Breakdown of NU's FT disparity in BT vs OOC

[Cat-Court-Jester]

That didn't take long, I looked at the entire Collins era, comparing OOC versus Big Ten.

As I suspected, this year is a huge outlier:

OOC versus Big Ten, FT differential per Game

13-14 NU 310 Opp 338 -1.86/G NU 286 Opp 342 -3.1/G -1.24 14W v 19L
14-15 NU 241 Opp 267 -1.85/G NU 236 Opp 304 -3.77/G -1.92 15W v 17L
15-16 NU 255 Opp 275 -1.42/G NU 273 Opp 350 -4.27/G -2.85 20W v 12L
16-17 NU 329 Opp 364 -1.94/G NU 308 Opp 368 -3.33/G -1.39 24W v 12L
17-18 NU 291 Opp 286 +0.35/G NU 247 Opp 335 -4.88/G -5.23 15W v 17L
18-19 NU 250 Opp 202 +4.36/G NU 265 Opp 343 -4.33/G -8.69 12W v 17L

Negative 8.69 Free Throws, that's per game! That's the differential from OOC play to Big Ten play. I knew this year would be more extreme than other years, but that's more than I would have imagined.

I don't have time to do this for every other Big Ten team, but if anyone can find a differential greater than -8.69, I'll gladly send you a reward.

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

I am not going to post on this thread any more. You seem to have an agenda, and do not want to take any feedback. I hope you enjoy Cats basketball going forward and find an outlet for your particular viewpoint. Please reread your last post and consider whether it is objective, purposeful and in any way thoughtful.

I also prefer the objective to the subjective. Any time you're discussing the subjective there are going to be differing viewpoints. But the stats I just compiled are NOT subjective, in any way. Those stats bear out what I've seen this year.

I wish I enjoyed NU basketball more this year, or I should say... I wish I cared less. I'll work on that.

 

[eastbaycat99]

[QUOTE="Cat-Court-Jester, post: 608415, member: 11861"
"UIUC hand-checked far, far more than NU. Their guards were making contact with NU's guards right at halfcourt, forcing them to turn (Turner particularly) and keeping an arm on their back. All game. NU didn't apply any pressure that high until around the 2 minute mark, and generally didn't hand-check (not at nearly the rate of UIUC). Hand-checking wasn't the source of calls against NU. If you want an example of the bizarre types of calls that were going against NU, look at the foul on Greer that put UIUC in the bonus with ~11min left in the second half. The refs could have made the same call against UIUC at least 20+ times, but NU didn't get that call all night.

This cycle of marginal calls against NU, and those same calls overlooked against opponents, has repeated far too often during Big Ten play this year./QUOTE]

Nothing subjective there.

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

Nothing subjective there.

I completely agree, what I said there was subjective! My point is that the stats are not subjective, at all. They are 100% objective.

There will always be differing viewpoints on any subjective matter... so just disregard everything I've said in this thread that's subjective, throw it out, I'll delete it if you'd like. What you are left with is...

Historically - at least in the recent history of the Big Ten - we are seeing quite possibly the largest differential for any team, when you analyze the OOC officiating versus Big Ten officiating. The numbers are shocking. Focus on that. Analyze that. Forget I said anything else.

 

[CappyNU]

That didn't take long, I looked at the entire Collins era, comparing OOC versus Big Ten.

As I suspected, this year is a huge outlier:

OOC versus Big Ten, FT differential per Game

13-14 NU 310 Opp 338 -1.86/G NU 286 Opp 342 -3.1/G -1.24 14W v 19L
14-15 NU 241 Opp 267 -1.85/G NU 236 Opp 304 -3.77/G -1.92 15W v 17L
15-16 NU 255 Opp 275 -1.42/G NU 273 Opp 350 -4.27/G -2.85 20W v 12L
16-17 NU 329 Opp 364 -1.94/G NU 308 Opp 368 -3.33/G -1.39 24W v 12L
17-18 NU 291 Opp 286 +0.35/G NU 247 Opp 335 -4.88/G -5.23 15W v 17L
18-19 NU 250 Opp 202 +4.36/G NU 265 Opp 343 -4.33/G -8.69 12W v 17L

Negative 8.69 Free Throws, that's per game! That's the differential from OOC play to Big Ten play. I knew this year would be more extreme than other years, but that's more than I would have imagined.

