Barchi to Blink (Again)

[MoobyCow]

I'm sorry, but I believe it is true, especially for long time ticket holders.

No one who has spent a lot of money and years building up senority/priority points will stop buying their season tickets and lose all of that because of a coach coming back for another year.

If he comes back it will be for a year, a year in which he either does it or not.

No one will not renew over one year, and if they don't they are foolish, giving up all they have earned to start at zero all over again.

I did it is basketball, and I'll do it for football as well if I think the school doesn't give a crap about winning. It's not about waiting another year, it is about a clear signal that they are going to do the bare minimum for the program, in which case there is no real reason to believe it will get better when they hire the next coach who is barely qualified.

The expectation being that I won't need to 'start over gain at zero' because I won't be starting over again as the program will remain in the toilet. I certainly wasn't proven wrong in basketball.

 

[Tango Two]

No one's giving up BTN.

One end zone ticket is $305 including donation. For that $305 ticket I can keep all 32 of my priority points (a $3200 value) get priority access to Penn State & Michigan tickets & be towards the front of the line when a coaching change is made.

And when you want to re-up to 4 or 6 seats your rolling the dice to what is available, possibly getting much worse seats.

 

[Scarlet_Scourge]

You are acting like there is this huge wait list for season tickets. Give me a break.

 

[Underdogs88]

No one is giving up their season tickets, and losing the priority points and senority that comes with consecutive years as a season ticket holder.

If Flood is our coach next year, I'm reducing my seats from 6 to 4. I had a really hard time getting people to come to the games this year, and my tickets are always free to others. I'm not going to continue to eat seats each week if no one wants to come. I'm sure I'm not the only one.

 

[Upstream]

No one is giving up their season tickets, and losing the priority points and senority that comes with consecutive years as a season ticket holder.

Sure they will. We saw it happen in basketball during the FHJ era. Some people gave up all their season tickets. And some people gave up part of their packages. Even die-hard basketball fans reduced the number of tickets they held from 6 to 4 to 2.

We easily could see a 20% drop in season ticket sales. That's 6000 seats right there. Plus you would see a significant drop in single game sales (except for Mich and PSU, where visiting fans will pick up the extras). So you lose an average of 4000 single game seats. Between season and single game sales, if you are looking at an average drop of 10,000 seats x 7 games x average $50 per ticket, that's a revenue loss of $3.5MM. And assume an additional loss of $500K in parking, concessions, and donations, and you are looking at a $4MM annual revenue loss.

 

[RUJohnny99]

And when you want to re-up to 4 or 6 seats your rolling the dice to what is available, possibly getting much worse seats.

Meh. I'll just buy a bigger couch.

I'll take those odds.

Flood's buyout doesn't go down next year. If anything it goes up, since the payout is over a shorter time period.
$1.4 mm over 85 pay periods today is $16,470 biweekly.
$1.4 mm over 58 pay periods starting 12/1/16 is $24,137 biweekly.

So keeping him this year essentially locks him in for the whole contract.

 

[keav8447]

I'm sorry, but I believe it is true, especially for long time ticket holders.

No one who has spent a lot of money and years building up senority/priority points will stop buying their season tickets and lose all of that because of a coach coming back for another year.

If he comes back it will be for a year, a year in which he either does it or not.

No one will not renew over one year, and if they don't they are foolish, giving up all they have earned to start at zero all over again.

If Flood is back I am giving up my 5 tickets in 124. Yes, I have had them since 1995. Yes, I have substantial priority points.

Someone asked Zappa, 'why would you sit through the Shea years to give them up now?' For me, I always had hope- hope that someday Rutgers would make a commitment, hope that we would join a big conference, hope that we would be relevant in the larger scheme of things. All of that happened. My hope was realized. And it was great fun. Not just the winning- there were plenty of WTF losses and frustration, but we were competitive and it was fun.

But now, in my estimation, the opportunity is being squandered. The team is not competitive against decent teams and, for me at least, it is not very fun. And if you voice your frustration, some fans say STFU, get over yourself, you are just a fan. I don't know any other venue where an individual would spend thousands of dollars and if they were not satisfied with the product be told to shut up and take it. I don't like the fact that because I love Rutgers, my loyalty is being taken advantage of by assuming I will blindly pay for slop. Flood stays, I'm out.

And if you get to move down from the upper deck because I'm out- good for you. They are great seats. I hope you have as much fun in them as I did for many years.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

We will lose a boatload of season tickets if Flood is coach next year. I'll put it right where Shack does, about 5K, and I know my group - steady at 25 for 10 years now - will lose 4-8 tickets.

Nuts...

