Breakdown of NU's FT disparity in BT vs OOC

[Cat-Court-Jester]

We've now played 11 OOC games, and 11 BT games.

In OOC games, we shot 250 FTs, and our opponents shot 202. The only game in which we had a significant deficit in FTs was Chicago State (14 for NU, 22 for CS) and that game we won by 42 points so I think it's fair to say we called the dogs off.

In Big Ten Games, our opponents have shot 206 FTs, and we have shot only 166. We've had three games where our BT opponents shot 9 or more FTs than NU, and zero where we've shot 9 or more FTs than our BT opponents.

Amazingly, the disparity is even worse for NU at home. NU averages 12.5 FTs on the road in the BT (versus 18.2 at Welsh-Ryan), but our opponents average 22.6 FTs per game at Welsh-Ryan! Versus just 15.5 playing NU on their home courts. Teams generally shoot more FTs at home versus the road, so this disparity is really shocking.

So there's a huge disparity in FTs for NU in BT versus OOC games. Some of the disparity is undoubtedly explained by style of play (being more aggressive against less talented opponents) but in BT play I'm increasingly seeing NU players taking significant contact driving to the hoop or in the post, and no call. Plays the other way with equivalent or less contact routinely called against NU. I also see waaaay more "off the ball" calls against NU - against Illinois it reached comical levels. And style of play wouldn't explain why opponents are shooting more than 7 FTs at Welsh-Ryan versus their home courts.

Biggest example of the lack of calls in conference is all the contact on Pardon. A big man shooting that many shots that close to the basket should be shooting way more FTs - against Michigan he shot 16 times and 0 FTs. Against MSU 15 shots and 2 FTs. Tonight 14 shots and 3 FTs. At one point tonight you had a PSU player coming down hard with both arms - it actually looked like he was trying to foul Pardon - aggressive motion, tons of contact, no call. NU players that do drive to the hoop hard rarely get the call when there's contact. And it's a vicious cycle - not getting calls in turn it makes NU players less likely to drive and look for contact. Heck NU players get more bizarre offensive fouls called per drive than any team I've ever seen in college or pro basketball. It must be demoralizing for the players.

The other interesting disparity is the amount of time refs spend conversing with opposing coaches, versus their interactions with Collins. Tonight the refs had full-on conversations with Chambers and only terse interactions with Collins. After every review the refs walked to Chambers to explain a review, never to Collins. With OOC games refs aren't as familiar with opposing coaches, and Collins seems more relaxed. But regardless, Collins has not built the rapport with referees that other opposing Big Ten coaches have. It's odd because Collins does seem to be very respected by opposing coaches. Collins is an uber-competitive guy and however he's talking to refs just seems to rub them the wrong way. It almost seems like ever since that goal-tending call (and subsequent tech) against Gonzaga, he's had a chip on his shoulder about NU getting screwed by refs. And you know what - he's right.

I know people are going to say I'm paranoid or that I'm "blaming the refs" for all NU losses. I may be paranoid but I'm not blaming the refs for losses. Just stating the facts... the FT and foul numbers are piling up, we have enough of a sample size that it's becoming statistically significant. And it confirms what I'm seeing night in and night out, with the way BT refs are calling NU games.

 

[mikewebb68]

We've now played 11 OOC games, and 11 BT games.

In OOC games, we shot 250 FTs, and our opponents shot 202. The only game in which we had a significant deficit in FTs was Chicago State (14 for NU, 22 for CS) and that game we won by 42 points so I think it's fair to say we called the dogs off.

In Big Ten Games, our opponents have shot 206 FTs, and we have shot only 166. We've had three games where our BT opponents shot 9 or more FTs, and zero where we've shot 9 or more FTs than our BT opponents.

Amazingly, the disparity is even worse for NU at home. NU averages 12.5 FTs on the road in the BT (versus 18.2 at Welsh-Ryan), but our opponents average 22.6 FTs per game at Welsh-Ryan! Versus just 15.5 playing NU on their home courts. Teams generally shoot more FTs at home versus the road, so this disparity is really shocking.

So there's a huge disparity in FTs for NU in BT versus OOC games. Some of the disparity is undoubtedly explained by style of play (being more aggressive against less talented opponents) but in BT play I'm increasingly seeing NU players taking significant contact driving to the hoop or in the post, and no call. Plays the other way with equivalent or less contact routinely called against NU. I also see waaaay more "off the ball" calls against NU - against Illinois it reached comical levels. And style of play wouldn't explain why opponents are shooting more than 7 FTs at Welsh-Ryan versus their home courts.

Biggest example of the lack of calls in conference is all the contact on Pardon. A big man shooting that many shots that close to the basket should be shooting way more FTs - against Michigan he shot 16 times and 0 FTs. Against MSU 15 shots and 2 FTs. Tonight 14 shots and 3 FTs. At one point tonight you had a PSU player coming down hard with both arms - it actually looked like he was trying to foul Pardon - aggressive motion, tons of contact, no call. NU players that do drive to the hoop hard rarely get the call when there's contact. And it's a vicious cycle - not getting calls in turn it makes NU players less likely to drive and look for contact. Heck NU players get more bizarre offensive fouls called per drive than any team I've ever seen in college or pro basketball. It must be demoralizing for the players.

The other interesting disparity is the amount of time refs spend conversing with opposing coaches, versus their interactions with Collins. Tonight the refs had full-on conversations with Chambers and only terse interactions with Collins. After every review the refs walked to Chambers to explain a review, never to Collins. With OOC games refs aren't as familiar with opposing coaches, and Collins seems more relaxed. But regardless, Collins has not built the rapport with referees that other opposing Big Ten coaches have. It's odd because Collins does seem to be very respected by opposing coaches. Collins is an uber-competitive guy and however he's talking to refs just seems to rub them the wrong way. It almost seems like ever since that goal-tending call (and subsequent tech) against Gonzaga, he's had a chip on his shoulder about NU getting screwed by refs. And you know what - he's right.

I know people are going to say I'm paranoid or that I'm "blaming the refs" for all NU losses. I may be paranoid but I'm not blaming the refs for losses. Just stating the facts... the FT and foul numbers are piling up, we have enough of a sample size that it's becoming statistically significant. And it confirms what I'm seeing night in and night out, with the way BT refs are calling NU games.