I don't have time to do this for every other Big Ten team, but if anyone can find a differential greater than -8.69, I'll gladly send you a reward.

What sources did you use? This seems like the sort of thing I'll waste time doing.

 

[eastbaycat99]

I completely agree, what I said there was subjective! My point is that the stats are not subjective, at all. They are 100% objective.

There will always be differing viewpoints on any subjective matter... so just disregard everything I've said in this thread that's subjective, throw it out, I'll delete it if you'd like. What you are left with is...

Historically - at least in the recent history of the Big Ten - we are seeing quite possibly the largest differential for any team, when you analyze the OOC officiating versus Big Ten officiating. The numbers are shocking. Focus on that. Analyze that. Forget I said anything else.

And I offer a perfectly simple explanation for your statistic:

1) Most of the OOC games were against weaker teams. The Cats’ NET rank is 95. The average OOC rank is 180. The P5 OOC rank is 95. The average NET of NU’s B1G schedule is 48. (Objective observation). Weaker teams generally foul stronger teams more. (Hypothesis).

2) Almost all the OOC games were early in the season. As the scouting reports have built up, teams have learned the the Cats’ guards can’t penetrate and adjusted accordingly. (Subjective observation).The inability to drive, while most other teams in conference can, leads to a disparity in fouls. (Hypothesis).

3) The Cats frontline is generally smaller than the other teams in the B1G. (Subjective observation that could be objective if I wasn’t too lazy to go down each roster and verify). This was not the case in OOC (though it is related to point 1 and also subjective due to my laziness). Smaller teams foul more trying to hold position. (Hypothesis)

My unified theory is that the Cats’ deficit in conference games relative to OOC games is that in conference they are playing better, bigger, better prepared teams than they did in the OOC.

If I understand your Hypothesis, it is that B1G refs are calling the Cats games “differently” than OOC refs did.

I appreciate your removing of individual “bad” calls and rants about Fran McCaffery from your argument.

With respect to historical data for prior years:

1) This is the poorest NU has been in conference in that period - 14th in standing, 13th in power ranking

2) In all prior years listed, the Cats had a penetrating guard

3) except for last year, the Cats had a larger front line.

Note that the combination of 2 and 3 is a plausible explanation of the incremental differential increases over the last 2 years, and is probably in combination driving my first point.

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

Hmm.. eastbaycat, I'm starting to think you're missing the significance from the 6 years of data, and indeed the entire lesson that that is drawn from the table.

The point is not that a FT differential generally decreases from the OOC schedule to the Big Ten schedule - that happens every year to some degree, as one would expect. Tougher opponents. The point is that when viewed over a sample of years, this year is the extreme outlier. Really the last two years show a troubling trend, but this year is by far the significant outlier. The average of the 5 years before is -2.52. This year, -8.69, is 3.5x that average.

Most of what you say is true every year, and therefore not significant or relevant. In other words, it doesn't explain why this year was an outlier.

"Most of the OOC games were against weaker teams" - True every year. This year's OOC schedule was harder than early in Collins' tenure. So this doesn't explain why this year is an outlier.

"Almost all the OOC games were early in the season" - Ya don't say True every year. Although I'll point out that this year for the first time we played very early BT games - so if anything your statement is less true compared to years past. But regardless, every year OOC is before BT, so this does not explain why this year is an outlier.

"Teams in conference are better, bigger etc" Same as point #1, and true every year.

So all of the above is true every year, and none of the above offers an explanation as to why this year is the outlier.

The rest of your analysis looks like it's aiming to explain why NU would be drawing fewer fouls (you say the team's smaller or lacks a penetrating guard) but that doesn't explain why there would be a difference within the same season. Those same NU players were playing OOC games!

