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Auburn at Kentucky (Game 1)

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Comebakatz3

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Final series of the year. The excitement has worn off for me and I'm pretty ready to wrap this up and cross fingers and toes that we get to enjoy the excitement of a coaching search. If that actually happens, I might pull the trigger on a monthly subscription to D1Baseball. UK has a lot of work to do to get into the NCAA tournament. They likely have to win this weekend and at least win 2 in the SEC tournament to even get a consideration at all.

Auburn comes to Lexington with a whole lot to play for. Just yesterday D1baseball predicted Auburn as a top 8 team at 5th overall, meaning they can host not only a regional, but a super regional. That is a big jump from last year's 12th place finish in the SEC.

I don't think that this Auburn team is invincible, nor do I see them as being all that impressive. They have some really good players such as 1B Sonny DiChiara who is hitting .357 in league play and has 10 home runs and 3B Blake Rambusch who is hitting .376 in league play and has 9 doubles and has stolen 9 of 10 bags. While the team batting average of .273 in league play is solid, the Tigers don't really score a ton of runs nor do they have a ton of power. Their overall batting average is 2nd in the league, but I believe that only Kentucky and South Carolina have hit fewer home runs overall than they have. So, you see a lot of hitting, but not a lot of production off of it.

Weekend pitching for Auburn is an absolute nightmare. Thought UK was poor at pitching? Well Auburn wrote the book on poor. UK's weekend pitching has an ERA of 4.88, which is dwarfed by Auburn's 5.97. Amazingly, Auburn's staff comes in as 7th best in the league overall, despite playing a respectable NC schedule ranked as 65th hardest.

Mason Barnett is likely to pitch tonight. He carries a 6.23 ERA in SEC play with 5 appearances and 3 starts. In 17 innings of work he's given up 12 earned runs. Barnett moved to their Friday night guy once Hayden Mullins was injured in the Tennessee series. I do not expect him to go very long tonight. He hasn't thrown more than 5.1 innings this season. He has been pretty solid lately going 4 full against Arkansas and giving up just 2 runs and going 5.1 against Auburn and giving up just 2 runs. Probably not an overpowering guy that usually picks up about 5 strikeouts an outing, or 1 an inning.

Zack Lee set to go for UK tonight.

Trace Bright (6.86 SEC ERA) will go on Friday. This kid has some nasty stuff and has 45 strikeouts in 39.1 innings of work to show for that. However, he gives up a lot of walks and a whole lot of earned runs (30). So, UK can hit him and hit him hard.

Joseph Gonzalez (3.60 SEC ERA) will go Saturday. He is kind of an enigma. He's pitched 40 innings and gives up a lot of hits (47), but he's given up just 16 earned runs. The key, it seems, is limiting walks and letting opponents put the ball in play. He has just 21 strikeouts, so he isn't going to overpower anyone. He has given up 5 home runs in league play, but it seems like he limits damage well.

So, seems to me like UK needs to do everything possible to get games 1 and 2 and take advantage of poorer pitching. Auburn will hit the ball, it will be up to UK pitchers to limit that damage and keep them from scoring efficiently.
 
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Big_Blue_1018

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I have a subscription to D1Baseball. During a chat a few weeks ago, they were asked about the chances of UK replacing Mingione. Basically said be careful what you wish for that Kentucky is not a top place for a coach to go to. Plus played the injury card and the struggles that brought.
 
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Comebakatz3

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Big_Blue_1018 said:
I have a subscription to D1Baseball. During a chat a few weeks ago, they were asked about the chances of UK replacing Mingione. Basically said be careful what you wish for that Kentucky is not a top place for a coach to go to. Plus played the injury card and the struggles that brought.
Click to expand...

I know you're not them, but I'm going to rant...

We all know that Kentucky is not a top place that a coach wants to be. Louisville shouldn't be a top place that a coach wants to be and yet McDonnell has been there for like 15 years and he's become one of the best coaches in college baseball. Tennessee shouldn't be a top place that a coach wants to be, but Vitello has been there for like 5 years or so and they've given him a monster contract and basically locked him down for life due to the quick and early success he's brought them. Prior to Corbin, the last time that Vandy went to the NCAA tournament in baseball was 1980, a 24 year gap. So, prior to him, they were not a top program and not a place a top coach would want to be.