Largely agree (the Iowa game was beyond ridiculous; one of the refs actually had it in for us since we wouldn't eject a fan), but we don't help ourselves when we don't make shots. Law's not getting fouled on a lot of his attempts, yet he is still missing them.

 

[eastbaycat99]

I think you are being a little paranoid. Tonight the Cats were -19 to the line, and the way the game was called was certainly not in Pardon’s favor, but it looked to me like PSU was also a superior team and the Cats were late consistently in their defensive rotation leading to fouls. At -19, maybe the refs tonight did have it in for CCC. But In the prior 10 conference games, the Cats were -21, or 2 free throws (basically one foul) more a game. Seeing where they were beaten soundly in 5 of those games, that doesn’t seem too far out of line. Seeing where the Cats were superior to their OOC opponents, racking up 7 double digit wins as opposed to no double digit wins in conference, the OOC to conference disparity might be quite as meaningful. And if you take the OOC games against the 3 best on the schedule, OK, GT and FSU, the Cats were -6 or 2 a game, pretty much where they were for the first 10 games of the conference season.
As has been noted in many places, Pardon is a little small for a B1G center and Benson has not always been very impressive. I think the size of B1G big men may account for the disparity instead of the refs having it in for the Cats.

 

[Username Not Available]

It is discouraging as a fan seeing the same stuff.

 

[lunker35]

We've now played 11 OOC games, and 11 BT games.

In OOC games, we shot 250 FTs, and our opponents shot 202. The only game in which we had a significant deficit in FTs was Chicago State (14 for NU, 22 for CS) and that game we won by 42 points so I think it's fair to say we called the dogs off.

In Big Ten Games, our opponents have shot 206 FTs, and we have shot only 166. We've had three games where our BT opponents shot 9 or more FTs, and zero where we've shot 9 or more FTs than our BT opponents.

Amazingly, the disparity is even worse for NU at home. NU averages 12.5 FTs on the road in the BT (versus 18.2 at Welsh-Ryan), but our opponents average 22.6 FTs per game at Welsh-Ryan! Versus just 15.5 playing NU on their home courts. Teams generally shoot more FTs at home versus the road, so this disparity is really shocking.

So there's a huge disparity in FTs for NU in BT versus OOC games. Some of the disparity is undoubtedly explained by style of play (being more aggressive against less talented opponents) but in BT play I'm increasingly seeing NU players taking significant contact driving to the hoop or in the post, and no call. Plays the other way with equivalent or less contact routinely called against NU. I also see waaaay more "off the ball" calls against NU - against Illinois it reached comical levels. And style of play wouldn't explain why opponents are shooting more than 7 FTs at Welsh-Ryan versus their home courts.

Biggest example of the lack of calls in conference is all the contact on Pardon. A big man shooting that many shots that close to the basket should be shooting way more FTs - against Michigan he shot 16 times and 0 FTs. Against MSU 15 shots and 2 FTs. Tonight 14 shots and 3 FTs. At one point tonight you had a PSU player coming down hard with both arms - it actually looked like he was trying to foul Pardon - aggressive motion, tons of contact, no call. NU players that do drive to the hoop hard rarely get the call when there's contact. And it's a vicious cycle - not getting calls in turn it makes NU players less likely to drive and look for contact. Heck NU players get more bizarre offensive fouls called per drive than any team I've ever seen in college or pro basketball. It must be demoralizing for the players.

The other interesting disparity is the amount of time refs spend conversing with opposing coaches, versus their interactions with Collins. Tonight the refs had full-on conversations with Chambers and only terse interactions with Collins. After every review the refs walked to Chambers to explain a review, never to Collins. With OOC games refs aren't as familiar with opposing coaches, and Collins seems more relaxed. But regardless, Collins has not built the rapport with referees that other opposing Big Ten coaches have. It's odd because Collins does seem to be very respected by opposing coaches. Collins is an uber-competitive guy and however he's talking to refs just seems to rub them the wrong way. It almost seems like ever since that goal-tending call (and subsequent tech) against Gonzaga, he's had a chip on his shoulder about NU getting screwed by refs. And you know what - he's right.

I know people are going to say I'm paranoid or that I'm "blaming the refs" for all NU losses. I may be paranoid but I'm not blaming the refs for losses. Just stating the facts... the FT and foul numbers are piling up, we have enough of a sample size that it's becoming statistically significant. And it confirms what I'm seeing night in and night out, with the way BT refs are calling NU games.

Great post. You’re absolutely right. There is something wrong with the refs and I’m not trying to play conspiracy theory craziness. They seem to call two separate games when we play. Tonight in addition to the fouls they missed a clear kick that would have resulted in our possession and called a completely phantom jump ball.

 

[CookyMonster_rivals63285]

Losers usually talk about the refs.

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

I think you are being a little paranoid. Tonight the Cats were -19 to the line, and the way the game was called was certainly not in Pardon’s favor, but it looked to me like PSU was also a superior team and the Cats were late consistently in their defensive rotation leading to fouls. At -19, maybe the refs tonight did have it in for CCC. But In the prior 10 conference games, the Cats were -21, or 2 free throws (basically one foul) more a game. Seeing where they were beaten soundly in 5 of those games, that doesn’t seem too far out of line. Seeing where the Cats were superior to their OOC opponents, racking up 7 double digit wins as opposed to no double digit wins in conference, the OOC to conference disparity might be quite as meaningful. And if you take the OOC games against the 3 best on the schedule, OK, GT and FSU, the Cats were -6 or 2 a game, pretty much where they were for the first 10 games of the conference season.
As has been noted in many places, Pardon is a little small for a B1G center and Benson has not always been very impressive. I think the size of B1G big men may account for the disparity instead of the refs having it in for the Cats.

First the OOC FT numbers, you picked OK, GT and Fresno but omitted Utah and DePaul, both of whom have winning records at this point (unlike GT which is 11-11). Including those two opponents you'd have a sample of our five toughest OOC games... NU was +6 in FTs in those games, not -6.

