<div class="scrolling"> <div> <div> Here's the sixth part of my thoughts regarding how I think the bracket will work. Since this is tournament week, I'll be posting daily updates.
Yesterday's thoughts can be found here.
March 2's thoughts <font color="#800000">are here</font>.
(x - conference leader; z - conference champion & winner of NCAA tournament berth)
1-seed
xTennessee
xUCLA
xMemphis
xNorth Carolina
2-seed
xGeorgetown
Duke
xTexas
Kansas
Texas's win yesterday means they're the 1-seed in the Big 12 tournament.
3-seed
xXavier
Louisville
xWisconsin
Notre Dame
By RPI, the Irish should be a 5-seed, but they've performed well in the Big East. Their conference performance is why they've got a 3-seed. I'm not happy with them here, but that's how it worked out. I'm more comfortable with the Irish here than any of the 4-seeds.
4-seed
Purdue
Vanderbilt
Stanford
Connecticut
Connecticut moves up to the 4-seed.
5-seed
Michigan State
zDrake
Indiana
xButler
Indiana moves down to the 5-seed. Drake won the MVC tournament and earns an automatic bid to the tournament.
6-seed
xBrigham Young
Washington State
xGonzaga
Clemson
I don't like Clemson at the 6-seed and will likely move them up to a 5-seed as soon as one of the three teams other than Drake at the 5-seed spot loses a tournament game.
7-seed
Marquette
xSouth Alabama
Mississippi State
Pittsburgh
8-seed
UNLV
Southern California
xKent State
Oklahoma
St. Mary's loss to San Diego means the Gaels fall. Oklahoma moves up because they have the best SOS and RPI of the 9-seeds.
9-seed
West Virginia
Miami, FL
Baylor
Kansas State
The Bears and Wildcats move up to the 9-seed.
10-seed
St. Mary's
Illinois State
Kentucky
Arkansas
Illinois State falls to the 10-seed after their loss to Drake in the MVC finals. St. Mary's also falls to the 10-seed after their loss in the WCC semifinals and at San Diego and are hoping Gonzaga defeats the Toreros. With all the talk about the two bad losses Kentucky has, San Diego has moved up to #97 in the RPI-- meaning the Wildcats at the moment only have one bad loss this season.
11-seed
Temple
Massachusetts
Syracuse
xDavidson
Virginia Commonwealth's loss to William & Mary knocks the Rams out of the tournament. Davidson moves up to the 11-seed.
12-seed
Texas A&M
Arizona
Ohio State
New Mexico
New Mexico moves up to the 12-seed.
13-seed
xStephen F. Austin
xOral Roberts
xGeorge Mason
Virginia Tech
George Mason enters the bracket as the remaining top-rated team in the Colonial. Yes, the Hokies lost at Clemson, but they're one of four teams with a conference record over .500 in the ACC-- the number 1 RPI conference.
14-seed
zCornell
xUC Santa Barbara
xUtah State
zBelmont
15-seed
xSiena
zAustin Peay
xMaryland-Baltimore County
xAmerican
16-seed
xPortland State
xMorgan State
zWinthrop
Play-in
xSacred Heart
xAlabama State
With Robert Morris's loss to Mt. St. Mary's, Sacred Heart enters the tournament as the highest remaining conference leader in the Northeast Conference. Sacred Heart will face Alabama State.
In the Bracket
George Mason
Sacred Heart
Out of the Bracket
Robert Morris
Virginia Commonwealth
Last Four In:
Texas A&M
Ohio State
New Mexico
Virginia Tech
I decided to go with two schools that were in the upper half of the top two power conferences in the nation: Texas A&M and Virginia Tech. Ohio State was deserving of some notice after their win over Purdue. New Mexico got a must-win game against UNLV.
Last Four Out:
St. Joseph's
Western Kentucky
UAB
Mississippi
The Hawks' losing 3 of 4 hurt. Western Kentucky's best chance to make the dance is to win the Sun Belt tournament. Mississippi is making a run, but the five bad losses hurt them. UAB is in a similar situation to the Rebels.
Next Four Out:
Maryland
Florida
Virginia Commonwealth
Oregon
Maryland needed to win at Virginia. Florida continues to struggle. Virginia Commonwealth needed to win the Colonial tournament. If history is any past indication, their RPI is too low to be considered for an at-large berth. Oregon finished 9-9 in the Pac-10 and making a decent case for a bid. </div> </div> </div>
Edit to take into account Robert Morris's loss yesterday.