I really think 5000 is the MINIMUM....and its likely to be 7500-9000

We have 30000 season tickets sold this year...you got to look back at the trend.

We got to almost 30000 in 2009 when the stadium expanded after three years of built up demand and excitement. We raised prices...we hit the price point, and probably went to far...So what happened?

Season tickets dropped from almost 30K bottoming out in 2012 to 18K!!!

All while we were WINNING. We went 9-4, 4-8 and 9-4...

We got a bounce in 2013 due to the anticipation of the big ten...and then 2014 and 2015 when in big ten...back up to around 31K

We raised prices...and I think we hit the price point and exceeded it again this year.

We did not sell out Michigan State...and there were more empties this year for the mid level games than last...

This is critical..the "mid level fans"....are the ones who are taking us from 20K to 30K....and they are seeing the value of their tickets dropping as demand at the current price point is reached

Throw in significant inferior product...I fear that our core season ticket holders will all shed some extra seats in anticipation of less demand AND the "md level fans" will stay away

We have the price point issue right now compounded by a potential free fall in demand next year if Coach Flood is back

Unless we make a coaching change that energizes the fan base to keep on board the next couple of years...the ticket demand will drop...and the revenue drop will far exceed what we would owe out to the staff and assistants

A change needs to be made to stabilize the fan base right now....and there are so many concrete reasons why a change should be made outside of economics...but the economics make it a no brainer

 

[OldManRiver1]

No one is giving up their season tickets, and losing the priority points and senority that comes with consecutive years as a season ticket holder.

He's saying they are going to cut back on the number of season seats...where they still keep their PP.

I honestly hope they DO cut their season tickets down...it was probably these people that sold their tix to opposing fans on stubhub. I couldn't understand the amount of opposing fans deep in prime RU sections.

 

[Knight Shift]

Nuts...

I really think 5000 is the MINIMUM....and its likely to be 7500-9000

We have 30000 season tickets sold this year...you got to look back at the trend.

We got to almost 30000 in 2009 when the stadium expanded after three years of built up demand and excitement. We raised prices...we hit the price point, and probably went to far...So what happened?

Season tickets dropped from almost 30K bottoming out in 2012 to 18K!!!

All while we were WINNING. We went 9-4, 4-8 and 9-4...

We got a bounce in 2013 due to the anticipation of the big ten...and then 2014 and 2015 when in big ten...back up to around 31K

We raised prices...and I think we hit the price point and exceeded it again this year.

We did not sell out Michigan State...and there were more empties this year for the mid level games than last...

This is critical..the "mid level fans"....are the ones who are taking us from 20K to 30K....and they are seeing the value of their tickets dropping as demand at the current price point is reached

Throw in significant inferior product...I fear that our core season ticket holders will all shed some extra seats in anticipation of less demand AND the "md level fans" will stay away

We have the price point issue right now compounded by a potential free fall in demand next year if Coach Flood is back

Unless we make a coaching change that energizes the fan base to keep on board the next couple of years...the ticket demand will drop...and the revenue drop will far exceed what we would owe out to the staff and assistants

A change needs to be made to stabilize the fan base right now....and there are so many concrete reasons why a change should be made outside of economics...but the economics make it a no brainer

Shack, you are one of several posters on this board that I can tell puts a lot of thought and research into your posts. You should take what you wrote and e-mail it to your ticket representative, Julie Hermann, Bob Barchi, and others in Development.

 

[mildone_rivals]

We will not see a 30% (10,000) to 50% (15,000) decline in season tickets, not even close. The most we lose is 5,000, which is still unacceptable.

IMO, your estimates are far more likely. Although I wouldn't be surprised if the net loss is even less than that. Emotion-laced statements on a FB forum by very intense fans don't necessarily make for accurate projections (although lacking a crystal ball, who knows, things could turn out worse too).

Julie's office will have done projections on this stuff and it's surely part of the decision-making. Other important variables include: how much Big Ten money will roll in and when. The costs and timing of buyouts. The financial contractual obligations for a new coaching staff. They will also weigh the short-term costs of retaining the current staff against any longer-term plans for the football program. It could be that they are willing to absorb some short-term losses in order to avoid becoming locked into a new coach at this time because they have bigger plans for 2017 or 2018 or even 2019 (not to be depressing, but it's possible).

Thing is, there's risk if Flood stays; that much everybody agrees upon. But depending on what they're being told they can spend, there's at least as much risk in hiring a new staff too, which everybody wants to wishful-think away. Success in the Big Ten is not going to be easy. This is not the simple decision our overly emotional fans want it to be.