As for BT FT numbers, even omitting tonight's huge -19 disparity, - 21 after 10 games is significant! 7 out of 11 of NU's BT games were tight down the stretch - you say NU was beaten soundly in 5 games, but I think you must be including Iowa in that group. That was a 5 point game with 4 minutes left, and it also happens to be a great example of FT disparity killing us - Iowa was 21-26 on FTs, NU 12-16. Garza shot 11 FTs and apparently could turn and throw elbows at our big men, and BT refs chose to review and rescind his offensive foul after review. Pardon shot 1 FT and fouled out in 29 minutes. No respect from BT refs.

I don't buy Pardon being an undersized post player as a factor - plenty of smaller post players get lots of foul calls - from Charles Barkley to Draymond Green. Tonight Lamar Stevens shot 10 FTs against us - and he is... a 6'8" C/F (PSU has no listed center on their roster). Nick Ward on MSU is 6'8" and effectively their C - he shoots a lot of FTs. Pardon gets hit, a lot - he just doesn't get calls. He's also extremely respectful towards the refs - unlike Lamar Stevens, for example. But he still doesn't get calls when there's contact, I don't get it.

Overall - I think it's a combination of BT refs lacking respect for / rapport with Collins, and "calling the jersey" when we get into BT play. But whatever it is - BT refs have done us no favors this year, and the FT numbers make that clear.

 

[eastbaycat99]

I think you are missing the elephant and focusing on the rat.
I pointed out the 10 point game deficits in conference and surplus out of conference to point out that generally, the Cats were the dominant team in non conference and are generally being beaten in conference. If you want to attribute that to officiating bias (the rat), fine. A pretty plausible Explanation is the elephant: the better team in a basketball game generally gets to the line more (usually because they are quicker/stronger/better prepared and switch or pick cleanly) and the Cats were better than most of their OOC opponents and inferior to their conference opponents.
With respect to Pardon’s size and prevalence to fouling, I don’t know what to say except watching a lot of basketball over the years, the weaker guy in the post generally gets called for more fouls. If you’ve seen it differently, I will respect that.

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

To update these states, now including the last three games:

Free Throws:

Iowa 25 v NU 18

Rutgers 15 v NU 15

Neb 14 v NU 8

So the discrepancy is now...

OOC Opponents 202 v NU 250

BT Opponents 260 v NU 207

Through 14 BT games we are now -53 in Free Throw differential.

So maybe it really is, as EastBayCat says, that the better teams gets to the line more? Well let's look at that in the Big Ten.

Last in the BT is Penn State, through 14 BT they've shot 265 Free Throws, and their opponents 263. So in the BT they have a +2 Free Throw differential.

First in the Big Ten is Michigan and through 14 in the BT they're at 213 v 197, so +16.

We are the outlier. If you drew a scatterplot we'd be the one point way out there, when all the others are bunched up. I doubt anyone in the Big Ten is anywhere close to our negative differential.

And if you look at our "control group" of OOC games, we were +48 in those 11 games. Even in the four best OOC opponents (most similar to BT opponents - FSU is 19-6, Utah 14-10, DePaul 13-11, GT 11-15) we were +6 differential.

Statistical conclusion: We are not getting calls in the Big Ten, and the disparities are stunning - both NU's OOC v BT games, and NU v the rest of the Big Ten.

The best only-against-Northwestern moment tonight: Nebraska's Palmer has two seconds on the shot clock and is 8 feet behind the three point line. AJ Turner goes straight up and will land in front of Palmer. Palmer tries to jumps forward into Turner, to initiate contact, and Palmer leads with his shoulder and doesn't even really get a shot off, he just throws the ball forward. The ref right that's 10 feet away visibly shakes his head "No" - the ball goes into Anthony Gaines' arms, the horn sounds for shot clock violation. The same ref 10 feet away blows his whistle and raises his arm for a shot clock violation.

A solid three seconds after the "shot" was thrown up and after the shot clock violation, the ref from all the way across the floor runs over and apparently signals shooting foul (he never raised his arm until after the shot clock violation, so it's not at all clear, but he did award a foul).

Palmer then makes all three Free Throws, taking the game from 23-19 to 26-19 with 6 minutes left in the first. Palmer's three free throws are more than Northwestern had all game at that point. Only against Northwestern.

 

[NUCat320]

Northwestern doesn’t draw fouls because Northwestern puts no pressure on the defense. Really good at passing around the perimeter tho.

 

[Secho99]

The best only-against-Northwestern moment tonight: Nebraska's Palmer has two seconds on the shot clock and is 8 feet behind the three point line. AJ Turner goes straight up and will land in front of Palmer.

This was a foul. Turner didn’t go straight up and down, on first look I thought he did but on replay he pretty clearly jumped forward and the shooter’s almost always going to get that call.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Northwestern doesn’t draw fouls because Northwestern puts no pressure on the defense. Really good at passing around the perimeter tho.

Exactly. Gaines is the only one that is aggressive to the hole. Pardon draws plenty of fouls, but teams deny the entry pass. Law occasionally gets frisky going to the basket, but too often pulls up for the jumper. The rest of the guys float around the perimeter and you never foul the three point shooter.

This season we have had a few terribly officiated games. However, for the most part we have gotten what we deserve. I personally have no idea what we are doing on offense. If we have a set of go to plays, I can’t find them. NU’s defense has been pretty darn good, but their offense is abysmal. Hence no fouls on the other team.

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

This was a foul. Turner didn’t go straight up and down, on first look I thought he did but on replay he pretty clearly jumped forward and the shooter’s almost always going to get that call.

I re-watched it a half dozen times (mostly to time how late the call was, which was over 3 seconds) and Turner's left foot (closest to the shooter) landed almost exactly in the spot from where he jumped.

Shooters get this call when they are not intentionally changing their direction to initiate contact. Kevin Love used to get a player in the air on a close-out and then jump sideways to get contact. NBA changed the rule and the NCAA followed suit - adding the "airborne defender exception" to clarify that the defender is allowed move forward when clearly will not make contact on shooter. Shooters can no longer jump into a defender who would otherwise clearly miss the shooter. That was the case here.

