Big Ten scheduling

[WestCoastWildcat]

Can someone comment on the current status of how Big Ten schedules are constructed these days? I know some matches are based on rivalry like NU/IL, OSU/Mich. It seems this year that Wisconsin & Penn State have relatively easy Big Ten schedules. Both teams do not play Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon or Michigan while we play those top teams except for Michigan.

 

[NJCat]

It is going to get more complicated in 2027 when they move the season up one week, starting the weekend before Labor Day weekend. Teams will have 2 idle weeks rather than one. Teams will need to scramble their schedules to avoid having an early off week.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7618631/2026/09/22/college-football-2027-season-start-scheduling/

 

[NU'06er]

Can't speak to the timing of which games end up landing when, but with respect to the rotation of who plays who in any given season, I think they did an impressive job of balancing various considerations ranging from travel to protected rivalries. I'd be reasonably happy if the next 5-year cylce looked similar to the current 5-year cycle again, to be honest: https://bigten.org/fb/article/blt39fc5a9dd81251cf/ .

We may have a rough road slate this year with the Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State games, but we'll get our shot at a weaker slate next year with 5 B1G home games (and 2 of the "road" games at the relatively less imposing fortresses of UCLA and Rutgers). We still get Ohio State in Evanston next year, but it's a pretty manageable schedule overall with no Michigan, Oregon, Indiana, USC, Iowa, or Penn State...

(Also, too soon to worry about '27 when '26 is busy looking better than we could have hoped!)

 

[Sheffielder]

It is going to get more complicated in 2027 when they move the season up one week, starting the weekend before Labor Day weekend. Teams will have 2 idle weeks rather than one. Teams will need to scramble their schedules to avoid having an early off week.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7618631/2026/09/22/college-football-2027-season-start-scheduling/

It's funny to me how college football programs went from scheduling OOC games 8-10 years out because it took soooooo much coordination to now just looking at who doesn't have a fully dance card by November.

 

[Darren72]

The Big Ten announced the full 2024–2028 conference opponent lists on October 5, 2023. They said that they looked to "balance of historic competitiveness and recent competitive trends, including home/away balance of traditionally competitive schools" as one of three considerations, alongside travel and postseason access. In term of implementing this, teams were split into six groups of three, but they didn't identify which teams were in which tier.

Remember, when they made the schedule, Indiana was a historically poor team. Their first recent year of success was 2024.

So to look into this, I had Claude rank teams by the average of their F+ score in 2022 and 2023. Here’s what that looks like:

Team strength ratings (avg 2022–23 F+):

Team	Rating		Team	Rating
Michigan	2.365		Iowa	0.630
Ohio State	2.110		Minnesota	0.570
Oregon	1.815		Illinois	0.475
Penn State	1.740		Purdue	0.035
Washington	1.315		Nebraska	-0.035
USC	0.980		Rutgers	-0.130
Maryland	0.855		Michigan State	-0.235
UCLA	0.775		Northwestern	-0.260
Wisconsin	0.665		Indiana	-0.410

What do these numbers mean? A zero is the average FBS team. A 1.0 means one standard deviation better than average. Michigan is a 2.3 and is one of the top teams in the country.

I’m not saying that the Big 10 used these numbers — I have no idea how they tiered teams — but this gives you a sense of who was good recently when they set the schedule.

Based on these ratings, here is the average strength of schedule for each team in 2024-2028 based on opponents strength in 2022-2023:

Average opponent strength each team faces, 2024–28 (higher = tougher):

Team	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	5-yr avg	Year-to-year spread
Michigan State	.86	.83	.78	.83	1.05	.869 (toughest)	.28
USC	.90	.62	.97	.78	.76	.805	.35
Rutgers	.60	1.06	.63	.72	1.00	.801	.46
Northwestern	.89	.97	.73	.64	.69	.786	.32
Washington	.83	1.00	.57	.59	.93	.783	.43
Indiana	.77	.75	.77	.71	.82	.766	.11
UCLA	.72	.67	.84	.73	.78	.747	.16
Ohio State	.63	.87	.71	.57	.96	.747	.39
Nebraska	.57	.82	.71	.75	.83	.738	.26
Oregon	.93	.57	.83	.80	.55	.736	.38
Wisconsin	.59	1.08	.58	.52	.90	.734	.57
Minnesota	.93	.51	.76	.73	.72	.730	.42
Michigan	.71	.60	.76	.75	.60	.686	.16
Penn State	.86	.47	.71	.76	.61	.685	.39
Purdue	.65	.78	.74	.79	.38	.666	.41
Iowa	.64	.55	.80	.84	.45	.658	.39
Maryland	.52	.53	.74	.74	.68	.642	.22
Illinois	.65	.57	.63	.72	.54	.623 (easiest)	.18

Michigan State, USC, Rutgers, Northwestern, and Washington sit at the tough end across all 5 years; Illinois, Maryland, Iowa, and Purdue sit at the easy end across all 5 years.

But the size of that persistent gap (around 0.25) between those with easier and harder schedule is small. Why do I say that? Because it is small relative to the year to year differences a team faces. So I wouldn't worry that ex ante we had an unfair schedule draw.

 

[WestCoastWildcat]

AI offered this overview of BT scheduling. I wasn’t familiar with the Flex Protecf concept. I think there should be consistency in the number of protected rivalries, maybe 2 per team.

Overview

The Big Ten models its football schedules using the Flex Protect XVIII / Flex Protect Plus scheduling framework, which eliminates traditional divisions and features a blend of protected annual rivalries and rotating opponents. [1, 2]

Core Mechanics of the Model

• 9-Game Conference Slate: Every member institution plays a nine-game intraconference schedule each season.
• No Divisions: The conference operates as a single unified 18-team standings pool, with the top two teams advancing to the Big Ten Football Championship Game.
• Home-and-Away Rotations: Teams play every other conference opponent at least twice—once at home and once away—within a defined cycle, ensuring rotating opponents do not appear more than three times in a five-year period.
• Protected Rivalries: Specific historic, geographic, and trophy matchups are preserved annually, though the number of protected games varies per school (ranging from zero to three)