Ask Soucie: Week 5 Playoff Projection Question thread
- Thread starter Anon1754760634
- Start date
Man I hope the 8A projections get dumped into the blender, left on overnight and in the morning,..everyone in different spots! No place to hide in the 8A grouping - but I think I would rather be in the upper half of 16 than the lower half.
Soucie - who do you have Waubonsie losing to for earning the 18 seed. Naperville central and the Neuqua rematch? Prarie Ridge? Their playoff points are really wierd this year with so many non conference games and playing Neuqua twice. I think last week they earned 7 points in ONE Week with Eville winning, OPRF winning, PR winning, Libertyville winning, Neuqua winning, Naperville Central winning And Neuqua winning again (two game slots for them so count the points twice? And Neuqua gets WVs wins twice?).
Soucie - who do you have Waubonsie losing to for earning the 18 seed. Naperville central and the Neuqua rematch? Prarie Ridge? Their playoff points are really wierd this year with so many non conference games and playing Neuqua twice. I think last week they earned 7 points in ONE Week with Eville winning, OPRF winning, PR winning, Libertyville winning, Neuqua winning, Naperville Central winning And Neuqua winning again (two game slots for them so count the points twice? And Neuqua gets WVs wins twice?).
Last edited:
As a point of clarification, on your projection, you are projecting W/L for the remainder of the season, and not based on current standings.
As a slightly related topic, how do the mechanics of the Success factor work? Is it pretty much established where the SF teams will be? Your projection has Naz as one of the largest 5As, pre-SF. IHSA's current outlook has them as one of the smallest 6As. So do we know for sure where the starting point is for them at this point?
As a slightly related topic, how do the mechanics of the Success factor work? Is it pretty much established where the SF teams will be? Your projection has Naz as one of the largest 5As, pre-SF. IHSA's current outlook has them as one of the smallest 6As. So do we know for sure where the starting point is for them at this point?
I project every game for the remainder of the season and this bracketing is based on the results of the projection.
I move the success formula teams manually to the class they belong in and do the same for the teams that are "playing up"
I don't like to call anything a "lock" this early.
But considering only 19 teams would need to be removed from the list between them and the bottom of the list to "guarantee" a placement in 8A.
I'd say it is very likely.
Sorry, if my question wasnt totally clear. My understanding is that Naz is bumped up 2 classes from a natural 5a classification. Is there any chance they could be a natural 6a classification and would that change anything? It seems like they are towing that line closer than they would have in the past based on current projections. Finally, in that evaluation, do the opt up teams get factored in before the success factor bump?
Thanks for taking the time to answer questions!
Hey, if you have to be successes up for even making the finals, might as well get the tough games in quarters in and semis. Bring on ESTL!
Very true, I will continue to watch on my iPad from our games back east. So much fun to be forced up for success.
My understanding is that you get bumped up a clas from the class you either won a state title or played in....which in this case would be 7a
Yeah I don’t see Highland. I’m guessing one is supposed to be Highland.
Corrections has been made Highland is the 2 seed Metamora the 3 seed Cahokia is the 4 in 5A south bracket
EDGY
Last edited by a moderator:
You better correct the 5a south bracket there is no way the ihsa will have an all private final! They will switch Sterling and Jca again!
Thanks for the time, effort, dedication and passion for doing this. You indeed are the "Guru"!!!
Thanks. That seems to make more sense and effectively locks in a border class team for the success factor.
All.... Help me oh great Carnac! I'm having trouble figuring out and reconciling your seeding in the Central State Eight Conference. Looking for regular season projected W/L records for Chatham, SHG, Rochester, and Decatur(MacArthur). Thanks! Ratsy
Souc interested to hear who you have beating Tinley Park Andrew. If you are projecting them to go 5-4, that means either Thornridge or Thornwood would have to beat them...
Also, are you projecting Belleville West to go 7-2 or 6-3?
Also, are you projecting Belleville West to go 7-2 or 6-3?
You're right. I think overall the 6A South may be more balanced, but the real heavyweights are in the North.
Souc,
You are going to have to re-think Maine West. They shouldn't lose another game the rest of the way.
You are going to have to re-think Maine West. They shouldn't lose another game the rest of the way.
Agree here... only possible loss would be to Highland Park, other than that, they should finish 8-1 with a win there, or at worse, 7-2... Highland Park is at home and they handled them pretty easily at HP last year... MW has a ton of starters back too...
Last edited: