Breaking down the Cats and Cards

[UKErik]

For the first time in 104 years, Louisville has a chance to take the series lead. In 1912, UK won the inaugural game between the schools then won the next six. After a 70 year "series break", the Governor's Cup was created. UK won the first game back in 1994. Since, U of L has dominated, winning 14 of 21 matchups. The Cards bring a five game winning streak into this year's game, their longest such streak of the series. In 2014, the Cats were probably a dropped INT away from winning at PJCS. Last year, UK jumped out to a 24-7 lead only to see U of L run off 31 straight points. This year's matchup looks somewhat even on paper (if you believe in recruiting rankings) minus one HUGE exception. Louisville has the best player in college football lined up behind center. How does Kentucky overcome the presence of Lamar Jackson? And which U of L shows up? Will the Cats catch a break and face the Cardinal team that struggled against Duke, Virginia, Houston, and for most of the night against Wake Forest? Or will we get the team that mauled Florida State and took Clemson to the buzzer in Death Valley? Mark Stoops and staff are to be commended for turning the program around. UK has gone from 0-8 in the league to 4-4 and 6-5 overall. Still, Stoops is void of a truly special win. Does that change this weekend?

Line: Kentucky + 26 (5Dimes)

Series: Tied 14-14

Television/Game Time: ESPN/Noon Eastern

Kentucky offense vs. Louisville defense: Advantage Louisville
Kentucky enters play with the 17th ranked rushing offense in America. U of L has the 6th ranked rush defense (and #7 total defense). Something has to give. For the Cats, you have to wonder if they'll be able to run the football against this defense w/o the threat of a passing game. UK has played two other opponents with top 20 rush defenses (Alabama and Florida). UK struggled mightily against both (though both were early in the season). I'll be surprised if the "wildcat" enjoys much success. You never know when big plays are going to happen, so maybe Boom or Benny break free a few times. I doubt UK is able to sustain long drives though. If Stephen Johnson plays his best game as a Cat, that could change. Certainly, Kentucky has enough weapons at WR/TE to challenge Louisville. Unfortunately, UK's passing game has been woefully inconsistent. U of L's defense has only played three top 50 offenses this season (unless I missed one). The Cards held both Florida State and Houston below their season average. Clemson put up over 500 yards on U of L. UK's offensive line matches up fairly well with the U of L defensive front, but the Cards front seven is very good. Athletic. Best guess, this matchup is all about Stephen Johnson and the UK passing game. Really, I look at this matchup a lot like I did Georgia. UK will have some success on the ground, but not enough to win the game. They have to be able to throw the football. This matchup is all about UK's passing game, IMO. If it succeeds, Kentucky has a shot. If not, forget about it.

Kentucky defense vs. Louisville offense: Significant Advantage Louisville
The Cards bring the nations #1 overall offense into Saturday's Governor's Cup. QB Lamar Jackson, the likely Heisman Trophy winner, is an absolute nightmare for just about everyone. In last years game vs. UK, Jackson was pretty much untouchable. The U of L QB ran for 186 yards on only 17 carries. Based on what UK looked like a couple of weeks ago against Joshua Dobbs, I think it's fair to say the defense is "probably" in for a LONG Saturday. Are there reasons for optimism? Well, the Cards OL looked absolutely awful against Houston. Louisville has struggled at times against mediocre competition (UVA, Duke, and Wake for example), so there's that. Jackson's completion percentage of 57% isn't stellar, so maybe UK can force U of L into passing situations (while keeping him in the pocket on 3rd down). Realistically though, UK is in huge trouble with this matchup. Kentucky has shown almost zero ability to stop a good running game. U of L's rush game is elite. I could go into more detail about U of L's other skill players (like Quick, Radcliff, Hikutini, etc...), but this matchup is all about Lamar Jackson. Can UK keep him in between the tackles? Will Stoops sell out against the run and hope Jackson struggles with accuracy? Honestly, there isn't an ideal plan of attack. U of L has gotten outstanding production across the board. UK's front seven struggles to pressure opposing backfields. I've seen very little "creativity" from this defense, very little pressure at the LOS. Unless Jackson rolls an ankle or something, U of L is going to put up monster numbers. Hopefully, UK can end a few U of L possessions with turnovers, penalties, or drops.