Regardless refs miss calls all the time, and this was a recent rule change (2016-2017 season) so it wouldn't be surprising if a ref made a bad call. What made this incredible is the ref right there got the call right, shaking his head and clearly signaling for a shot clock violation. The ref way on the other side THREE SECONDS after the shot and after the shot clock violation, ran in to stop play as the players were running back the other way, to emphatically call a three-shot shooting foul. That was the "only against Northwestern" moment - I've almost every second of NU's BT games this year, and I haven't once seen a BT ref make a call that late in favor of NU.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

Whatever happened, there's a big difference when the guy fouled on the 3 hits 3 out of 3, as opposed to 1 out of 3, as was the case for the Cats.

 

[NURoseBowl]

Exactly. Gaines is the only one that is aggressive to the hole. Pardon draws plenty of fouls, but teams deny the entry pass. Law occasionally gets frisky going to the basket, but too often pulls up for the jumper. The rest of the guys float around the perimeter and you never foul the three point shooter.

This season we have had a few terribly officiated games. However, for the most part we have gotten what we deserve. I personally have no idea what we are doing on offense. If we have a set of go to plays, I can’t find them. NU’s defense has been pretty darn good, but their offense is abysmal. Hence no fouls on the other team.

Spot on, PPD. Our roster almost never has any slashers who can effectively drive the lane, creating contact and drawing fouls. Typically, most every team in the Big Ten has multiple players who can beat a defender one-on-one and get to the hole - THAT'S where your free throw edge is going to come from.
Teams like that will always get to the line more (and at times, considerably more) than jump shooting teams.

 

[mikewebb68]

Exactly. Gaines is the only one that is aggressive to the hole. Pardon draws plenty of fouls, but teams deny the entry pass. Law occasionally gets frisky going to the basket, but too often pulls up for the jumper. The rest of the guys float around the perimeter and you never foul the three point shooter.

This season we have had a few terribly officiated games. However, for the most part we have gotten what we deserve. I personally have no idea what we are doing on offense. If we have a set of go to plays, I can’t find them. NU’s defense has been pretty darn good, but their offense is abysmal. Hence no fouls on the other team.

This. We've had a few bad calls, but most teams do. Only one terribly officiated game that I can recall (home vs. Iowa) and other teams have had one or two of those as well (The Minny-Nebby game was literally stolen from Minny the other night by the officials, as just the latest example)

Also tough to analyze these numbers because we've also play more road BIG games than anyone else, and team almost always get less calls on the road. Be interesting to see these numbers when the season is complete the the home/road games have evened out.

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

Also tough to analyze these numbers because we've also play more road BIG games than anyone else, and team almost always get less calls on the road. Be interesting to see these numbers when the season is complete the the home/road games have evened out.

For most teams this would be true - but if you see my original post NU has a MUCH WORSE FT differential for BT games at home, versus the road! Opposing teams are averaging about 7 more FTs when they play at Welsh-Ryan, versus their home floors. It's mind-boggling, but true.

And to those pointing at style of play - while there are very valid points, keep in mind these are the same players that were averaging ~23 FTs a game OOC to ~14 in BT. That's a huge difference, and while there may be some difference in shot selection, our main free throw shooters - Pardon, Law, and Gaines - are taking roughly the same shots.

In particular Pardon - his game is set and he's taking just as many shots in BT play, but he's officiated vastly differently. Against Nebraska he took 12 shots and didn't draw a single shooting foul the entire game, not one! A lot of contact, particularly on put backs when he was clearly pushed in the back, nothing. He finally shot two free throws with a minute left when the game was over, after a hook-and-hold flagrant 1 that had to be reviewed to be called.

I know some would say Pardon is undersized in the Big Ten, but he's 6-8, 240 with a long wingspan - that's not too undersized in the Big Ten. Utah had a 7-footer and Pardon took 5 shots and had 7 FTs. DePaul has Femi Olujobi who is 6-9 260, and Pardon took 7 shots and had 8 FTs. He probably hasn't had a single BT game with more FTs than shots. He just doesn't get the whistle in BT games.

And even if our offensive style of play has changed a bit, that wouldn't have much affect on our opponents' FT attempts - and those are way, way up in BT play. Time and again I see our BT opponents get ticky-tack fouls against us, on drives, in the post, and off-the-ball. NU gets these calls at a much lower rate than our BT opponents.

 

[IdahoAlum]

So 40 years later Don Canham is proven right — Northwestern needs to leave the Big Ten.

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

On the topic of refs... here's an article that showed Tim Donaghy was able to swing outcome to his gambling partners' bets with 88 percent accuracy!

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25980368/how-former-ref-tim-donaghy-conspired-fix-nba-games

Note I am not saying this is happening in our games, and there's a huge difference between intentionally making poor calls to achieve a certain outcome, and poor calls based on biases - whether because of grudges, fear of consequences, personal dynamics, or other reasons. But this does show the power of a referee to influence outcomes.

One ref, 88 percent... against the spread! Statistically those outcomes should have been 50/50. So that is quite incredible.

 

[IdahoAlum]

Anybody hear Dan Dakich's comments on the Indiana-Purdue game last night? He said when he was an assistant to Bob Knight, he'd say, "It's time for you to get up and change the game. (Complain to the officials). And then Eddie Hightower would call three straight traveling calls on the other team..." His broadcast partner seemed incredulous and said, "Well, how many times did that work?" And Dakich said, "Probably 3 out of 4."

Dakich told the story after a blocking call on Purdue that Dakich felt was clearly a charge on the Indiana player. "No way they're going to call a charge on that in this building," he said.

Clearly, basketball is a game of emotions. Teams go on runs, players get hot, and officials react...sometimes emotionally. It's the human element. And if you told an NBA player on a bad team, "Hey, you're probably not going to get the benefit of the doubt from the officials," he'd probably say, "No ****." NU is a bad basketball team right now. Rightly or wrong, they aren't going to get a lot of calls.

 

[eastbaycat99]

Anybody hear Dan Dakich's comments on the Indiana-Purdue game last night? He said when he was an assistant to Bob Knight, he'd say, "It's time for you to get up and change the game. (Complain to the officials). And then Eddie Hightower would call three straight traveling calls on the other team..." His broadcast partner seemed incredulous and said, "Well, how many times did that work?" And Dakich said, "Probably 3 out of 4."