So, just because we cannot attract a current top coach, doesn't mean we should settle for being one of the worst 3-4 teams in the league annually. This argument makes absolutely no sense.

The injury bug would fly with me if we didn't have SEC finishes of:
2019: 14
2020: 14 - Maybe we don't finish dead last, but it has to be close.
2021: 11
2022: 11/12

That is four years of little to no improvement, and that is giving us the benefit of the doubt on 2018 due to the injury bug. We will also likely lose a pretty large portion of our 2022 contributors, so it looks like 2023 will again be more rebuilding rather than actual roster development coming to fruition.

So, it is hard for me to imagine that we pull ourselves too far out of the 11 and below range with a makeshift roster again next year. We've yet to recruit and develop a single HS pitcher that we can regularly rely on, much less one that is or will be a Friday starter. Given this is the case, it is hard to think that things will get better and to give a pass on the injury bug for the second time in 5 years.
 
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Big_Blue_1018

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Comebakatz3 said:
I know you're not them, but I'm going to rant...

We all know that Kentucky is not a top place that a coach wants to be. Louisville shouldn't be a top place that a coach wants to be and yet McDonnell has been there for like 15 years and he's become one of the best coaches in college baseball. Tennessee shouldn't be a top place that a coach wants to be, but Vitello has been there for like 5 years or so and they've given him a monster contract and basically locked him down for life due to the quick and early success he's brought them. Prior to Corbin, the last time that Vandy went to the NCAA tournament in baseball was 1980, a 24 year gap. So, prior to him, they were not a top program and not a place a top coach would want to be.

So, just because we cannot attract a current top coach, doesn't mean we should settle for being one of the worst 3-4 teams in the league annually. This argument makes absolutely no sense.

The injury bug would fly with me if we didn't have SEC finishes of:
2019: 14
2020: 14 - Maybe we don't finish dead last, but it has to be close.
2021: 11
2022: 11/12

That is four years of little to no improvement, and that is giving us the benefit of the doubt on 2018 due to the injury bug. We will also likely lose a pretty large portion of our 2022 contributors, so it looks like 2023 will again be more rebuilding rather than actual roster development coming to fruition.

So, it is hard for me to imagine that we pull ourselves too far out of the 11 and below range with a makeshift roster again next year. We've yet to recruit and develop a single HS pitcher that we can regularly rely on, much less one that is or will be a Friday starter. Given this is the case, it is hard to think that things will get better and to give a pass on the injury bug for the second time in 5 years.
Click to expand...

I agree with all your points. I think the point the D1 guys were trying to make was the last coaching search, Kentucky casted a wide net only to be told no. Now, I will argue that the program has more to offer now then it did in 2016.

But as far as your other points, you’re spot on.
 
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Comebakatz3

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Big_Blue_1018 said:
I agree with all your points. I think the point the D1 guys were trying to make was the last coaching search, Kentucky casted a wide net only to be told no. Now, I will argue that the program has more to offer now then it did in 2016.

But as far as your other points, you’re spot on.
Click to expand...

I think that Barnhart tried to really hit some grand slams with some proven coaches. That didn't work out. Which was fairly expected given our facilities at the time. I imagine that it is still probably going to be difficult to hire that huge name. Those guys are typically going to go to places where they know for sure that they are going to be well taken care of and they don't have to really try as hard.

I think, once again, UK has to go the assistant route. To find that real Mark Stoops type that wants to be here and that has a plan to make this place work. That has the right connections and hires the right people to make that work. I don't think is is easy to find that guy and we might not land on them immediately. Still, I think we have given Mingione the time he needed to prove he can be that guy, and it hasn't come to fruition. Time to pick again.
 
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SeanCain

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Comebakatz3 said:
I know you're not them, but I'm going to rant...

We all know that Kentucky is not a top place that a coach wants to be. Louisville shouldn't be a top place that a coach wants to be and yet McDonnell has been there for like 15 years and he's become one of the best coaches in college baseball. Tennessee shouldn't be a top place that a coach wants to be, but Vitello has been there for like 5 years or so and they've given him a monster contract and basically locked him down for life due to the quick and early success he's brought them. Prior to Corbin, the last time that Vandy went to the NCAA tournament in baseball was 1980, a 24 year gap. So, prior to him, they were not a top program and not a place a top coach would want to be.