Personally, I think they should fire Flood now and spend $10M+ to hire the best possible coaching staff out there. There is risk in that too, but IMO, it's less risky and has a much larger potential ROI. And RU can spend that much if it decides it wants to do so. And if RU commits that much to the program, I suspect private funding will increase sharply in support of that.

I realize that's not likely, but I think it's the smartest thing RU can do, given our unique situation, to have a financially successful FB program in the Big Ten. There's a huge opportunity here for the university. I'd like to see RU quit playing games, take that opportunity and hit one out of the park.

 

[ruman]

I stopped coming in year 2 of Shea. I'm at that point again.

 

[mildone_rivals]

8081...business model yes, but 'successful' is debatable and most certainly not proven. Athletics aren't cheap and the administration needs to draw the line somewhere, independent of where Michigan's line is, for example.

You are completely wrong suggesting other model which funnels more assets toward football is a guaranteed win for the university as a whole. You have no idea.

What are our revenues compared to other schools ?
Our costs compared ?
Merger debt and bond rating ?

Barchi and the board know what the university can afford. You don't.

You are only considering the risk side of the equation and failing to allow for the possible reward. It's risk vs. reward. Only in this case, the ROI can be immediately and significantly improved simply by upping the spending. If the BOG/Barchi decide they want to do so, they can spend as much as is needed.

RU spent a lot of money on Schiano and went from a nobody to a Big Ten program which has a lot of rewards for the school that are not measured in the athletics budget. Now they need to spend a lot more and take advantage of the opportunity their initial investment bought them.

It doesn't have to happen this year. But it has to happen soon. IMO.

 

[mildone_rivals]

Some will leave. But I bet you won't. [winking]

 

[mildone_rivals]

It took a while, but the kid is finally smartening up. Next stop, his poor political understanding.

Ha. Now that I've seen how you can be logical and sane, I'll be turning you away from the dark side (rabid partisanship) and into an independent. Just a matter of time.

 

[Wild_Knight]

Mild...hardly. Please enlighten us about how according to you "ROI can be significantly improved " by spending increases but this time think before you type. Be specific. Show your facts and math, not conjecture.

Thanks.

 

[lighty]

I know people who got rid of their season tickets in great locations. I gave up my in the end zone. I have no doubt that there will be many to get rid of their tix if Flood returns. As others have pointed out, it's not like there is a waiting list. If my friends wanted to, they could get their great seats back. RU was after them all year to renew. Just as they were after me with my cheap seats.

 

[ru66]

meaningful loss will not happen and for those that stop coming because of flood and for "no" other reason your bitching should stop-you've been satisfied--like when you were 10 --you got even and showed them

 

[DHajekRC84]

No one's giving up BTN.

One end zone ticket is $305 including donation. For that $305 ticket I can keep all 32 of my priority points (a $3200 value) get priority access to Penn State & Michigan tickets & be towards the front of the line when a coaching change is made.

They just don't get it do they?

Been thru the $5 seats, free parking on Busch, and now even the sit (almost) wherever you damn well want years. Same folks who said we would sell out every B1G game and have a 5k list for season tix.

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[mildone_rivals]

Mild...hardly. Please enlighten us about how according to you "ROI can be significantly improved " by spending increases but this time think before you type. Be specific. Show your facts and math, not conjecture.

Thanks.

LOL. This entire thread is entirely about conjecture, oh fact-based brilliant one.

If we spend 10M on a new coaching staff, that has a great deal more potential to produce a staff that generates greater, more lasting excitement than spending half that much or less. I trust you can work out the math for yourself.

 

[sodakboy93]

The big thing for me is that while you might save some $$$ if you don't let Flood go this year, what is the long-term negative impact if Rutgers has another bad year. (something I think is very possible regardless of who the HC is in 2016)

Does that make it harder to get lapsed season ticket holders to come back? Or donors? Two straight bad years might give the perception that Rutgers is a doormat in the B1G, and then you're basically Indiana or Purdue.

Does it make the job even less appealing to top-tier coaching candidates, which means you end up like those bad NBA teams with tons of salary cap room and nobody who wants to play for them? (and unlike the NBA, there's less forward knowledge about how many "free agents" there might be and how many open spots might exist)

Does it make recruiting that much more difficult, if recruits (who aren't stupid) think that the HC is a potential lame duck?

IMO, the risks of inaction are probably greater than the risks of action.

 

[Wild_Knight]

Mild...ok I got it now. Now you admit you really don't have a clue about RUs financial picture.

For a second there seemed sure that increased spending will increase roi, but it was just a wild guess.