Dakich told the story after a blocking call on Purdue that Dakich felt was clearly a charge on the Indiana player. "No way they're going to call a charge on that in this building," he said.

Clearly, basketball is a game of emotions. Teams go on runs, players get hot, and officials react...sometimes emotionally. It's the human element. And if you told an NBA player on a bad team, "Hey, you're probably not going to get the benefit of the doubt from the officials," he'd probably say, "No ****." NU is a bad basketball team right now. Rightly or wrong, they aren't going to get a lot of calls.

You cannot use Ed Hightower as a case for general referee bias. He was one of a kind, and to my eye, one of the only B1G refs/officials who made regularly made calls to influence games to his desired outcome.

 

[IdahoAlum]

You cannot use Ed Hightower as a case for general referee bias. He was one of a kind, and to my eye, one of the only B1G refs/officials who made regularly made calls to influence games to his desired outcome.

I think Dakich was throwing out a name to illustrate his point.

 

[eastbaycat99]

I think Dakich was throwing out a name to illustrate his point.

Hightower was sui generis. If you followed B1G basketball the years he was an official, you knew who he was (I think he hung up his Nikes in about 2013.)

 

[IdahoAlum]

Hightower was sui generis. If you followed B1G basketball the years he was an official, you knew who he was (I think he hung up his Nikes in about 2013.)

He also worked 12 Final Fours, work you don't get unless you're pretty good. Again, I think Dakich was just throwing out a name to illustrate his point.

 

[eastbaycat99]

He also worked 12 Final Fours, work you don't get unless you're pretty good. Again, I think Dakich was just throwing out a name to illustrate his point.

You could always tell a game Ed Hightower officiated. There were internet blogs devoted to how he had screwed one team or another.

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

Tonight with 7 minutes to go the FT count was Minnesota 16, NU 3.

After that it looked like the refs realized it and tried to even it up - and with the Cats down 20 at that point, of course it wouldn't matter. Final FT count was Minnesota 19, NU 10.

At some point it'll be interesting to look at the historical FT disparities for Big Ten teams (or any college teams), looking at Out-Of-Conference play versus Conference play within the same season. I'd be willing to bet NU will end up with the largest disparity of any Big Ten team this year, and likely many years going back.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Tonight with 7 minutes to go the FT count was Minnesota 16, NU 3.

After that it looked like the refs realized it and tried to even it up - and with the Cats down 20 at that point, of course it wouldn't matter. Final FT count was Minnesota 19, NU 10.

At some point it'll be interesting to look at the historical FT disparities for Big Ten teams (or any college teams), looking at Out-Of-Conference play versus Conference play within the same season. I'd be willing to bet NU will end up with the largest disparity of any Big Ten team this year, and likely many years going back.

Other teams have players that aggressively drive to the hoop. Other teams have more than 1 player fighting for inside position.

There was nothing wrong with yesterday’s officiating.

 

[NUCat320]

Tonight with 7 minutes to go the FT count was Minnesota 16, NU 3.

It’s almost like Minnesota has a plan on offense, has a dynamic athlete who can get inside, creates some action, and draws fouls.

It’s almost like NU has nobody who has ever run a team.

 

[Medill90]

Other teams have players that aggressively drive to the hoop. Other teams have more than 1 player fighting for inside position.

There was nothing wrong with yesterday’s officiating.

NU has no inside game. One decent post player does not an inside game make. With lousy shooting around him, Pardon is easily doubled. His offensive accomplishments are all the more impressive.

NU has movement on O but it's not threatening. And too often Vic is forced to use his quickness to get open with the ball. Those don't result in drives, they result in 15 foot shots or threes, too often off-balance and contested.

We talk about the loss of B Mac. Lindsey is a loss on the offensive end, that threat has not been replaced. Skelly is a loss on both ends with his size and energy and rebounding. Skelly did not camp at the three point line.

Kopp's going to be good next year and I think Nance will be good. Nance needs to get stronger, obviously, but he also needs to become lethal from 10-15 feet.

I know what that statistics say re three pointers....but an occasional two points is better than no points.

 

[haywood jahblowme]

Coffey lit up NU, and while his sister was a legend at NU, their parents laughed that he wouldn't get into school at NU

 

[Username Not Available]

Coffey did great until they put Gaines on him.

Minn’s brilliant offensive strategy was give the ball to their best player to dribble around, have their sharp shooters stand around the perimeter and sometimes move or set a ball screen while their bigs battle for position in the post.

It sounds vaguely familiar somehow.

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

Well tonight Northwestern made 26 shots, versus UIUC 21. We made 7 threes, to their 6. That looks like a solid win...

BUT UIUC shot 38 FREE THROWS, to NU's 22! That was the difference.

I know people are going to say this is because UIUC's style of play. Except their last game against Purdue they shot 9 FTs. A few games before that against Wisconsin, at home, they shot 11 FTs. BT refs respect those teams. Against NU, UIUC shot more FTs than they have in any other BT game.

And most of the calls against NU in the second half were not shooting fouls on drives to the rim, they were ticky-tack blocking fouls away from the basket. When UIUC hit the bonus about 9 minutes into second half, it was on a bullsh*t call against Greer 30 feet away from the basket, where Greer had good position and didn't initiate contact at all. You could literally have made that same call against UIUC on 90% of NU's possessions. Pardon got called for who knows what with standard post defense, or for hitting all ball when Dosumnu lost it.

To top it off, refs fouled out our best player on a critical possession after Bashavielli took 4 steps before going up, and Law touched nothing but the ball.

At this point if people don't see that NU is ref'd different from other Big Ten teams, then I don't know what to tell you. Watching the games it is clear, and the numbers make it indisputable. NU was ref'd out of conference games in a pretty standard way - with NU shooting more FTs than their opponents - even against the power conference teams.

BT season starts, NU is now on pace to shoot 100 fewer FTs than BT opponents. By far the biggest negative FT differential.. it's not even close.

Fran McCaffery - whose team gets more calls than anyone in the league - calls out a Big Ten official in a hallway altercation, calling him a "cheating motherf*cker" and a "f*cking discrace*... Iowa will still get calls...the very next game they shot 36 FTs. Beilein got ejected against Penn State, he'll still get calls. Underwood screams at refs until he's red five times a game... it works.