So, just because we cannot attract a current top coach, doesn't mean we should settle for being one of the worst 3-4 teams in the league annually. This argument makes absolutely no sense.

The injury bug would fly with me if we didn't have SEC finishes of:
2019: 14
2020: 14 - Maybe we don't finish dead last, but it has to be close.
2021: 11
2022: 11/12

That is four years of little to no improvement, and that is giving us the benefit of the doubt on 2018 due to the injury bug. We will also likely lose a pretty large portion of our 2022 contributors, so it looks like 2023 will again be more rebuilding rather than actual roster development coming to fruition.

So, it is hard for me to imagine that we pull ourselves too far out of the 11 and below range with a makeshift roster again next year. We've yet to recruit and develop a single HS pitcher that we can regularly rely on, much less one that is or will be a Friday starter. Given this is the case, it is hard to think that things will get better and to give a pass on the injury bug for the second time in 5 years.
Click to expand...
I agree 100%. UK has not traditionally been a good program for any sport but basketball. That’s been because UK has put all resources to basketball and the other sports have suffered. I think Mitch has improved the athletic department in general but it appears his blueprint is for a coach to build it and Mitch will come. UK is going to have to find a coach who can produce and Mitch will provide upgrades, etc. see Mark Stoops as the example. It will be difficult to hire a proven coach unless Mitch opens up the checkbook and gives the coach certain things he needs to be successful. I’m not sure Mitch will do that.
 
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Comebakatz3

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SeanCain said:
I agree 100%. UK has not traditionally been a good program for any sport but basketball. That’s been because UK has put all resources to basketball and the other sports have suffered. I think Mitch has improved the athletic department in general but it appears his blueprint is for a coach to build it and Mitch will come. UK is going to have to find a coach who can produce and Mitch will provide upgrades, etc. see Mark Stoops as the example. It will be difficult to hire a proven coach unless Mitch opens up the checkbook and gives the coach certain things he needs to be successful. I’m not sure Mitch will do that.
Click to expand...

I don't have much criticism of Barnhart other than he is sometimes, IMO, a bit slow to make changes. I think at times he has tried to hit monster deals with certain coaches or upgrades and they have failed or fallen through, but I don't fault him for trying. As we discussed, he swung for the fences last time we tried to hire a baseball coach. To hear tell, he offered to make Cohen a top paid baseball coach prior to Cohen going home to Miss State. So, I don't think he is afraid to open the checkbook.

I'll also say that it is much easier to convince investors to get on board when the product is good. Tennessee struggled to upgrade their field for years... then last year happened and boom... money comes rolling in. So, I think Barnhart has done well, and I think some of the frustration with him is even a product of our programs being so far behind to begin with.
 
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Tskware

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Any word on when the game might start? Rain and lightning in the area, probably won't be clear until 6:30 or so.
 
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Comebakatz3

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Tennessee doing their part to keep UK in the SEC tournament. Winning 9-0 against Miss State, still threatening in the 5th.
 
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Comebakatz3

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UK not out of the woods yet on making the SEC tournament as Missouri took game 1 from Georgia 11-3. Missouri is one game behind UK. So, Missouri would need to win 1 more game and hope that UK gets swept by Auburn, or they need to sweep Georgia and hope that UK only wins 1 against Auburn. I think both of those are unlikely, but anything can happen.

Of course, that is assuming that Alabama stays ahead of UK. They could fall behind if we win a game this series and they don't. Right now they have a higher seed than we do based on the fact that their game last Saturday against Auburn was rained out in the 5th inning and canceled.
 
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Big_Blue_1018

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Comebakatz3 said:
UK not out of the woods yet on making the SEC tournament as Missouri took game 1 from Georgia 11-3. Missouri is one game behind UK. So, Missouri would need to win 1 more game and hope that UK gets swept by Auburn, or they need to sweep Georgia and hope that UK only wins 1 against Auburn. I think both of those are unlikely, but anything can happen.

