but I just see numbers and statistics butchered all the time by journalists, usually in an effort to skewer someone. I sometimes think I am the only one who notices because I am one of the few today that can still do math in my head without using a calculator. Good to know the Rivals NU crowd operates on a higher plane.

Agreed. Too much abuse of stats in this world. All of those humanities majors are quantitatively illiterate.

 

[PURPLECAT88]

Agreed. Too much abuse of stats in this world. All of those humanities majors are quantitatively illiterate.

Hey! I resemble that remark.

 

[docrugby1]

Hungry, you are absolutely right but I just see numbers and statistics butchered all the time by journalists, usually in an effort to skewer someone. I sometimes think I am the only one who notices because I am one of the few today that can still do math in my head without using a calculator. Good to know the Rivals NU crowd operates on a higher plane.

What is a calculator?

 

[hoosboot]

MIN/PTS/REB/BLK/AST/STL

Last year, Arrinten averaged:
09/3.5/2.3/0.5/0.4/0.3

If, next year, he averages:
22/8.6/5.6/1.2/1.0/0.7

I am OK with that. That's just straight up extrapolation from 9 to 22 minutes.

If only that were the magic way that production grows. Given the history of this stuff, we'll be really thrilled if he plays the kinds of minutes load that Nicholbomb played this last year...which would be a 2,450,000,000% increase.

 

[Deeringfish]

What is a calculator?

It's like an electrical slide rule thingy. I will never catch on!

 

[stpaulcat]

Page is very unusual transfer for NU. We have had the stretch 5 types like Nance, bulkier 5 like Nicholson and the long 5 like Fitzmorris. Page seems move like a raw athlete which NU either doesn't get or doesn't go after. On the pessimistic side: 3rd school in 3 years makes me skeptical especially since he didn't get tick at either place. However on the optimistic side, raw athletic player (i.e. still learning basketball) take a lot longer to develop and often struggle in early years. I am really interested to see how collins changes his offensive game plan with Page. At a minimum, he should be able to rebound and should be athletic enough to run a higher pace offense.

Perhaps the previous schools have better bigs, and he wants playing time??

 

[hdhntr1]

What is a calculator?

Working with the slide rule or still using the abacus?

 

[docrugby1]

It's like an electrical slide rule thingy. I will never catch on!

Oh! I may get one, as my slide rule flips out of my pocket all the time

 

[ETown Jim]

Perhaps the previous schools have better bigs, and he wants playing time??

It's way more interesting.

According to reports, a UCF assistant coach shopped himself and former 5* center Moustapha Thiam as a package, demanding a two-year guaranteed salary, above market for an assistant. Most passed, Cincinnati ended up with the center and asst coach.

This happened in mid to late April.

Arrinten Page had bided his time playing behind a last-year center who statistically was the same Page, but had more familiarity with the coach. Page was due to start in '25 - '26. Suddenly, he's back on the bench, filling in at best 8-10 mins. a game.

So he jumped. I believe to a far better situation for Mr. Page and his family. He's with a staff that has deep experience developing bigs. He's on a roster where he's the undisputed starting center. And he gets to display his skills in the Big Ten.

Justifiable, defensible, smart move.