Bowl Game Analysis

[missouridawg]

After reading some of the comments below Pat Forde's article, I compiled this list to see who our SEC bowl game opponents really were.

So what I did was take the conference ranking for each team and compare them. For instance, Alabama was #1 in the SEC and will play Texas, the #1 in the Big 12. And if the Big 12 was equal to the SEC, you'd like to think that our #5 would beat there #7... and our #8 would lose to their #3... and so on and so forth.

SEC Rank vs. Other Conference Rank
1 Bama vs. 1 - Big 12
2 Florida (win) vs. 1 - Big East
3 LSU (loss) vs. 3 - Big 10
4 OM (win) vs. 2 - Big 12
5 UGA (win) vs. 8 - Big 12
6 Tenn (loss) vs. 2 - ACC
7 Ark (win) vs. 1 - C-USA
8 Auburn (win) vs. 5 - Big 10
9 UK vs. 3 - ACC
10 USC vs. 5 - Big East

So the way I see this, is that the SEC won every matchup it was supposed to, so far (UGA) and then won 4 others that it shouldn't have (FLA, OM, AUB). And I"m not including ARK in that because they played a mid-major conference winner, which isn't a very fair comparison.

So now, 3 of the SEC's 4 losses that did happen, were supposed to happen (UK, TENN, USC) and the fourth loss was #3 LSU to #3 Penn State... but I think it's a foregone conclusion that on any other field in the nation, LSU would more than likely win that game. I know both teams have to play on the same field and deal with the same elements... but the muddy field played into Penn States favor, in my opinion.

On the flip side of things, let's look at some different bowl scenarios, just for fun. Let's take the SEC's upper to mid level teams (LSU, OM, UGA) and pair them up with lower level Big 12, Big 10, ACC, and Big East teams (kind of like what happened with UK, USC, and Tenn in their REAL bowl games.

First let's pair SEC #3 agains the #6 team from each conference - Mizzou, Michigan State, UNC, USF. Does LSU lose any of those games?

SEC #4 OM against #7 teams from each conference - K-State, Minnesota, Florida State, L'Ville. I could see Fla State pulling this one out, but the other 3 have no chance.

SEC #5 UGA against #8 from each conference - A+M, Purdue (not eligible), WF (not eligible), Syracuse (not eligible). So the only game that could've occurred was A+M vs UGA and we all saw how that went.

I'm not even going to attempt to pair up Tenn, Ark, Auburn, Uk, or Usc to the other conferences, because there's not a team in any other conferences below the #7 spot that would give any of them a game.

My point from this, is that I still feel the SEC is the dominate conference and it's really not very close. If there was an ideal system that would let the conferences pair up the teams based on the standings, like I have done, I think the SEC would have a winning record against EVERY other major conference - PAC 10 and MWC included.

We all know this year that the SEC was top heavy (BAMA, FLA)... and that you could honestly shake up #3-#11 and still put a decent football team on the field. What I think people are really underestimating, is how good those #3 - #11 teams actually are, compared with everyone elses #3 #11. I honestly think that our #10 or #11 team could've placed 4th or 5th in almost every major conference in America this year.

Also, to clarify the rankings, I did it by overall record, then conference record, and if both of those were the same, I tried to use head-to-head (but I'm not perfect).

 

[rebelrouseri]

an SEC no. 4 v. a big 12 no. 2 type scenario, etc. People in other conferences can take some solace in the fact that they beat an SEC team and we get better bowls and more money for the conference as a whole. I am curious to see what the conference payouts will be this year. SEC was pretty far ahead prior to the ESPN deal.

 

[Agentdog]

I had this same conversation with my BigT1E1N neighbor. He commented on the SEC's bowl record. I countered with the facts you mentioned. That the SEC is usually paired against an opponent that is ranked higher within their conference.

 

[RebelBruiser]

I had this same conversation with my BigT1E1N neighbor. He commented on the SEC's bowl record. I countered with the facts you mentioned. That the SEC is usually paired against an opponent that is ranked higher within their conference.

And it will get worse next year when we add the Gator. The Gator, Cotton, Outback, and Cap One are 4 of the Top 5 non-BCS bowls traditionally. I include the Holiday Bowl as well with the Peach probably right behind those 5.