The point is that in this 2018-19 season the calls - same team, same players - have been very different in OOC games versus Big Ten.

So what could be an explanation: A team's performance falling off dramatically would be a potential explanation (and of course FT differential plays into that)... but more to the point a team's effort falling off dramatically could really explain it. And that's a scary thought, because a team's effort falling off in the second half of a season usually means they've quit on a coach. I haven't seen that from what I've seen.

I continue to think the cats treatment by Big Ten officials is a major factor, but more analysis is needed. I'll do another team now, let's say... UIUC. I'll go back six years as I did with NU.

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

What sources did you use? This seems like the sort of thing I'll waste time doing.

I manually tabulate as I don't know of any site that would track this. Espn.com

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

Well that's interesting... here is UIUC:

Illinois OOC BT
13-14 UIUC 303 Opp 249 3.17/G UIUC 303 Opp 341 -2.1/G -5.27 20Wv15L
14-15 UIUC 288 Opp 244 2.93/G UIUC 298 Opp 305 -.38/G -3.23 19Wv14L
15-16 UIUC 288 Opp 230 3.62/G UIUC 319 Opp 304 0.83/G -2.79 15Wv19L
16-17 UIUC 344 Opp 289 3.23/G UIUC 299 Opp 308 -0.5/G -3.73 20Wv15L
17-18 UIUC 323 Opp 333 -0.72/G UIUC 330 Opp 469 -7.72/G -7.0 14Wv18L
18-19 UIUC 180 Opp 271 -8.27/G UIUC 350 Opp 440 -5.0/G 3.27 11Wv18L

Interesting to see a FT differential reach 7 once. 2017-18... Underwood seemed to have some players (Mark Smith) ready to quit on him late in the season that year. The last three games alone the team had 103 FTs against, -58 differential for those three games, so that was a lot of it. Really interesting though.

But in 12 seasons now analyzed, this year's NU season is still the biggest outlier.

 

[eastbaycat99]

Hmm.. eastbaycat, I'm starting to think you're missing the significance from the 6 years of data, and indeed the entire lesson that that is drawn from the table.

The point is not that a FT differential generally decreases from the OOC schedule to the Big Ten schedule - that happens every year to some degree, as one would expect. Tougher opponents. The point is that when viewed over a sample of years, this year is the extreme outlier. Really the last two years show a troubling trend, but this year is by far the significant outlier. The average of the 5 years before is -2.52. This year, -8.69, is 3.5x that average.

Most of what you say is true every year, and therefore not significant or relevant. In other words, it doesn't explain why this year was an outlier.

"Most of the OOC games were against weaker teams" - True every year. This year's OOC schedule was harder than early in Collins' tenure. So this doesn't explain why this year is an outlier.

"Almost all the OOC games were early in the season" - Ya don't say True every year. Although I'll point out that this year for the first time we played very early BT games - so if anything your statement is less true compared to years past. But regardless, every year OOC is before BT, so this does not explain why this year is an outlier.

"Teams in conference are better, bigger etc" Same as point #1, and true every year.

So all of the above is true every year, and none of the above offers an explanation as to why this year is the outlier.

The rest of your analysis looks like it's aiming to explain why NU would be drawing fewer fouls (you say the team's smaller or lacks a penetrating guard) but that doesn't explain why there would be a difference within the same season. Those same NU players were playing OOC games!

The point is that in this 2018-19 season the calls - same team, same players - have been very different in OOC games versus Big Ten.

So what could be an explanation: A team's performance falling off dramatically would be a potential explanation (and of course FT differential plays into that)... but more to the point a team's effort falling off dramatically could really explain it. And that's a scary thought, because a team's effort falling off in the second half of a season usually means they've quit on a coach. I haven't seen that from what I've seen.

I continue to think the cats treatment by Big Ten officials is a major factor, but more analysis is needed. I'll do another team now, let's say... UIUC. I'll go back six years as I did with NU.

Really, this is my last post on this.

