Bracketology Northwestern #6 on the bubble

torque-cat

Redshirt
Dec 11, 2018
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10 Big Ten teams in the field, highest of any conference, due to great non-conference season to date. This dramatically helps NU because we have so many opportunities at top 50 wins--most of the big ten is in it. Big Ten is good, but probably over-performed in the non-con which is ideal. A 500 record in the big ten should have a very good chance at a bid.
 
Aug 13, 2002
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10 Big Ten teams in the field, highest of any conference, due to great non-conference season to date. This dramatically helps NU because we have so many opportunities at top 50 wins--most of the big ten is in it. Big Ten is good, but probably over-performed in the non-con which is ideal. A 500 record in the big ten should have a very good chance at a bid.
All things considered that's an excellent place for us to be at the moment, especially given our non-conference slate and our current record in the Big Ten.

I think it's an accurate reflection of the teams potential based on results to date. The strength of the conference is a big challenge and a big help, especially considering the extra two games.
 

torque-cat

Redshirt
Dec 11, 2018
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This is the most talented starting 5 and roster I've seen in the 25 yrs I've followed NU. Size, length, athleticism and skill are clear. But most of our roster has never played together before (3 frosh and 2 transfers in 9 man rotation) and guys are figuring out their roles and our identity. Kopp and Nance are legit 4 stars and would have a lot more opportunity to develop on many NU rosters, but this year CC knows we have a shot at tourney so he's prioritizing winning now with the battle-tested veterans. Law and Pardon are two of my favorite NU players ever--hard-working, humble and exactly the kind of seniors that a team will run through walls for.
 

Fitz51

Senior
Oct 21, 2008
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I’d be a lot more OK with it if NU were 2-0 (or, heck, 1-1) in the Big Ten rather than 0-2. But, can’t think about what if.

Yeah, we can look at how neither of those is a bad loss, but almost any loss in conference this year isn’t a bad one. Need to split games that come down to a basket.
 

ricko6543211

Junior
Nov 15, 2006
4,222
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10 Big Ten teams in the field, highest of any conference, due to great non-conference season to date. This dramatically helps NU because we have so many opportunities at top 50 wins--most of the big ten is in it. Big Ten is good, but probably over-performed in the non-con which is ideal. A 500 record in the big ten should have a very good chance at a bid.
Okay, it’s waaay too early to be worrying about bracketology! At least give it until January when conference play resumes.

On a tangentially related note though, does anyone else think it’s silly that Mich is only #5? They have multiple great wins, yet Duke is at #2 because #hype #blowouts and #lotterypicks. Michigan and UVa should be 2 and 3, both are undefeated against tough schedules. Duke Tenn Zags can be 4-5-6. Whatever, polls don’t matter anyways.
 

Pukecat

Redshirt
Sep 30, 2018
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Okay, it’s waaay too early to be worrying about bracketology! At least give it until January when conference play resumes.

On a tangentially related note though, does anyone else think it’s silly that Mich is only #5? They have multiple great wins, yet Duke is at #2 because #hype #blowouts and #lotterypicks. Michigan and UVa should be 2 and 3, both are undefeated against tough schedules. Duke Tenn Zags can be 4-5-6. Whatever, polls don’t matter anyways.

Michigan yeah but we know UVa will crumble in the spring as always. It will be surprising only if they don’t.
 

freewillie07

Sophomore
Aug 22, 2017
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Saving that for the end of the year?

Ha, pretty much!

But it's a long conference season, and, in theory, "luck" will even out and NU will win its share of close contests. Thinking about "what if" so soon will just lead to bad basketball and guys trying to do too much.