Of course, that is assuming that Alabama stays ahead of UK. They could fall behind if we win a game this series and they don't. Right now they have a higher seed than we do based on the fact that their game last Saturday against Auburn was rained out in the 5th inning and canceled.
Click to expand...

You know it just flat out sucks that we are even having to have this discussion.
 
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CockyCat3

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SeanCain said:
I agree 100%. UK has not traditionally been a good program for any sport but basketball. That’s been because UK has put all resources to basketball and the other sports have suffered. I think Mitch has improved the athletic department in general but it appears his blueprint is for a coach to build it and Mitch will come. UK is going to have to find a coach who can produce and Mitch will provide upgrades, etc. see Mark Stoops as the example. It will be difficult to hire a proven coach unless Mitch opens up the checkbook and gives the coach certain things he needs to be successful. I’m not sure Mitch will do that.
Click to expand...
I think you can find a proven coach who wants to upgrade to the SEC. I think it is true that UK isn't the spot that a lot of high profile coaching candidates are going to want to go. For example, if SC has an opening like the fanbase is clamoring for (I don't know which fanbase wants a new coach more!) then I think a candidate is going to go there before coming to UK. However, I also think there are coaches that could be a great fit at UK, that a place like SC may not consider because they aren't a big enough name.

I think someone that could be a great fit at either place is Mike McGuire - he is at SC Upstate right now and was at Morehead State before that. He played at Akron and then at SC. He may not be a big enough name for SC, but could be a great fit at UK also. He is from Ohio, and coached in Kentucky, so he knows the recruiting grounds well. The guy is a baseball guy through and through and just wins everywhere he goes. In both examples he took over programs that were traditionally losing programs and immediately turned them into winning programs. Morehead was 116-192 under the previous coach when he got there and his first year they were 16-40. After that first year they were 212-147 - his last year being a 40-21 year. He got to Upstate in a similar spot - they were 152-225 in the 7 years leading up to him arriving and since he has been there they've been 85-40. UK isn't in as bad of a place as these places were, so I would love to see what a guy like this would do here.

Personally I think a guy like this who played at the SEC level and has been a HEAD coach at a mid-major level is a better option to me than someone who has been an assistant coach at the SEC level. I feel like its a big deal to go from assistant to head coach. It does work sometimes (See UT), but I feel like the hit to miss ratio is higher for people who have been head coaches previously than the ones who come up from the assistant ranks right into being a head coach in the SEC.

Coach Holbrook is one of the examples I would use that was a big miss. He was an assistant at SC for a long time, and took over for Ray Tanner and it was a train wreck. He landed at College of Charleston and has figured it out and has them doing well. I think if he got another shot in the SEC he would do MUCH better now that he has had the chance to build a winning program at the Mid-major level.
 
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Comebakatz3

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CockyCat3 said:
I think you can find a proven coach who wants to upgrade to the SEC. I think it is true that UK isn't the spot that a lot of high profile coaching candidates are going to want to go. For example, if SC has an opening like the fanbase is clamoring for (I don't know which fanbase wants a new coach more!) then I think a candidate is going to go there before coming to UK. However, I also think there are coaches that could be a great fit at UK, that a place like SC may not consider because they aren't a big enough name.

I think someone that could be a great fit at either place is Mike McGuire - he is at SC Upstate right now and was at Morehead State before that. He played at Akron and then at SC. He may not be a big enough name for SC, but could be a great fit at UK also. He is from Ohio, and coached in Kentucky, so he knows the recruiting grounds well. The guy is a baseball guy through and through and just wins everywhere he goes. In both examples he took over programs that were traditionally losing programs and immediately turned them into winning programs. Morehead was 116-192 under the previous coach when he got there and his first year they were 16-40. After that first year they were 212-147 - his last year being a 40-21 year. He got to Upstate in a similar spot - they were 152-225 in the 7 years leading up to him arriving and since he has been there they've been 85-40. UK isn't in as bad of a place as these places were, so I would love to see what a guy like this would do here.

Personally I think a guy like this who played at the SEC level and has been a HEAD coach at a mid-major level is a better option to me than someone who has been an assistant coach at the SEC level. I feel like its a big deal to go from assistant to head coach. It does work sometimes (See UT), but I feel like the hit to miss ratio is higher for people who have been head coaches previously than the ones who come up from the assistant ranks right into being a head coach in the SEC.