Differences this year: the B1G is the best it has been for years. The last five or six years, the Cats have been lower middle to middle of conference. This year they are last. That might explain part of why this year is an outlier in your analysis: maybe the Cats are not that much worse relative to OOC, but the are worse relative to B1G, hence more of a differential. Furthermore, it is possible the better OOC teams were not as good this year relative to prior years. You are generally dealing with about 5 or 6 P5 teams in OOC, and schedule difficulty would seem a significant variable. The OOC against P5 is a small set of data, and hard to draw inference year over year. I have neither the time nor interest to do a thorough analysis, but the point I made in my earlier post that the average NET of this year’s P5 OOC is 95 compared to an average B1G NET of 48 may be a place to look. If in prior years the rating differential was smaller, it could be significant within the overall limitations of the data set.
With respect to the idea that teams adjusted starting early in conference, it is important to note that without BMac, the Cats’ offense is different this year relative to prior years. Teams would not have much scouting material this year early relative to what they had in earlier years. I watched the early games, and to my eye the defenses gave more space to the Cats guards. Maybe I am wrong. It is certainly plausible that about 10 games into the season, opponents figured out the Cats’ weakness. This would include the bulk of the OOC.
Finally, with respect to size differential, I noted that the Cats were smaller the last 2 years, the B1G generally has had teams that have B1G front players relative to OOC and that could be juicing the difference the last 2 years when compared to prior years.

Or it could be the refs in the B1G have it in for the worst team in the conference. Maybe you are right.

 

[CappyNU]

Well that's interesting... here is UIUC:

Illinois OOC BT
13-14 UIUC 303 Opp 249 3.17/G UIUC 303 Opp 341 -2.1/G -5.27 20Wv15L
14-15 UIUC 288 Opp 244 2.93/G UIUC 298 Opp 305 -.38/G -3.23 19Wv14L
15-16 UIUC 288 Opp 230 3.62/G UIUC 319 Opp 304 0.83/G -2.79 15Wv19L
16-17 UIUC 344 Opp 289 3.23/G UIUC 299 Opp 308 -0.5/G -3.73 20Wv15L
17-18 UIUC 323 Opp 333 -0.72/G UIUC 330 Opp 469 -7.72/G -7.0 14Wv18L
18-19 UIUC 180 Opp 271 -8.27/G UIUC 350 Opp 440 -5.0/G 3.27 11Wv18L

Interesting to see a FT differential reach 7 once. 2017-18... Underwood seemed to have some players (Mark Smith) ready to quit on him late in the season that year. The last three games alone the team had 103 FTs against, -58 differential for those three games, so that was a lot of it. Really interesting though.

But in 12 seasons now analyzed, this year's NU season is still the biggest outlier.

MSU, a team that I imagine everyone assumes always gets the calls as a "big boy" team in the conference, had a -6 differential between OOC (+2.00) and conference games (-4.00) in 2016, the year they went to the Final Four as a 7 seed.

 

[Username Not Available]

No one wants to take the time to do this, but given the quantity of variables in the data, I think you’d have to do an analysis of actual games and fouls and non-calls to have anything other than general speculation.

Pick a game, find two or three objective (or at least opposed) people. Agree on what constitutes a foul, then watch the games, rewinding/reviewing as needed, and count the actual numbers of fouls and non-calls for each team.

Do that for the entire season and you might have reasonably solid ground to make a case for what the numbers mean. Without that kind of minimal effort though, this is all just weak data and motivated reasoning on both sides.

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

Today was Purdue 23 FT to NU 10 FT. And to anyone that watched the game, it was painfully obvious that NU was getting called for ticky tack stuff, Purdue was mugging NU, especially in the post, and getting away with it all game long.

This is a quote from an impartial fan...

Purdue is literally mugging your players and NW gets called if they breathe on somebody. I have no idea why the Big Ten has such a bone for Purdue?

Good to know impartial fans see it too.