A+

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

If Flood is retaiNed for another year, does anyone actually think the situation will be different in a year? If you don't extend him to a four year deal, recruiting continues to slide as recruits have little assurance the guy recruiting him will be around all of their college years. That would make our hole even bigger for whoever eventually replaces Flood. Nobody still thinks this guy is a long term viable option. Well, maybe slyker bit that is about it on this board.

Ticket sales will drop for sure if there is no expectation of a competitive season. No incentive for an on the fence guy to buy a season ticket when there will be single game tickets available for everything except maybe the PSU game, where they will bring 15k fans or more. It is so obvious that the program needs a change at the top at this point.

You do not make money without spending money. Invest in a good coaching staff and have a good product on the field and the NJ fans will show state pride and become Rutgers fans. Play it cheap like we have to this point and watch the attendance and results continue to crumble.

 

[e5fdny]

Ron Jeremy was banned for coming to my defense when a moderator attacked me on Premium.

What thread on there and what moderator?

 

[ruhudsonfan]

Arguing wit each other about the future of season tickets is stupid. By definition, this board is full of lunatic crazies who will put up with most anything.

Is someone with 75 PP going to totally opt out of the program? No. But if you think they won't reduce donations above and beyond the minimums, you're nutso.

The second relevant part of the analysis is on the new season ticket holder side. Why would anyone come in now with this product? Any game can be bought on the open market. Parking passes are generally available on the open market.

The third cost is the opportunity cost associated with yet another year of lost B10 momentum. We're never going to have the tailwind we've had in the last 2 years again. The league set us up with the most attractive cross over opponents in an obvious effort to boost interest from the casual fan and to sell out home games. We blew it with this yo-yo on the sidelines.

You think you're talking your non RU affiliated coworker into an Illinois game next season? Howard? New Mexico?

HPSS is gonna have tumbleweeds rolling around the concourses next year, presuming Elmer is retained.

 

[sodakboy93]

No one's giving up BTN.

One end zone ticket is $305 including donation. For that $305 ticket I can keep all 32 of my priority points (a $3200 value) get priority access to Penn State & Michigan tickets & be towards the front of the line when a coaching change is made.

The long-term ticket holders aren't the issue. There's a core group that's going to stick around no matter what.

But for all of those who maybe have only had tickets for a year to two and don't have that kind of equity, I can see them making a value judgement that the money they're spending on the product isn't worth it. It happens all the time, and to think Rutgers is somehow immune to it is absurd.

 

[RUJohnny99]

What thread on there and what moderator?

http://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/th...t-the-can-keep-flood-to-bed-for-a-week.51959/

Thread was scrubbed.

Mod was a certain someone who has scotch as his avatar.

 

[Wild_Knight]

Hudson ... do you agree that buying out Flood and staff doesn't guarantee financial gains ? So many people here are convinced it would...without any facts to prove it.

We just don't know what the university finances are. I trust those that do know will make the best decisions they can, one way or the other.

 

[RUJohnny99]

The long-term ticket holders aren't the issue. There's a core group that's going to stick around no matter what.

But for all of those who maybe have only had tickets for a year to two and don't have that kind of equity, I can see them making a value judgement that the money they're spending on the product isn't worth it. It happens all the time, and to think Rutgers is somehow immune to it is absurd.

The season ticket holder base was 12,000 in 2006. That's the "core group" we are talking about. Does that amount cover the stadium debt?

 

[RUInsanityToo]

The risk of losing season ticket holders is that it is difficult to get them back. Once someone leaves they learn how to survive Saturdays without going to the games or they learn other means of finding tickets on an ever increasing secondary.market.

 

[RUsSKii]

There are several posters with their heads evidently in the sand.

Many posters on this board have all but guaranteed that they will drop at least a portion of their season tickets if Flood is retained next year. Most of us who post here are die-hards, who love Rutgers football enough to do so. Take a minute to think about this: if many of the most dedicated fans and long-time season ticketholders of Rutgers football are talking about not renewing their tickets, what exactly do you think will happen with casual, fair-weather, and/or apathetic fans who can just as easily spend their fall Saturdays doing something else, decide to tailgate only, and don't know or give a rat's *** about this board?

The ticket-buying fanbase will certainly be reduced next season if Flood is retained; the only question is how precipitously. It's sad that we are discussing the answer to that question, rather than how to grow a B1G team fanbase.

 

[straighttalkexpress]

If you give up the season tickets, you'll still end up buying single game tickets next year because it's going to be a good season regardless. Some real talent coming back

 

[lighty]

how many here would have thought it would be easy to get tickets in year three of playing in the Big Ten?

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Nuts...

I really think 5000 is the MINIMUM....and its likely to be 7500-9000

We have 30000 season tickets sold this year...you got to look back at the trend.