Collins will occasionally give an incredulous look, but at this point he looks like he's given up trying to influence the refs, he doesn't try to show them up. Media won't say anything either - BT refs can screw NU night in and night out and there are no consequences.

 

[mikewebb68]

Well tonight Northwestern made 26 shots, versus UIUC 21. We made 7 threes, to their 6. That looks like a solid win...

BUT UIUC shot 38 FREE THROWS, to NU's 22! That was the difference.

I know people are going to say this is because UIUC's style of play. Except their last game against Purdue they shot 9 FTs. A few games before that against Wisconsin, at home, they shot 11 FTs. BT refs respect those teams. Against NU, UIUC shot more FTs than they have in any other BT game.

And most of the calls against NU in the second half were not shooting fouls on drives to the rim, they were ticky-tack blocking fouls away from the basket. When UIUC hit the bonus about 9 minutes into second half, it was on a bullsh*t call against Greer 30 feet away from the basket, where Greer had good position and didn't initiate contact at all. You could literally have made that same call against UIUC on 90% of NU's possessions. Pardon got called for who knows what with standard post defense, or for hitting all ball when Dosumnu lost it.

To top it off, refs fouled out our best player on a critical possession after Bashavielli took 4 steps before going up, and Law touched nothing but the ball.

At this point if people don't see that NU is ref'd different from other Big Ten teams, then I don't know what to tell you. Watching the games it is clear, and the numbers make it indisputable. NU was ref'd out of conference games in a pretty standard way - with NU shooting more FTs than their opponents - even against the power conference teams.

BT season starts, NU is now on pace to shoot 100 fewer FTs than BT opponents. By far the biggest negative FT differential.. it's not even close.

Fran McCaffery - whose team gets more calls than anyone in the league - calls out a Big Ten official in a hallway altercation, calling him a "cheating motherf*cker" and a "f*cking discrace*... Iowa will still get calls...the very next game they shot 36 FTs. Beilein got ejected against Penn State, he'll still get calls. Underwood screams at refs until he's red five times a game... it works.

Collins will occasionally give an incredulous look, but at this point he looks like he's given up trying to influence the refs, he doesn't try to show them up. Media won't say anything either - BT refs can screw NU night in and night out and there are no consequences.

Haven't been with you on these, but you are spot on tonight. When a team that has an even a greater negative FT disparity than us on the season (and it is not even close) is +16 there is only one explanation. Home cooking, pure and simple.

 

[hdhntr1]

Other teams have players that aggressively drive to the hoop. Other teams have more than 1 player fighting for inside position.

There was nothing wrong with yesterday’s officiating.

I think his point is the differentce in how things are called with NU in BIG games vs OOC games.

 

[eastbaycat99]

Well tonight Northwestern made 26 shots, versus UIUC 21. We made 7 threes, to their 6. That looks like a solid win...

BUT UIUC shot 38 FREE THROWS, to NU's 22! That was the difference.

I know people are going to say this is because UIUC's style of play. Except their last game against Purdue they shot 9 FTs. A few games before that against Wisconsin, at home, they shot 11 FTs. BT refs respect those teams. Against NU, UIUC shot more FTs than they have in any other BT game.

And most of the calls against NU in the second half were not shooting fouls on drives to the rim, they were ticky-tack blocking fouls away from the basket. When UIUC hit the bonus about 9 minutes into second half, it was on a bullsh*t call against Greer 30 feet away from the basket, where Greer had good position and didn't initiate contact at all. You could literally have made that same call against UIUC on 90% of NU's possessions. Pardon got called for who knows what with standard post defense, or for hitting all ball when Dosumnu lost it.

To top it off, refs fouled out our best player on a critical possession after Bashavielli took 4 steps before going up, and Law touched nothing but the ball.

At this point if people don't see that NU is ref'd different from other Big Ten teams, then I don't know what to tell you. Watching the games it is clear, and the numbers make it indisputable. NU was ref'd out of conference games in a pretty standard way - with NU shooting more FTs than their opponents - even against the power conference teams.

BT season starts, NU is now on pace to shoot 100 fewer FTs than BT opponents. By far the biggest negative FT differential.. it's not even close.

Fran McCaffery - whose team gets more calls than anyone in the league - calls out a Big Ten official in a hallway altercation, calling him a "cheating motherf*cker" and a "f*cking discrace*... Iowa will still get calls...the very next game they shot 36 FTs. Beilein got ejected against Penn State, he'll still get calls. Underwood screams at refs until he's red five times a game... it works.

Collins will occasionally give an incredulous look, but at this point he looks like he's given up trying to influence the refs, he doesn't try to show them up. Media won't say anything either - BT refs can screw NU night in and night out and there are no consequences.

I have to ask if you have ever reffed basketball, and if so, at what level? Have you ever reffed or umpired any sport? At higher levels, the refs I have known have real integrity and are not out to show anyone up.

The simpler explanation for the foul stats you have been compiling have to do with the way B1G teams have played the Cats after the first few conference games. The Cats have been beaten consistently in a number of areas, and that accounts for the discrepancy in fouls called.

Basketball refs make mistakes, largely because there is an incredible number of things going on in a basketball game at any given moment. I think they made some poor calls in tonight’s game. Some studies have found that home teams get marginally favorable calls. Having said that, Suggesting that refs at the level of those the B1G uses have it in for the Cats this year is contrary to the degree of integrity I believe B1G refs have. For years, Rich Falk was the supervisor for officials for the conference, and many current refs the conference uses were first hired when he was in charge. To suggest what you are suggesting in this post is insulting to a group of people who work hard and take their responsibility very seriously.

One thing I will say from my experience as an official: I was often called out by fans or parents of teams as biased in games where I was peer or supervisor reviewed and scored out in those reviews as “outstanding”. I really believe Fans see the game through glasses of their school’s colors, and not creating objectively. With some luck, the team will improve, and the disparity in fouls called that you have tabulated will disappear. In the meantime, unless you have called games at this level and hence have an insider’s knowledge, please try to respect what the refs bring to the arenas every night.