That tall, bald ref... I don't even know what to say. He's screwed us in the past, as well... I'd love to go back and just look at his foul differential. Wish I had the time. If the Big Ten was as great at oversight as some would lead you to believe, these stats of fouls called by team would exist. I doubt they do.

Ok, I won't say anything more subjective, I'll keep this to objective facts only.

I'll compile and post the final numbers for NU below - and then proceed to see if any other Big Ten teams. I wanted to wait until the Big Ten season finished until I did the rest of the Big Ten. But I really wanted to see if any other Big Ten team in recent history has had a season where they've been officiated like NU was this year.

So far I have analyzed 12 seasons and not one has had the OOC v Big Ten FT differential that NU experienced this year.

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

Done, NU is updated and I also did Penn State, because they have the same record this year, and I figured they have been pretty close in terms of record with NU the last 6 years. I'll post that below - spoiler alert, in the past 6 seasons Penn State has not once had a FT differential like NU's in 2018-19.

A few notes: Wednesday night against OSU at one point it was OSU 12 FT to NU 4 FT, then late in the game it was OSU 17 FT to NU 7 FT, before OSU fouled NU 6 straight times to shorten the game, and it finished OSU 17 FT to NU 13 FT.

I'll also note that in the NU v OSU pretty early in the first half I started counting the drives to the rim by both teams, because I noticed that NU was driving to the rim more than OSU. I counted NU driving to the rim 9 more times than OSU. OSU still shot more FTs. But this idea that NU doesn't drive to the rim at the rates of its opponents... not necessarily true.

So, keeping this 100% objective, I went back and recalculated NU's numbers including the last two games, please see below.

NU - OOC v BT FT Differential/G

13-14 NU 310 Opp 338 -1.86/G NU 286 Opp 342 -3.1/G -1.24 14W v 19L
14-15 NU 241 Opp 267 -1.85/G NU 236 Opp 304 -3.77/G -1.92 15W v 17L
15-16 NU 255 Opp 275 -1.42/G NU 273 Opp 350 -4.27/G -2.85 20W v 12L
16-17 NU 329 Opp 364 -1.94/G NU 308 Opp 368 -3.33/G -1.39 24W v 12L
17-18 NU 291 Opp 286 +0.35/G NU 247 Opp 335 -4.88/G -5.23 15W v 17L
18-19 NU 250 Opp 202 +4.36/G NU 288 Opp 383 -4.75/G -9.11 13W v 18L

Penn State - OOC v BT FT Differential/G

13-14 PSU 391 Opp 403 -0.75/G PSU 363 Opp 479 -6.44/G -5.69 16W v 18L
14-15 PSU 369 Opp 384 -0.95 PSU 287 Opp 396 -6.05/G -5 18W v 16L
15-16 PSU 301 Opp 333 -2.29/G PSU 320 Opp 408 -4.88/G -2.59 16W v 16L
16-17 PSU 292 Opp 261 -2.066/G PSU 255 Opp 249 +0.33 2.396 15W v 18L
17-18 PSU 438 Opp 353 +3.66 PSU 284 Opp 347 -3.5/G -7.16 26W v 13L
18-19 PSU 213 Opp 195 +1.63 PSU 251 Opp 260 -.47/G -2.1 13W v 17L

Interesting that NU had 383 FTs awarded to Big Ten Opponents, most in recent history.

In the larger historical analysis: So we are now up to 18 seasons. Also note: Considering that UIUC actually had a better FT differential versus the Big Ten than versus OOC this year, there's no reason to go back and recalculate that one!

Conclusion thus far: I've now analyzed 18 seasons of Big Ten teams. Not once has a Big Ten team had an OOC v Big Ten FT differential exceeding what NU experienced this year.

I'll continue my analysis.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Done, NU is updated and I also did Penn State, because they have the same record this year, and I figured they have been pretty close in terms of record with NU the last 6 years. I'll post that below - spoiler alert, in the past 6 seasons Penn State has not once had a FT differential like NU's in 2018-19.