Special Teams: Advantage Louisville
U of L gets the edge here for one reason...punting. UK's punting has gone from bad to comical. There are probably a handful of junior high schools (at least) that have a better punter than Kentucky. UK's offense isn't going to move the football as well as U of L's, so pinning U of L deep and at least giving them a long field to navigate would be nice. That isn't going to happen on Saturday. Kentucky could REALLY use a couple of breaks in the kicking game.

Kentucky will win if...they possess the football for about 40 minutes and score 45+ points. The passing game has to be the best that it's been. The defense has to do SOMETHING to end possessions.

Louisville will win if...Lamar Jackson plays like Lamar Jackson while the defense keeps UK in 3rd and intermediate/long. UK's passing game hasn't demonstrated ANY ability to produce consistently. The Cards should load up the box and make Stephen Johnson beat them.

Prediction...Louisville 52 Kentucky 28...UK has a shot to cover that mammoth spread, but that's where my optimism ends. Over 11 games, UK has proven that they're incapable of playing a "clean game." The defense is incapable of defending dual threat QB's. The offense makes too many mistakes. To win this game, UK will have to be someone that they haven't been all season. They'll also need a monster game from Stephen Johnson. Johnson has proven to be tough as nails, but that doesn't help much with accuracy in the passing game. Hope like hell I'm wrong!!!

Previous Picks
(9-2 S/U, 6-5 ATS)
Kentucky 31 Southern Mississippi 27
Florida 23 Kentucky10
Kentucky 48 New Mexico State 13
Kentucky 31 South Carolina 26
Alabama 55 Kentucky 7
Kentucky 23 Vanderbilt 13
Kentucky 20 Mississippi State 17
Kentucky 41 Missouri 31
Kentucky 24 Georgia 17
Tennessee 34 Kentucky 27
Kentucky 70 Austin Peay 10

GBB!!!

 

[Kooky Kats_anon]

Agreed.

After we take our whipping, I will be crying inside - wishing we the Easy Rider on our sideline instead of theirs.

 

[Mr Schwump]

Yeah, UK's incapable of pressuring the QB on D and makes too many mistakes on O...bad combination. UL wants a rout, Petrino is under pressure to deliver it, fans expect it, Jurich expects it and this may be his best chance for it. 48-21 UL.

 

[cardinalfan123]

It's been a while since either fanbase enjoyed a blowout. UK's biggest margin of victory in the last decade was 25 points in 2008, Louisville's was 18 in 2012. Every other game during that span has been within two scores.

The Houston game has me discouraged because I know UK is going to come out the same way and play way above their heads. We've had so many issues with turnovers and a porous OL that I'd be shocked if it wasn't close through at least the third quarter

 

[wobycat]

Kentucky shouldn't even bother coming. Good grief. This is the mindset of uk football. It's absolutely disgusting.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

For the first time in 104 years, Louisville has a chance to take the series lead. In 1912, UK won the inaugural game between the schools then won the next six. After a 70 year "series break", the Governor's Cup was created. UK won the first game back in 1994. Since, U of L has dominated, winning 14 of 21 matchups. The Cards bring a five game winning streak into this year's game, their longest such streak of the series. In 2014, the Cats were probably a dropped INT away from winning at PJCS. Last year, UK jumped out to a 24-7 lead only to see U of L run off 31 straight points. This year's matchup looks somewhat even on paper (if you believe in recruiting rankings) minus one HUGE exception. Louisville has the best player in college football lined up behind center. How does Kentucky overcome the presence of Lamar Jackson? And which U of L shows up? Will the Cats catch a break and face the Cardinal team that struggled against Duke, Virginia, Houston, and for most of the night against Wake Forest? Or will we get the team that mauled Florida State and took Clemson to the buzzer in Death Valley? Mark Stoops and staff are to be commended on turning the program around. UK has gone from 0-8 in the league to 4-4 and 6-5 overall. Still, Stoops is void of a truly special win. Does that change this weekend?