Coach Holbrook is one of the examples I would use that was a big miss. He was an assistant at SC for a long time, and took over for Ray Tanner and it was a train wreck. He landed at College of Charleston and has figured it out and has them doing well. I think if he got another shot in the SEC he would do MUCH better now that he has had the chance to build a winning program at the Mid-major level.
Click to expand...

I feel like it is somewhat of a crap shoot. I just look at Tennessee as an example. They had Delmonico from 1990 to 2007. He was an assistant at FSU prior to being a head coach. During that time they had some great teams and players and went to the CWS 3 times. Then they hired Todd Raleigh, who had done pretty well with Western Carolina. He won 30 games just 1 time in 4 years, and never finished better than 6th in the East. They then hired a guy I thought would be amazing in Dave Serrano, who as a head coach took both UC Irvine and Cal State Fullerton to the CWS, and before that had been an assistant at UT. He got 6 years and he too only had 1 season with over 30 wins and finished better than 6th just 1 time. Then, of course, they hired the assistant Vitello who has turned them around entirely, at least for now.

So, even the 'proven,' head coach route seems to not necessarily be perfect. Stricklin at Georgia has now been there 8/9 years and it took him to his 5th year to make an NCAA tournament and get over 30 wins. He was one I had high on my list to replace Henderson during his tenure here, but I think he has somewhat underwhelmed at Georgia. Though, he may be righting the ship.

It is a fairly even split on whether SEC teams got coaches as prior assistants or as previous head coaches. However, several of the schools didn't hire mid-major coaches, but rather hired pretty big time coaches (Lemonis from Big10, Schlossnagle from Big12, Johnson from Pac12, Van Horn from Big12).

O'Sullivan - Clemson Asst to Florida HC
Corbin - Clemson Asst to Vandy HC
Vitello - Ark Asst to UT HC
Bohannon - UK/Auburn Asst to Alabama HC
Thompson - Miss State Asst to Auburn HC

Van Horn
Lemonis
Schlossnagle
Bieser
Bianco
Johnson
Stricklin
Kingston


Also... on the USC Baseball wiki page, the Head Coach has been changed to "Mark Bumstein" hahaha.

 
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Comebakatz3

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UK Baseball Twitter put out who will be honored for senior day:

Bosma
Degen
Lee
Liebert
Plastiak
Rubalcaba
Williams
Anu
Fogel
Harney
Harper
Harris
Hazelwood
Jump
Thrasher

It mentions that some of these have eligibility remaining and can opt to return in 2023.

There was a big stink last year that certain graduates who still had eligibility wouldn't be allowed to take place in the ceremonies, and it took a bit of an uproar from some parents to change that. So, not sure this indicates much in regards to who may or may not return for 2023, but there are some names in there (Liebert, Plastiak, Rubalcaba, Lee) that are interesting to see.
 
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Comebakatz3

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SeanCain said:
Exactly and it’s not going to improve next year. I think they will be worse next year.
Click to expand...

39 players on this year's roster and 15 are going through senior day. All of them but 1/2 are/were major contributors to this season. It also doesn't include a draft eligible Estep and anyone that might transfer. So, yea... could be ugly with a huge turnover again.
 
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Comebakatz3

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Just a reminder that this game starts in about 15 minutes. No lineup posted, so I am just assuming that they are going with the same one as last night.
 
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SeanCain

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Successful head coaches have to be able to recruit at a high level and then develop those players. If you can’t do either or neither you are not going to last. Mingione falls in the category of neither. Recruiting is horrible and development seems nonexistent.
 
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CockyCat3

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I agree, that's why I like a guy who has taken teams and turned them around. Obviously there is coaching and development going on there because he takes a team that wasn't winning and all of a sudden they are winning with mostly the same guys.
 
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Comebakatz3

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Lee having some control issues early here. Got the first guy to ground out pretty hard, but now he's let one on and he's all over the place to the 3 hole. We'll see if he settles in.
 
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Comebakatz3

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Bases loaded 1 out. Feels like UK opponents have had bases loaded a million times the last 3 weeks.
 
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