A few notes: Wednesday night against OSU at one point it was OSU 12 FT to NU 4 FT, then late in the game it was OSU 17 FT to NU 7 FT, before OSU fouled NU 6 straight times to shorten the game, and it finished OSU 17 FT to NU 13 FT.

I'll also note that in the NU v OSU pretty early in the first half I started counting the drives to the rim by both teams, because I noticed that NU was driving to the rim more than OSU. I counted NU driving to the rim 9 more times than OSU. OSU still shot more FTs. But this idea that NU doesn't drive to the rim at the rates of its opponents... not necessarily true.

So, keeping this 100% objective, I went back and recalculated NU's numbers including the last two games, please see below.

NU - OOC v BT FT Differential/G

13-14 NU 310 Opp 338 -1.86/G NU 286 Opp 342 -3.1/G -1.24 14W v 19L
14-15 NU 241 Opp 267 -1.85/G NU 236 Opp 304 -3.77/G -1.92 15W v 17L
15-16 NU 255 Opp 275 -1.42/G NU 273 Opp 350 -4.27/G -2.85 20W v 12L
16-17 NU 329 Opp 364 -1.94/G NU 308 Opp 368 -3.33/G -1.39 24W v 12L
17-18 NU 291 Opp 286 +0.35/G NU 247 Opp 335 -4.88/G -5.23 15W v 17L
18-19 NU 250 Opp 202 +4.36/G NU 288 Opp 383 -4.75/G -9.11 13W v 18L

Penn State - OOC v BT FT Differential/G

13-14 PSU 391 Opp 403 -0.75/G PSU 363 Opp 479 -6.44/G -5.69 16W v 18L
14-15 PSU 369 Opp 384 -0.95 PSU 287 Opp 396 -6.05/G -5 18W v 16L
15-16 PSU 301 Opp 333 -2.29/G PSU 320 Opp 408 -4.88/G -2.59 16W v 16L
16-17 PSU 292 Opp 261 -2.066/G PSU 255 Opp 249 +0.33 2.396 15W v 18L
17-18 PSU 438 Opp 353 +3.66 PSU 284 Opp 347 -3.5/G -7.16 26W v 13L
18-19 PSU 213 Opp 195 +1.63 PSU 251 Opp 260 -.47/G -2.1 13W v 17L

Interesting that NU had 383 FTs awarded to Big Ten Opponents, most in recent history.

In the larger historical analysis: So we are now up to 18 seasons. Also note: Considering that UIUC actually had a better FT differential versus the Big Ten than versus OOC this year, there's no reason to go back and recalculate that one!

Conclusion thus far: I've now analyzed 18 seasons of Big Ten teams. Not once has a Big Ten team had an OOC v Big Ten FT differential exceeding what NU experienced this year.

I'll continue my analysis.

Why do waste your time with this? EBC is a forner ref and has defended the officiating every single time. You aren’t go to change his mind.

I think there have been a few very poorly officiated games this year. Some of the worst I remember seeing. However, as bad as it was, I don’t think NU wins more than a couple more games in conference with better officiating. We just weren’t very good this season.

 

[mikewebb68]

Why do waste your time with this? EBC is a forner ref and has defended the officiating every single time. You aren’t go to change his mind.

I think there have been a few very poorly officiated games this year. Some of the worst I remember seeing. However, as bad as it was, I don’t think NU wins more than a couple more games in conference with better officiating. We just weren’t very good this season.

This has been easily the worst officiated season in the BIG inn decades. Who knew when the BIG decided not to renew TV Teddy's contract that it would actually get worse? The Bielien ejection for no good reason DURING HALFTIME (and a coach that never get's even one T to boot), to the ref that wanted to eject one of our fans and took it out on our team when we refused, to the ridiculous officiating in the OSU-Iowa game where both coaches and a coaches son got T's, it has been just a terribad year for the refs in the BIG...former ref or not, if you can't see that, you've been just plain blind, imo.