Line: Kentucky + 26 (5Dimes)

Series: Tied 14-14

Television/Game Time: ESPN/Noon Eastern

Kentucky offense vs. Louisville defense: Advantage Louisville
Kentucky enters play with the 17th ranked rushing offense in America. U of L has the 6th ranked rush defense (and #7 total defense). Something has to give. For the Cats, you have to wonder if they'll be able to run the football against this defense w/o the threat of a passing game. UK has played two other opponents with top 20 rush defenses (Alabama and Florida). UK struggled mightily against both (though both were early in the season). I'll be surprised if the "wildcat" enjoys much success. You never know when big plays are going to happen, so maybe Boom or Benny break free a few times. I doubt UK is able to sustain long drives though. If Stephen Johnson plays his best game as a Cat, that could change. Certainly, Kentucky has enough weapons at WR/TE to challenge Louisville. Unfortunately, UK's passing game has been woefully inconsistent. U of L's defense has only played three top 50 offenses this season (unless I missed one). The Cards held both Florida State and Houston below their season average. Clemson put up over 500 yards on U of L. UK's offensive line matches up fairly well with the U of L defensive front, but the Cards front seven is very good. Athletic. Best guess, this matchup is all about Stephen Johnson and the UK passing game. Really, I look at this matchup a lot like I did Georgia. UK will have some success on the ground, but not enough to win the game. They have to be able to throw the football. This matchup is all about UK's passing game, IMO. If it succeeds, Kentucky has a shot. If not, forget about it.

Kentucky defense vs. Louisville offense: Significant Advantage Louisville
The Cards bring the nations #1 overall offense into Saturday's Governor's Cup. QB Lamar Jackson, the likely Heisman Trophy winner, is an absolute nightmare for just about everyone. In last years game vs. UK, Jackson was pretty much untouchable. The U of L QB ran for 186 yards on only 17 carries. Based on what UK looked like a couple of weeks ago against Joshua Dobbs, I think it's fair to say the defense is "probably" in for a LONG Saturday. Are there reasons for optimism? Well, the Cards OL looked absolutely awful against Houston. Louisville has struggled at times against mediocre competition (UVA, Duke, and Wake for example), so there's that. Jackson's completion percentage of 57% isn't stellar, so maybe UK can force U of L into passing situations (while keeping him in the pocket on 3rd down). Realistically though, UK is in huge trouble with this matchup. Kentucky has shown almost zero ability to stop a good running game. U of L's rush game is elite. I could go into more detail about U of L's other skill players (like Quick, Radcliff, Hikutini, etc...), but this matchup is all about Lamar Jackson. Can UK keep him in between the tackles? Will Stoops sell out against the run and hope Jackson struggles with accuracy? Honestly, there isn't an ideal plan of attack. U of L has gotten outstanding production across the board. UK's front seven struggles to pressure opposing backfields. I've seen very little "creativity" from this defense, very little pressure at the LOS. Unless Jackson rolls an ankle or something, U of L is going to put up monster numbers. Hopefully, UK can end a few U of L possessions with turnovers, penalties, or drops.

Special Teams: Advantage Louisville
U of L gets the edge here for one reason...punting. UK's punting has gone from bad to comical. There are probably a handful of junior high schools (at least) that have a better punter than Kentucky. UK's offense isn't going to move the football as well as U of L's, so pinning U of L deep and at least giving them a long field to navigate would be nice. That isn't going to happen on Saturday. Kentucky could REALLY use a couple of breaks in the kicking game.