So, 5 out of the top 6 non-BCS bowl games will have SEC tie ins. The opponents in many of those games will be some of the top remaining opponents from other conferences. If the BCS invites 2 SEC teams, like it will most years, you'll have the No. 5 and No. 6 team from the SEC matching up yearly with No. 2 or No. 3 teams from other major conferences.

It's the flip side of being the best conference with the most support. We get all the best bowl tie ins, but we get the toughest bowl match ups. In other words, don't expect any bowl challenge cups ever.

That'll almost always go to a conference like the MWC that's under-respected by the bowl tie ins.

 

[shaschboy]

is that 10 out of the 12 teams went bowling. That's an 83% chance of going to some bowl game every year and we didn't. MSU and Vandy got to visit Bulldog and Commodore Lanes, yet again.

That really puts it in perspective and makes me hang my head low, even after the Egg Bowl win.
Here's looking to the future!

 

[Mr Meoff]

but the muddy field played into Penn States favor, in my opinion.

You have to think both Penn State and Northwestern would've had trouble on dry fields. Auburn and LSU receivers, linebackers, etc. never were able to utilize what would have been huge speed advantages.

I'm not saying it's not fair -- it actually probably made the games closer and more interesting -- just that I see very different outcomes on dry tracks.

 

[Sutterkane]

I had this same conversation with my BigT1E1N neighbor. He commented on the SEC's bowl record. I countered with the facts you mentioned. That the SEC is usually paired against an opponent that is ranked higher within their conference.

And it will get worse next year when we add the Gator. The Gator, Cotton, Outback, and Cap One are 4 of the Top 5 non-BCS bowls traditionally. I include the Holiday Bowl as well with the Peach probably right behind those 5.

So, 5 out of the top 6 non-BCS bowl games will have SEC tie ins. The opponents in many of those games will be some of the top remaining opponents from other conferences. If the BCS invites 2 SEC teams, like it will most years, you'll have the No. 5 and No. 6 team from the SEC matching up yearly with No. 2 or No. 3 teams from other major conferences.

It's the flip side of being the best conference with the most support. We get all the best bowl tie ins, but we get the toughest bowl match ups. In other words, don't expect any bowl challenge cups ever.

That'll almost always go to a conference like the MWC that's under-respected by the bowl tie ins.

the sec went 7-2 in 2007-08 in bowl games. It was easily the best record unless you want to say the WAC had a better % at like 1-0 or 2-0.

 

[SLUdog]

than its opponent in the bowl games.

 

[SLUdog]

to play for non-conference games. Here's my list: Memphis, Alcorn, UAB, UL-Monroe. Mid-level c-usa teams should be the best teams we play.

 

[rebelrouseri]

.

 

[RebelBruiser]

I had this same conversation with my BigT1E1N neighbor. He commented on the SEC's bowl record. I countered with the facts you mentioned. That the SEC is
usually paired against an opponent that is ranked higher within their conference.

And it will get worse next year when we add the Gator. The Gator, Cotton, Outback, and Cap One are 4 of the Top 5 non-BCS bowls traditionally. I include the
Holiday Bowl as well with the Peach probably right behind those 5.

So, 5 out of the top 6 non-BCS bowl games will have SEC tie ins. The opponents in many of those games will be some of the top remaining opponents from other
conferences. If the BCS invites 2 SEC teams, like it will most years, you'll have the No. 5 and No. 6 team from the SEC matching up yearly with No. 2 or
No. 3 teams from other major conferences.

It's the flip side of being the best conference with the most support. We get all the best bowl tie ins, but we get the toughest bowl match ups. In other
words, don't expect any bowl challenge cups ever.

That'll almost always go to a conference like the MWC that's under-respected by the bowl tie ins.

the sec went 7-2 in 2007-08 in bowl games. It was easily the best record unless you want to say the WAC had a better % at like 1-0 or 2-0.

Actually, that year, the MWC won the bowl challenge cup with a 4-1 record, but my point is that when the SEC does have a really good bowl year like it did in 2007-08, it's even more impressive given the competition and the number of bowls where our team is matched up with a team that's higher in the pecking order for another conference.

And yes, adding the Gator will make it even tougher.

 

[Todd4State]

based upon your analysis, it would seem that Alabama should beat Texas. Or at least that's what I read into it.

We'll see if I can read between the lines.