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

Basketball refs make mistakes, largely because there is an incredible number of things going on in a basketball game at any given moment. I think they made some poor calls in tonight’s game. Some studies have found that home teams get marginally favorable calls. Having said that, Suggesting that refs at the level of those the B1G uses have it in for the Cats this year is contrary to the degree of integrity I believe B1G refs have. For years, Rich Falk was the supervisor for officials for the conference, and many current refs the conference uses were first hired when he was in charge. To suggest what you are suggesting in this post is insulting to a group of people who work hard and take their responsibility very seriously.

I have been a referee but I'm not sure the relevance to this thread, and specifically the analysis comparing NU's treatment by referees OOC versus Big Ten this season.

As you point out there have been studies that have found that home teams generally get better calls than visiting teams. Referees are humans doing a job, and as humans they're not infallible, or immune to biases. They don't "have it in" for the away teams... rather they react to incentives and feel emotions. That's what the studies you reference demonstrated - that home teams get better calls because referees don't like being berated by home fans, nor do they like being berated by coaches. As others have pointed out in this thread, coaches know how to influence refs - some are better at it than others - but there's a reason that coaches interact with refs so much. Because it works!

Refs also don't like being berated in the media. Case in point: the Big Ten ref Steve McJunkins, that was recently confronted after an Iowa game and called a "Cheating motherf*cker!" and "a f*cking disgrace!" by Fran McCaffery... McJunkins was called out in dozens of national publications...USA Today, WaPo, ESPN...I think he'll remember that and it may affect him when he refs McCaffery's games in the future. Doesn't mean I'm questioning McJunkin's integrity... more that I'm recognizing that he's a human.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26089054/iowa-mccaffery-curses-official

Regarding whether I should be able to analyze and comment on referees' performance, given that I personally haven't "called games at this level and hence have an insider’s knowledge"... a few points:

1) The people that conducted and published the studies you reference - they were likely not all collegiate or higher referees themselves. But I'm sure glad their studies were permitted to be published!

2) If the only people that are allowed to comment on Big Ten basketball officiating are those that have officiated games at the Big Ten level or higher, then by all means let them comment - I'm all for transparency, and if they want to release reports explaining their calls, or their grades after review (if they receive such grades), that'd be great. The NBA does this to some degree. Big Ten doesn't release anything at all, to my knowledge. Rich Falk retired from the Big Ten around 10 years ago - I've been watching NU basketball for around 25 years, and I don't recall officiating ever being this bad. Maybe there's a connection there. Falk was replaced by Rick Boyages, an Ohio State guy. I'd love to know more about the current supervision of Big Ten refs and the reviews of NU games, or the refs I see repeatedly making poor calls against NU. If you have any facts here that you'd like to introduce here, I'm all ears. But I don't find "Rich Falk oversaw refs 10+ years ago" to be incredibly relevant to what I'm seeing in the officiating this season. But by all means, I'd love to hear an analysis of current Big Ten refs' hiring and oversight.

3) I am not suggesting that refs "have it in" for Northwestern because they are "cheating m*therf*ckers" in the words of Fran McCaffery, or because they have money on the games or anything like that - rather I'm pointing out that NU is routinely getting the worse end of officiating in the Big Ten, night in and night out. This thread is mostly about a statistical analysis, and I'll continue to update it. If it all "evens out" and NU starts getting even or even favorable calls... then I'll be the first to point it out. I've been waiting all Big Ten season.

 

[eastbaycat99]

I have been a referee but I'm not sure the relevance to this thread, and specifically the analysis comparing NU's treatment by referees OOC versus Big Ten this season.

As you point out there have been studies that have found that home teams generally get better calls than visiting teams. Referees are humans doing a job, and as humans they're not infallible, or immune to biases. They don't "have it in" for the away teams... rather they react to incentives and feel emotions. That's what the studies you reference demonstrated - that home teams get better calls because referees don't like being berated by home fans, nor do they like being berated by coaches. As others have pointed out in this thread, coaches know how to influence refs - some are better at it than others - but there's a reason that coaches interact with refs so much. Because it works!

Refs also don't like being berated in the media. Case in point: the Big Ten ref Steve McJunkins, that was recently confronted after an Iowa game and called a "Cheating motherf*cker!" and "a f*cking disgrace!" by Fran McCaffery... McJunkins was called out in dozens of national publications...USA Today, WaPo, ESPN...I think he'll remember that and it may affect him when he refs McCaffery's games in the future. Doesn't mean I'm questioning McJunkin's integrity... more that I'm recognizing that he's a human.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26089054/iowa-mccaffery-curses-official

Regarding whether I should be able to analyze and comment on referees' performance, given that I personally haven't "called games at this level and hence have an insider’s knowledge"... a few points:

1) The people that conducted and published the studies you reference - they were likely not all collegiate or higher referees themselves. But I'm sure glad their studies were permitted to be published!

2) If the only people that are allowed to comment on Big Ten basketball officiating are those that have officiated games at the Big Ten level or higher, then by all means let them comment - I'm all for transparency, and if they want to release reports explaining their calls, or their grades after review (if they receive such grades), that'd be great. The NBA does this to some degree. Big Ten doesn't release anything at all, to my knowledge. Rich Falk retired from the Big Ten around 10 years ago - I've been watching NU basketball for around 25 years, and I don't recall officiating ever being this bad. Maybe there's a connection there. Falk was replaced by Rick Boyages, an Ohio State guy. I'd love to know more about the current supervision of Big Ten refs and the reviews of NU games, or the refs I see repeatedly making poor calls against NU. If you have any facts here that you'd like to introduce here, I'm all ears. But I don't find "Rich Falk oversaw refs 10+ years ago" to be incredibly relevant to what I'm seeing in the officiating this season. But by all means, I'd love to hear an analysis of current Big Ten refs' hiring and oversight.

3) I am not suggesting that refs "have it in" for Northwestern because they are "cheating m*therf*ckers" in the words of Fran McCaffery, or because they have money on the games or anything like that - rather I'm pointing out that NU is routinely getting the worse end of officiating in the Big Ten, night in and night out. This thread is mostly about a statistical analysis, and I'll continue to update it. If it all "evens out" and NU starts getting even or even favorable calls... then I'll be the first to point it out. I've been waiting all Big Ten season.

