Bart Torvik’s ACCT prediction

[Quavarius]

Gives Duke a 25.2% chance of winning the title. UVA is at 47.9% and UNCheat is at 15.4%

 

[Quavarius]

We started at 24.8% and have now moved to 25.2%

 

[Quavarius]

KenPom also has similar numbers:

 

[OldasdirtDevil]

We started at 24.8% and have now moved to 25.2%

It's going to go substantially higher.

OFC

 

[pisgah101]

It's going to go substantially higher.

OFC

I was wondering if Z was factored

 

[OldasdirtDevil]

I was wondering if Z was factored

I don't know, Pisgah. But out of sight, out of mind. I think people may be forgetting just how incredible Zion is until they see him back in action on the floor. And of course, they could be waiting to see if Zion is back to his 'old' self (which I have no doubt he will be).
If we win the ACCT, I believe Vegas will have Duke as the favorite to win the chip.

OFC

 

[Quavarius]

I was wondering if Z was factored

I don’t think so since nothing has been officially stated.

 

[chov1125]

When looking at odds/percentages you have to take into account that the ACC is a 3 headed monster. Our path is similar to UNC, which is different than Virginia. Virginia likely only needs to go through V-Tech to get to the finals. We will likely have to go through UNC. When you establish odds you have to factor in the likelihood winning 2 tough games as compared to 1. Hence why Virginia is the overwhelming favorite.

 

[Quavarius]

When looking at odds/percentages you have to take into account that the ACC is a 3 headed monster. Our path is similar to UNC, which is different than Virginia. Virginia likely only needs to go through V-Tech to get to the finals. We will likely have to go through UNC. When you establish odds you have to factor in the likelihood winning 2 tough games as compared to 1. Hence why Virginia is the overwhelming favorite.

Yes, the one seed has the easier path. But the one seed doesn’t always win it.

 

[dukiejay]

I think they're factoring it based on 31 games played to date. It's analytics. If they factored it off the first 25 games then Duke would be the favorite.

If we win the ACCT, I believe Vegas will have Duke as the favorite to win the chip.

Duke is already the favorite, with UVA and Gonzaga coming in next.

 

[pisgah101]

I think they're factoring it based on 31 games played to date. It's analytics. If they factored it off the first 25 games then Duke would be the favorite.



Duke is already the favorite, with UVA and Gonzaga coming in next.

Makes the most sense

 

[chov1125]

It explains why Duke is the favorite to win it all and yet not the favorite to win the ACCT. A simple hypothetical (not going to happen, for hypothetical purposes only), Duke lands the 1 seed. In their region they also have Kentucky, Michigan, Texas Tech and Houston. Virginia gets a 1 seed. In their region is Maryland, St John's, Syracuse and 12 other teams that have no chance of winning it all. Duke would no longer be the favorite. Once the likely match-ups are known and one team has a clear advantage over another, the odds will change. Doesn't mean that Vegas believes that Virginia is better, just that they are more likely to win it all.