Yesterday's thoughts can be found here.
March 2's thoughts <font color="#800000">are here</font>.
(x - conference leader; z - conference champion & winner of NCAA tournament berth)
1-seed
xTennessee
xUCLA
xMemphis
xNorth Carolina
2-seed
xGeorgetown
Duke
xTexas
Kansas
Texas's win yesterday means they're the 1-seed in the Big 12 tournament.
3-seed
xXavier
Louisville
xWisconsin
Notre Dame
By RPI, the Irish should be a 5-seed, but they've performed well in the Big East. Their conference performance is why they've got a 3-seed. I'm not happy with them here, but that's how it worked out. I'm more comfortable with the Irish here than any of the 4-seeds.
4-seed
Purdue
Vanderbilt
Stanford
Connecticut
Connecticut moves up to the 4-seed.
5-seed
Michigan State
zDrake
Indiana
xButler
Indiana moves down to the 5-seed. Drake won the MVC tournament and earns an automatic bid to the tournament.
6-seed
xBrigham Young
Washington State
xGonzaga
Clemson
I don't like Clemson at the 6-seed and will likely move them up to a 5-seed as soon as one of the three teams other than Drake at the 5-seed spot loses a tournament game.
7-seed
Marquette
xSouth Alabama
Mississippi State
Pittsburgh
8-seed
UNLV
Southern California
xKent State
Oklahoma
St. Mary's loss to San Diego means the Gaels fall. Oklahoma moves up because they have the best SOS and RPI of the 9-seeds.
9-seed
West Virginia
Miami, FL
Baylor
Kansas State
The Bears and Wildcats move up to the 9-seed.
10-seed
St. Mary's
Illinois State
Kentucky
Arkansas
Illinois State falls to the 10-seed after their loss to Drake in the MVC finals. St. Mary's also falls to the 10-seed after their loss in the WCC semifinals and at San Diego and are hoping Gonzaga defeats the Toreros. With all the talk about the two bad losses Kentucky has, San Diego has moved up to #97 in the RPI-- meaning the Wildcats at the moment only have one bad loss this season.
11-seed
Temple
Massachusetts
Syracuse
xDavidson
Virginia Commonwealth's loss to William & Mary knocks the Rams out of the tournament. Davidson moves up to the 11-seed.
12-seed
Texas A&M
Arizona
Ohio State
New Mexico
New Mexico moves up to the 12-seed.
13-seed
xStephen F. Austin
xOral Roberts
xGeorge Mason
Virginia Tech
George Mason enters the bracket as the remaining top-rated team in the Colonial. Yes, the Hokies lost at Clemson, but they're one of four teams with a conference record over .500 in the ACC-- the number 1 RPI conference.
14-seed
zCornell
xUC Santa Barbara
xUtah State
zBelmont
15-seed
xSiena
zAustin Peay
xMaryland-Baltimore County
xAmerican
16-seed
xPortland State
xMorgan State
zWinthrop
Play-in
xSacred Heart
xAlabama State
With Robert Morris's loss to Mt. St. Mary's, Sacred Heart enters the tournament as the highest remaining conference leader in the Northeast Conference. Sacred Heart will face Alabama State.
In the Bracket
George Mason
Sacred Heart
Out of the Bracket
Robert Morris
Virginia Commonwealth
Last Four In:
Texas A&M
Ohio State
New Mexico
Virginia Tech
I decided to go with two schools that were in the upper half of the top two power conferences in the nation: Texas A&M and Virginia Tech. Ohio State was deserving of some notice after their win over Purdue. New Mexico got a must-win game against UNLV.
Last Four Out:
St. Joseph's
Western Kentucky
UAB
Mississippi
The Hawks' losing 3 of 4 hurt. Western Kentucky's best chance to make the dance is to win the Sun Belt tournament. Mississippi is making a run, but the five bad losses hurt them. UAB is in a similar situation to the Rebels.
Next Four Out:
Maryland
Florida
Virginia Commonwealth
Oregon
Maryland needed to win at Virginia. Florida continues to struggle. Virginia Commonwealth needed to win the Colonial tournament. If history is any past indication, their RPI is too low to be considered for an at-large berth. Oregon finished 9-9 in the Pac-10 and making a decent case for a bid. </div> </div> </div>
Edit to take into account Robert Morris's loss yesterday.