In your prior post you gave a catalogue of what you thought were unfair calls against the Cats. That is not based on your stat compilation, but on your observation. I brought up the idea of experience and the difficulty of calling a game largely in response to that.

You are drawing an inference from your foul differential stat that the Cats are being called “differently”, presumably differently from their opponent. I’ve put forward the idea that they might be the poorer team, and suggested that the differential in play might account for that difference. Your persistence in attributing the differential to “getting the worse end of the officiating” but seem to not think that means the same as “having it in for the Cats”. I am a little puzzled as to the distinction.

If you think B1G refs are biased against the Cats based on your compilation, say so. Personally, I don’t think they are. If you think they are getting the worse of the calls and it is not based on either getting consistently beat on plays or bias, give an alternate theory, e.g. the general emphases regarding fouls on hand-checks disfavor theCats’ style of motion offense.

My theory as to why the Cats are at the bottom of the conference is:

1) Inability of guards to penetrate
2) Lack of a true power forward
3) General limitation in shooting efficiency off the dribble or on the move.

I leave officiating out of it.

 

[NUCat320]

This is the loseriest thread ever.

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

You are drawing an inference from your foul differential stat that the Cats are being called “differently”, presumably differently from their opponent. I’ve put forward the idea that they might be the poorer team, and suggested that the differential in play might account for that difference. Your persistence in attributing the differential to “getting the worse end of the officiating” but seem to not think that means the same as “having it in for the Cats”. I am a little puzzled as to the distinction.

If you think B1G refs are biased against the Cats based on your compilation, say so. Personally, I don’t think they are. If you think they are getting the worse of the calls and it is not based on either getting consistently beat on plays or bias, give an alternate theory, e.g. the general emphases regarding fouls on hand-checks disfavor theCats’ style of motion offense.

Refs "Having it in for X team" to me means they are consciously trying to hurt that team / help their opponent. As in, referees having an actual agenda they're trying to effectuate. I've never said anything of the sort.

"Getting the worse end of officiating" doesn't involve an agenda. Away teams often "get the worse end of officiating" but not because refs have an agenda against those teams, rather it's a bias, even a subconscious one. In other instances it can also be personal dynamics or a reaction to perceived consequences, etc. In a sport like basketball (which I have ref'd) it's often what the ref is looking for. An example from NU's games this year would be Aaron Falzon or Dererk Pardon getting called for a "wide stance" screen (feet wider than shoulder width)... that's happened a number of times in Big Ten play this year. Last night UIUC's center Bashievielli (or however it's spelled) sets screens with his feet ridiculously wide, and often leaned into the NU defender. Not called once.

You also mention hand-checks, which I find odd - if there was an emphasis on hand-checking then this would greatly favor NU! NU generally applies less ball pressure on dribbling guards than opponents, and if you watched last night's game, UIUC hand-checked far, far more than NU. Their guards were making contact with NU's guards right at halfcourt, forcing them to turn (Turner particularly) and keeping an arm on their back. All game. NU didn't apply any pressure that high until around the 2 minute mark, and generally didn't hand-check (not at nearly the rate of UIUC). Hand-checking wasn't the source of calls against NU. If you want an example of the bizarre types of calls that were going against NU, look at the foul on Greer that put UIUC in the bonus with ~11min left in the second half. The refs could have made the same call against UIUC at least 20+ times, but NU didn't get that call all night.

This cycle of marginal calls against NU, and those same calls overlooked against opponents, has repeated far too often during Big Ten play this year. It's not NU being the "poorer team" (PSU is a poor team, but they've attempted 353 FTs in BT play, to their opponents 342). Further, your "style of play" argument is difficult given that this same NU team with the same players and same coach were +48 in 11 games of OOC play. I'd always expect some shift to the negative in FT/G in Big Ten play, but this year has been much more dramatic than years past. When I have a bit more time I'll perform the analysis as I'm sure the numbers back this up.

 

[eastbaycat99]

Refs "Having it in for X team" to me means they are consciously trying to hurt that team / help their opponent. As in, referees having an actual agenda they're trying to effectuate. I've never said anything of the sort.

"Getting the worse end of officiating" doesn't involve an agenda. Away teams often "get the worse end of officiating" but not because refs have an agenda against those teams, rather it's a bias, even a subconscious one. In other instances it can also be personal dynamics or a reaction to perceived consequences, etc. In a sport like basketball (which I have ref'd) it's often what the ref is looking for. An example from NU's games this year would be Aaron Falzon or Dererk Pardon getting called for a "wide stance" screen (feet wider than shoulder width)... that's happened a number of times in Big Ten play this year. Last night UIUC's center Bashievielli (or however it's spelled) sets screens with his feet ridiculously wide, and often leaned into the NU defender. Not called once.

You also mention hand-checks, which I find odd - if there was an emphasis on hand-checking then this would greatly favor NU! NU generally applies less ball pressure on dribbling guards than opponents, and if you watched last night's game, UIUC hand-checked far, far more than NU. Their guards were making contact with NU's guards right at halfcourt, forcing them to turn (Turner particularly) and keeping an arm on their back. All game. NU didn't apply any pressure that high until around the 2 minute mark, and generally didn't hand-check (not at nearly the rate of UIUC). Hand-checking wasn't the source of calls against NU. If you want an example of the bizarre types of calls that were going against NU, look at the foul on Greer that put UIUC in the bonus with ~11min left in the second half. The refs could have made the same call against UIUC at least 20+ times, but NU didn't get that call all night.

This cycle of marginal calls against NU, and those same calls overlooked against opponents, has repeated far too often during Big Ten play this year. It's not NU being the "poorer team" (PSU is a poor team, but they've attempted 353 FTs in BT play, to their opponents 342). Further, your "style of play" argument is difficult given that this same NU team with the same players and same coach were +48 in 11 games of OOC play. I'd always expect some shift to the negative in FT/G in Big Ten play, but this year has been much more dramatic than years past. When I have a bit more time I'll perform the analysis as I'm sure the numbers back this up.

I am not going to post on this thread any more. You seem to have an agenda, and do not want to take any feedback. I hope you enjoy Cats basketball going forward and find an outlet for your particular viewpoint. Please reread your last post and consider whether it is objective, purposeful and in any way thoughtful.