Some teams (usually with a lot of young players) don't "know how to win" and luck will not even out. Not to bring up bad memories, but NU's 10-game losing streak in 2014-15 comes to mind. This team doesn't feel at all the same as that one. I expect this team to be competitive on most nights, and when the team has an average to above-average shooting night, will win a good number of games.
 

ricko6543211

Junior
Nov 15, 2006
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Michigan yeah but we know UVa will crumble in the spring as always. It will be surprising only if they don’t.
I tend to think that’s mostly random (there are reasonable arguments both ways given their unique style of play, but I would point to the Kaminsky Dekker Wisconsin team as a key example for how that style can still flourish in the postseason).... but regardless if you look at what they’ve done this year and their list of quality wins, UVa should be ranked higher IMO. Polls are not supposed to be predictive (I don’t think?) they are supposed to describe which teams have the best resumes to date.

Sagarin or Ken Pom etc type ratings are the more predictive measures. But hype and margin of victory sometimes spills into the thinking of pollsters.
 
Sep 15, 2006
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Well, might be an 0-3 start after a while as Michigan State is next on the schedule — nothing like drawing three "patsies" to open the league. Looking over the schedule, it's hard to see many easy ones this season.
 

Pukecat

Redshirt
Sep 30, 2018
615
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I tend to think that’s mostly random (there are reasonable arguments both ways given their unique style of play, but I would point to the Kaminsky Dekker Wisconsin team as a key example for how that style can still flourish in the postseason).... but regardless if you look at what they’ve done this year and their list of quality wins, UVa should be ranked higher IMO. Polls are not supposed to be predictive (I don’t think?) they are supposed to describe which teams have the best resumes to date.

Sagarin or Ken Pom etc type ratings are the more predictive measures. But hype and margin of victory sometimes spills into the thinking of pollsters.

Sure but Dekker and Kaminsky were first round picks in the NBA.
 

ricko6543211

Junior
Nov 15, 2006
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Sure but Dekker and Kaminsky were first round picks in the NBA.
Virginia has had multiple first round picks in recent years that are currently on NBA rosters and DeAndre Hunter on their current roster should also be a lottery pick (prob in the 10-15 range).
 

Pukecat

Redshirt
Sep 30, 2018
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Virginia has had multiple first round picks in recent years that are currently on NBA rosters and DeAndre Hunter on their current roster should also be a lottery pick (prob in the 10-15 range).

Did they have two 1st round picks in the same starting lineup like that? Virginia is pretty crappy. Better than NU but non-Duke, non-UNC ACC teams are always inflated by the media.
 

wocka

Junior
Oct 4, 2018
1,000
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Malcolm Brogdon won ROY a few years ago, albeit in a pretty weak rookie class.
 

xxxbobxxx

Sophomore
Mar 12, 2005
10,806
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Yeah, we can look at how neither of those is a bad loss, but almost any loss in conference this year isn’t a bad one. Need to split games that come down to a basket.

If anyone expected a win in either game before the season began, they are lying or a hopeless homer (cue mike). I think those games provided much hope that this season could be better than expected.
 

mikewebb68

Senior
Oct 24, 2009
9,811
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If anyone expected a win in either game before the season began, they are lying or a hopeless homer (cue mike). I think those games provided much hope that this season could be better than expected.

Actually I expected us to lose both of those games rather handily. Guessing you have me confused with Wrassler?
 

ricko6543211

Junior
Nov 15, 2006
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Did they have two 1st round picks in the same starting lineup like that? Virginia is pretty crappy. Better than NU but non-Duke, non-UNC ACC teams are always inflated by the media.
I guess Brogdon was just outside the first round, but he, Justin Anderson and Joe Harris were all on the same team. All current NBA players. I’m not sure what your point is here... that the Kaminsky Dekker Badgers had a meaningful talent gap over the best UVa teams? If so, I guess I just fundamentally disagree. And I also disagree with the assertion that that a slow tempo, defense oriented team can’t succeed in the tournament. The margin for error is slim, but that is true for any team in a single elimination 64-team tournament. Now one could argue that specific Badgers team also had one of the best (most efficient) offenses in the country despite their slow tempo... but I don’t know if you’ve seen Virginia play, whoops in a strange change so do they this year!

UVa is not the most talented team, but they are still one of the best 5 teams in the country IMO.