 

[eastbaycat99]

This has been easily the worst officiated season in the BIG inn decades. Who knew when the BIG decided not to renew TV Teddy's contract that it would actually get worse? The Bielien ejection for no good reason DURING HALFTIME (and a coach that never get's even one T to boot), to the ref that wanted to eject one of our fans and took it out on our team when we refused, to the ridiculous officiating in the OSU-Iowa game where both coaches and a coaches son got T's, it has been just a terribad year for the refs in the BIG...former ref or not, if you can't see that, you've been just plain blind, imo.

I really did not want to repost in this thread, but this post compels me to. Officials blow calls, and sometimes blown calls influence outcomes. There are differentials in the quality of officiating within a league or conference, which is why there are review processes. My main problem is the implication that there is a general bias among the officials in the B1G against any particular team, in this case, the Cats. If you want to say officiating overall has not been good, that is your prerogative. Please don’t use that belief (which may or not be accurate) to draw an inference of bias. Fans of a given team always notice and remember missed calls against their team. Respect the people who do the job of officiating, because they are generally skillful, dedicated, and working hard to make games possible.

 

[mikewebb68]

I really did not want to repost in this thread, but this post compels me to. Officials blow calls, and sometimes blown calls influence outcomes. There are differentials in the quality of officiating within a league or conference, which is why there are review processes. My main problem is the implication that there is a general bias among the officials in the B1G against any particular team, in this case, the Cats. If you want to say officiating overall has not been good, that is your prerogative. Please don’t use that belief (which may or not be accurate) to draw an inference of bias. Fans of a given team always notice and remember missed calls against their team. Respect the people who do the job of officiating, because they are generally skillful, dedicated, and working hard to make games possible.

What in the world did I say in my post where you could possible come up with this response?

Me: The BIG officials had a miserable season
You: The implication is, there's bias...
Me: What in the world? The implication and the statement is that there was crappy officiating!

 

[NJCat]

The Bielien ejection for no good reason DURING HALFTIME (and a coach that never get's even one T to boot),.

The Beilein ejection was one of the worst I have seen. Was watching the game and had no clue what John could have said or done to get T'd up twice. He's one of the nicest coaches in the B1G.

It wasn't like he ran out on the court while a play was in progress and berated the ref.

;-)

 

[mikewebb68]

The Beilein ejection was one of the worst I have seen. Was watching the game and had no clue what John could have said or done to get T'd up twice. He's one of the nicest coaches in the B1G.

It wasn't like he ran out on the court while a play was in progress and berated the ref.

;-)

Exactly. Literally some of the crappiest officiating I've ever seen to throw Beilien out in that spot. Made the Gonzaga no-goaltend call look like magnificent officiating by comaparison.

In before some ref-lover says I must be biased....

 

[NJCat]

Exactly. Literally some of the crappiest officiating I've ever seen to throw Beilien out in that spot. Made the Gonzaga no-goaltend call look like magnificent officiating by comaparison.

In before some ref-lover says I must be biased....

However, one can NEVER feel bad about a T on Fran McCaffrey. Easily the biggest turd in the B1G. His own school suspended him after his tirade. Total douche.

 

[mikewebb68]

However, one can NEVER feel bad about a T on Fran McCaffrey. Easily the biggest turd in the B1G. His own school suspended him after his tirade. Total douche.

Agreed, Fran deserves every T he gets. But the T on the OSU coach was a joke, and the T on his Fran's son was a bigger joke. Then, Fran gets a T after that basically for doing what he had been doing THE ENTIRE game. If you're not going to T him up for that behavior early, don't wait until crunch time...

 

[eastbaycat99]

Mikewebb68 saud: "it has been just a terribad year for the refs in the BIG...former ref or not, if you can't see that, you've been just plain blind, imo.[/QUOTE]
In answer to your question what did you say, this is it. I've commented on this thread because it was about perceived bias in calls against the Cats, which I feel is unfounded. You posted about bad calls in the conference and implied I was blind, it would appear. I have not said anything in this thread that indicates that refs don't make mistakes. If the comment wasn't directed to me in reference to your response to PurplePileDriver who referenced me, fine.