We got to almost 30000 in 2009 when the stadium expanded after three years of built up demand and excitement. We raised prices...we hit the price point, and probably went to far...So what happened?

Season tickets dropped from almost 30K bottoming out in 2012 to 18K!!!

All while we were WINNING. We went 9-4, 4-8 and 9-4...

We got a bounce in 2013 due to the anticipation of the big ten...and then 2014 and 2015 when in big ten...back up to around 31K

We raised prices...and I think we hit the price point and exceeded it again this year.

We did not sell out Michigan State...and there were more empties this year for the mid level games than last...

This is critical..the "mid level fans"....are the ones who are taking us from 20K to 30K....and they are seeing the value of their tickets dropping as demand at the current price point is reached

Throw in significant inferior product...I fear that our core season ticket holders will all shed some extra seats in anticipation of less demand AND the "md level fans" will stay away

We have the price point issue right now compounded by a potential free fall in demand next year if Coach Flood is back

Unless we make a coaching change that energizes the fan base to keep on board the next couple of years...the ticket demand will drop...and the revenue drop will far exceed what we would owe out to the staff and assistants

A change needs to be made to stabilize the fan base right now....and there are so many concrete reasons why a change should be made outside of economics...but the economics make it a no brainer

Finishing the second part of my thought...

-a 7500 ticket decrease in season tickets....ASSUMING we don't change prices...for 7 games is close to $ 3million in lost TICKET revenue....lets be fair and assume, of those 52500 seats (7500 x 7)...we sell HALF of them (many to the bigger games) at full price...so that is $1.5 million in lost revenue.
-Those 26000 unsold tickets will cause a loss of $500,000 in revenue in concessions and parking (average revenue produced per person for concessions and parking is $20)
-So...we are at $2 million in lost revenues...plus whatever the donations decrease, both voluntary and required donations
-and this DOES not count any lost revenue in the Audi Club seats...

I think we are looking at $2.5 million revenue loss in YEAR ONE

Lord knows the total impact if we allow a 4-6 year down cycle here...instead of 2-3 years if we keep the current coach and let the program fall off more by allowing him to coach another year...

To me, right now, the biggest thing is that we KNOW the revenues are coming...and while we are trying to contain costs...we don't want to do something that will knock our "fan" revenues down as our "marketing and television" revenues rise...that will make us consistently behind in our effort to break even. Spending money on COACHES at ALL SPORTS...is the one things we can spend SOME more money on (as opposed to needing $250-$500 million in total athletic department facilities) to help the program get going while we build a fan base that will actually donate more and help with the facility development and scholarship endowment while we wait for a full big ten share

The one thing we need to be good at with finite resources for facilities that we can afford with just a moderate amount of more spending is TOP NOTCH coaches at all levels.

Can't be cheap on the coaching at this point....need to find someone with a vision to grow with us and reward them later with more program support in the facilties...

 

[RC1991]

We are going to be relocating from NJ before next season and I have 5 season tickets in Section 106 (and about 70 PP) and have had them for about 10 years since we moved back to NJ in '04. I don't think we will be able to make it back for many games and have been trying to decide if we may keep 2 tickets. But if Flood returns I will just discontinue them all and come back for a game here and there when a change is eventually made. I do think if Flood is back there will be a definite drop off in season tix.

 

[NickKnight 1]

If you give up the season tickets, you'll still end up buying single game tickets next year because it's going to be a good season regardless. Some real talent coming back

Yes, but then will he sit the talent, and play the guy he thinks is learning on his back.:angry:

 

[ArminRU]

I'll keep my 1 stinking season ticket just so I can go to the game and boo Flood every chance I can get.

I won't be donating a dime though, that's for sure.

 

[Scarlet_Scourge]

Here are the prices, you do the math:

 

[mildone_rivals]

Mild...ok I got it now. Now you admit you really don't have a clue about RUs financial picture.

For a second there seemed sure that increased spending will increase roi, but it was just a wild guess.

A+

RU's projected budget for 2015-2016 is 3.78B (link). Hiring a $10M coach is much more likely to result in sellouts and merchandise sales than spending half that much. Finding an extra $5M in a budget of 3.78B is always doable, particularly if that extra $5M can be projected to sell an extra $5M in tickets and merchandise.

You want to tell me which part you disagree with? Or do you just want to stick with douchebaggery?

 

[AreYouNUTS]

If you give up the season tickets, you'll still end up buying single game tickets next year because it's going to be a good season regardless. Some real talent coming back

Hahahahaha!!! You think our O is bad this year wait until next season!! D?? Gonna be even weaker at LB and DB's will still be very weak. Schedule? Tougher.