Kentucky will win if...they possess the football for about 40 minutes and score 45+ points. The passing game has to be the best that it's been. The defense has to do SOMETHING to end possessions.

Louisville will win if...Lamar Jackson plays like Lamar Jackson while the defense keeps UK in 3rd and intermediate/long. UK's passing game hasn't demonstrated ANY ability to produce consistently. The Cards should load up the box and make Stephen Johnson beat them.

Prediction...Louisville 52 Kentucky 28...UK has a shot to cover that mammoth spread, but that's where my optimism ends. Over 11 games, UK has proven that they're incapable of playing a "clean game." The defense is incapable of defending dual threat QB's. The offense makes too many mistakes. To win this game, UK will have to be someone that they haven't been all season. They'll also need a monster game from Stephen Johnson. Johnson has proven to be tough as nails, but that doesn't help much with accuracy in the passing game. Hope like hell I'm wrong!!!

Previous Picks
(9-2 S/U, 6-5 ATS)
Kentucky 31 Southern Mississippi 27
Florida 23 Kentucky10
Kentucky 48 New Mexico State 13
Kentucky 31 South Carolina 26
Alabama 55 Kentucky 7
Kentucky 23 Vanderbilt 13
Kentucky 20 Mississippi State 17
Kentucky 41 Missouri 31
Kentucky 24 Georgia 17
Tennessee 34 Kentucky 27
Kentucky 70 Austin Peay 10

GBB!!!

Pretty tough preview Erik. I agree that it isn't a small task, but Dobbs had the benefit of a top flight back UK had to account for in their running game who was also an excellent pass receiver, I don't think Louisville has anyone on that level so I don't believe that is a fair comparison, Jackson is probably a step quicker than Dobbs, but much easier to get on the ground, won't shake tacklers off like Dobbs does, but UK has to make the tackle. Houston made that tackle and he wasn't able to get in the secondary like he has done every other game. I know its easier to say than do, but to me that is the key to slowing him down, first contact has to get him on the ground. I don't think Louisville has played many teams serious about a running game so that stat is slanted.

Hell Auburn fans and writers think its and upset if Bama wins tomorrow. Team has to play with confidence.

 

[mtn cat1]

Pretty tough preview Erik. I agree that it isn't a small task, but Dobbs had the benefit of a top flight back UK had to account for in their running game who was also an excellent pass receiver, I don't think Louisville has anyone on that level so I don't believe that is a fair comparison, Jackson is probably a step quicker than Dobbs, but much easier to get on the ground, won't shake tacklers off like Dobbs does, but UK has to make the tackle. Houston made that tackle and he wasn't able to get in the secondary like he has done every other game. I know its easier to say than do, but to me that is the key to slowing him down, first contact has to get him on the ground. I don't think Louisville has played many teams serious about a running game so that stat is slanted.

Hell Auburn fans and writers think its and upset if Bama wins tomorrow. Team has to play with confidence.

I agree wtith your assessment that Uk must play with confidence and I would add that defensively, Uk Must play with a greater sense of urgency and aggressiveness than they have demonstrated thus far.

 

[bluekid]

We have to load the box. Louisville passing game is erratic. Force him to throw. Get pressure on him. Their receivers seem to drop a lot of balls. Make jackson put it in hands of the RB's. Spy jackson. Don't let him run. They will turn it over. We do that, we can not only get close but can win!!!

 

[Stenchymouse]

I'll be surprised if this game is close.

I expect the worst *** beating of the season.

Knowing that going in, I hope the fans don't freak out about it.

Take Jackson away from Louisville and move the game to Commonwealth and it'd be a tossup.

One player can make ALL the difference!

 

[bluekid]

Should we receive if we win the toss? Do something to irk petrino. He always takes ball. We score on them 1st. Vs us getting behind 8 ball. Something to think about.

 

[Nuke99m.]

It's just a bad matchup.