 

[mikewebb68]

Mikewebb68 saud: "it has been just a terribad year for the refs in the BIG...former ref or not, if you can't see that, you've been just plain blind, imo.

In answer to your question what did you say, this is it. I've commented on this thread because it was about perceived bias in calls against the Cats, which I feel is unfounded. You posted about bad calls in the conference and implied I was blind, it would appear. I have not said anything in this thread that indicates that refs don't make mistakes. If the comment wasn't directed to me in reference to your response to PurplePileDriver who referenced me, fine.[/QUOTE]

OK, so do you think this was a good year for officiating in the BIG? If you think that, then you and I have been watching completely different games.

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

Why do waste your time with this? EBC is a forner ref and has defended the officiating every single time. You aren’t go to change his mind.

I think there have been a few very poorly officiated games this year. Some of the worst I remember seeing. However, as bad as it was, I don’t think NU wins more than a couple more games in conference with better officiating. We just weren’t very good this season.

I'm passionate about NU Basketball and I enjoy statistics, and this happens to be at the confluence.

Justice has also been the mission of my life, and so I suppose that interest intersects as well. I like to believe in the fairness of competition, and in my 20+ years of watching the Cats I've never even thought to question the fairness of the competition. But this year has been... interesting. And it's been fascinating to see that the statistics are as shocking as what I've been seeing on the court this season.

So those are the reasons I'm going to continue the analysis. I have no illusions that I'll change eastbaycat's mind and that's not my hope or goal in any way.

Now back to the analysis, I just finished Purdue and MSU...

 

[mikewebb68]

And another horrendously officiated BIG game in East Lansing. Michigan might as well have been playing 5 on 7...

 

[Cat-Court-Jester]

Two more Big Ten teams analyzed

Purdue - OOC v BT FT Differential/G

13-14 PU 340 Opp 334 0.42/G PU 393 Opp 438 -2.5/G -2.92 15W v 17L
14-15 PU 365 Opp 318 2.93/G PU 402 Opp 399 0.16/G -2.77 21W v 13L
15-16 PU 374 Opp 277 5.7/G PU 349 Opp 314 1.94/G +3.76 26W v 9L
16-17 PU 339 Opp 214 7.35/G PU 341 Opp 277 3.55/G +3.8 27W v 8L
17-18 PU 418 Opp 295 6.47/G PU 329 Opp 236 5.166/G +1.3 30W v 7L
18-19 PU 186 Opp 182 0.36/G PU 368 Opp 366 0.1/G -0.26 22W v 8L

Michigan State - OOC v BT FT Differential/G
13-14 MSU 398 Opp 420 -1.1/G MSU 330 Opp 409 -4.38/G -3.28 29W v 9L
14-15 MSU 371 Opp 433 -2.95/G MSU 343 Opp 387 -2.44/G +0.51 27Wv12L
15-16 MSU 330 Opp 325 +0.29/G MSU 293 Opp 365 -4/G -4.29 29W v 6L
16-17 MSU 329 Opp 324 +0.29/G MSU 317 Opp 380 -3.5/G -3.79 20W v 15L
17-18 MSU 330 Opp 329 +0.06/G MSU 386 Opp 318 +3.77 +3.71 30 W v 5L
18-19 MSU 226 Opp 225 +0.09/G MSU 402 Opp 326 +3.8/G +3.71 25W v 6L

Some really fascinating trends within these. But in the end...

Conclusion thus far: I've now analyzed 30 seasons of Big Ten teams. Not once has a Big Ten team had an OOC v Big Ten FT differential exceeding what NU experienced this year.

It's been quite a while since I've calculated a P value, but if anyone wants to chime in I'll happily accept feedback: when this analysis has a full data set (which will be 84 seasons, with a slight complication that Rutgers and Maryland joined the Big Ten in 2014-2015, so really 82 seasons), I'd like to calculate the probability that the -9.11 FT differential value that NU experienced this year could have been achieved at random, given my data set and the distribution of values. Or it's possible this would actually be Bayes factor K under Bayes theorem? Haven't done these calculations since the late 90s