I honestly believe UNC would be better with him going somewhere else. Maybe I'm underestimating him but they have a good enough team to win a title and the roster is full of guys who will have worked hard for that run.
I know all of us Duke fans love 1 and dones now...even though most of us found it easy to rip Cal a few years ago...but there are times they don't make a team better in March when they have less on the line then players on the bench. Just my opinion of course. Duke 2010 might not win a title if Wall picks Duke...I honestly believe that.
It's entirely context-specific. I agree that UNC is probably not going to be that harmed by losing out on Ingram b/c at some point there is a point of diminishing returns where the marginal benefit of added talent is offset by a loss in continuity / role definition when you're circulating 10 guys. With that said, if you recruit the right kids, I don't buy the notion that there are one-and-dones who have less on the line than the rest of the kids. If anything, I think these one-and-done kids sometimes have more on the line b/c (i) they only have 1 shot at the NCAAs; and (ii) their draft stock can often fluctuate significantly base on how they perform (as we saw with Tyus and Justice who both made a lot of money during this NCAA tourney). We may have lost b/c Jabari / Hood played poorly last year -- but there's isn't a doubt in my mind that those two wanted to win as badly as everyone else on the team.
IMO, the major risk with building a team around one-an-dones is that their talent level far exceeds their experience and maturity-levels and it's hard to know how they'll handle the pressure / stage / increased intensity of the NCAAs. The 13-14 team regularly crumbled under the weight of pressure b/c, while those two were great for 35 minutes a night, they habitually didn't play like stars down the stretch of the games and that seemed to unsettle the entire team. What cause that? Who knows. I think they were just too young / inexperienced to lead a Duke team. The big differences between the 2014 group and the ones who've struggled IMO is that (i) we had a sr. who was a star player; (ii) the OADs on this squad were unusually mature; and (iii) no one player was required to carry the scoring load on any given night. IMO, the beauty of last year's squad was that we had so many options that we could withstand a bad game by 1 or 2 of our OAD players -- whether it be Jah in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, Tyus in the 3rd round, Justise / Okafor in the title game My takeaway from the 11-12 or 13-14 seasons, IMO, is that you can't expect a OAD to perform like a Sr. Christian Laettner, Sr. Grant Hill, or a Sr. Shane Battier -- i.e., be great or close to great on a night-in, night-out basis. The fundamental problem with the 11-12 and 13-14 teams was that both squads were very susceptible to an upset on nights when anyone of our OADs struggled --- and I think they all carried the pressure of that as well.