I would not surprise me if we are not able to host. Truth be told, I hope that I am wrong, but the way things have been going for us so far, I would not be shocked. Remember the All Conference teams for the ACCT. We did not have any one on our team to make either team. Duke's starting five make one of those teams. It is just a crying shame. Based on this fact, a person can only wonder and think this is how they really feel about our team.
Bracketology
- Thread starter UNC76
- Start date
Something I’ve been wondering: would we prefer to be a 6 seed to a 5 if we’re not chosen to host?
Probably a silly hypothetical but I think with how much the top 4-5 teams have separated themselves we’d much rather play a 6 then a 2 instead of a 4/5 followed by a 1.
Thoughts?
Probably a silly hypothetical but I think with how much the top 4-5 teams have separated themselves we’d much rather play a 6 then a 2 instead of a 4/5 followed by a 1.
Thoughts?
3/6 Bracketlogists have Carolina as a 4 seed with Maryland the 5; 2 of the remaining 3 have Carolina the 5 at Maryland- the other the 5 at Minnesota.
If you're looking for match-up wise... if we are a 4/5 ceiling is probably a S16. 6 would be E8.... but a tougher game 2 if you win and a tougher 1st rd game likely.
I would usually prefer being a 6th seed, for the goal of having a decent chance at advancing beyond the S16. I think we have drawn UofSC as a 1 seed three times in the last decade, IIRC.
With that said, our ONLY two upsets in the NCAAT in the last 30 years has been us as a 5 seed beating a 4 seed. We have been upset in that span multiple times, but we have basically never punched above our weight. Before that, our title year we were a 3 seed and upset 3 teams on the way to the title.
So maybe we are overthinking it a bit...
I will say it a couple of times every year: UNC needs to schedule less games against teams ranked below 200. It is easy to beat teams in the 100 -200 range, almost zero chance of upset.
But when you play:
#316 NCCU
#211 Elon
#260 NC A&T
#277 UNCG
#285 Boston U
#329 UNCW
#331 Charleston So
(plus #245 BC, #222 SMU, #265 Pitt in your own conference)
that is 10 games against bottom feeders. It kills your SOS and there is no score we can beat them at where out NET does not take a hit. Making matters worse, we as a program value playing depth and focus on defense which makes running up the score less of a skill we have than other top teams.
Playing 10 of these negates any benefit gained by winning a solid Cancun challenge convincingly and taking our licks against #3 TX and #2 UCLA
I firmly believe that if we played, hypothetically, 5 of:
#103 College of Charleston
#112 ECU
#142 High Point
#145 Coastal Car
#153 Liberty
#162 Charlotte
#192 App State
Instead of 5 bottom dwellers we did play, we would be higher in the NET right now due to SoS and thus more squarely on the 4 seed line. same thing in 2022. And no, we are not losing any of these if UNC is a top 25 team . UVA and BC were sub 100 three years ago when they upset us on the road. That was the year we ran out of guards and ended up an 8 seed. Those are our only sub 100 losses in the last 5 years.
How much was dook harmed by playing one of the toughest OOC schedules in the country and getting waxed repeatedly? I am not saying we should do that, just be smarter on the weaklings we play.
But when you play:
#316 NCCU
#211 Elon
#260 NC A&T
#277 UNCG
#285 Boston U
#329 UNCW
#331 Charleston So
(plus #245 BC, #222 SMU, #265 Pitt in your own conference)
that is 10 games against bottom feeders. It kills your SOS and there is no score we can beat them at where out NET does not take a hit. Making matters worse, we as a program value playing depth and focus on defense which makes running up the score less of a skill we have than other top teams.
Playing 10 of these negates any benefit gained by winning a solid Cancun challenge convincingly and taking our licks against #3 TX and #2 UCLA
I firmly believe that if we played, hypothetically, 5 of:
#103 College of Charleston
#112 ECU
#142 High Point
#145 Coastal Car
#153 Liberty
#162 Charlotte
#192 App State
Instead of 5 bottom dwellers we did play, we would be higher in the NET right now due to SoS and thus more squarely on the 4 seed line. same thing in 2022. And no, we are not losing any of these if UNC is a top 25 team . UVA and BC were sub 100 three years ago when they upset us on the road. That was the year we ran out of guards and ended up an 8 seed. Those are our only sub 100 losses in the last 5 years.
How much was dook harmed by playing one of the toughest OOC schedules in the country and getting waxed repeatedly? I am not saying we should do that, just be smarter on the weaklings we play.
UNC ended up being a 6 seed not an 8 the season BC and UVA beat them.
Have you seen Maryland’s, Michigan State’s , Kentucky’s, Minnesota’s, etc. non-conf schedules? Much weaker than ours.
I would think a higher chance of being in UCONN's or UCLA's if there is a true s-curve. They are the likely overall #1 seeds. Essentially all bracketologists have us being the 16 or 17 overall seed. 1 seed should have the "weakest 4" and highest 5.