 

[ulismyman]

Yes take the ball and onside kick every time we score...they never get ball

 

[Eddie Gran can coach]

Spot on analysis Erik, UK cannot keep U of L from scoring 50+, Houston was able to slow down Lamar by blitzing like crazy and overwhelming the Louisville O-Line, UK doesn't have the players to do this (minus Jordan Jones) and coaches don't have the fortitude to dial up that kind of game plan

UK can score maybe 24-28 using their ground game, and possibly more, with play action deep passes that will be open, but Stoops has shown no riverboat gambler in his DNA to pull off this upset, it just doesn't exist within him.

 

[WildCard]

It's been a while since either fanbase enjoyed a blowout. UK's biggest margin of victory in the last decade was 25 points in 2008, Louisville's was 18 in 2012. Every other game during that span has been within two scores.

The Houston game has me discouraged because I know UK is going to come out the same way and play way above their heads. We've had so many issues with turnovers and a porous OL that I'd be shocked if it wasn't close through at least the third quarter

I think that is a pretty accurate perspective. There have been times when each side of this rivalry expected a rout...which did not occur. Cardinal miscues have been a big part of UKs scoring the past 2 years and the Cards are even more careless with the ball this year.

Peace

 

[maysvilleky]

UK has not shown they can defend a dual threat QB no matter who they are. Jackson is the Heisman favorite, so unless he gets knocked out of the game, I expect UKErik to be spot on.

 

[louisvillesux]

great read. i disagree with one part of this in a large way. ULs defense is very overrated, they dont play against many good offenses with that schedule. i believe UK will be able to move the ball, punching it into the end zone is another story.

 

[Burly]

Great analysis...we simply are a horrible defensive team who can not stop a dual threat especially the best in the country. We need at least 4 more Jordan Jones to stop him...plus we are woefully slow as defensive unit.

UofL will put pressure on Johnson and stuff the Wildcat. 59-28 UofL and we are heading to Birmingham or Memphis

 

[Soupbean]

Besides the obvious of trying to contain the Lamar scramble the one area that we have to find a way to stop is the underneath passing game of UL. When teams sell out to stop Lamar the go with a combination of deep routes and delay routes underneath to counter. I take my chances and make them complete the deep throws but we cannot over protect deep and give up the underneath delay crossing stuff as those are easy throws to complete even against pressure. Petrino loves these and they turn them into long gains if you give them the middle.

Rush from the corners hard (dont' want to rush middle too much and flush Lamar outside) but leave fast cover LBs or extra safety in the middle to stop those routes by Bonnafan, Quick, Hikitini and Co. Those are the plays that break us.

And go smaller and quicker across the board on D. Only change we have

 

[tntuk]

UK has not shown they can defend a dual threat QB no matter who they are. Jackson is the Heisman favorite, so unless he gets knocked out of the game, I expect UKErik to be spot on.

Well - we stopped McIlwain from South Carolina when we played them. He was the #2 dual threat QB out of high school last year.

 

[UKWildcats#8]

Jackson has to have a huge game to keep the Heisman, and Petrino knows this. That is all I have to say about any level of "mercy" if this gets out of hand early on.

 

[jauk11]

Agreed.

After we take our whipping, I will be crying inside - wishing we the Easy Rider on our sideline instead of theirs.

I hope he comes over to our side today, that should be a 15 yard penalty.

That is the only way I want the Ahole on our sideline.

 

[Robcatt24]

Just need to get through this game with no injuries and focus on winning the bowl to finish above .500.

Just get it over with and move on.

 

[jauk11]

Anyone streaming the game? Any game thread?

Also does someone have a link to WLAP 630 radio.

Not a very encouraging prediction Erik, but then I agree that we will cover------but by more than you predict, I think it could get interesting.

Very doubtful that we win though, next year------again, LOL.

 

[Mr Schwump]

Jackson has to have a huge game to keep the Heisman, and Petrino knows this. That is all I have to say about any level of "mercy" if this gets out of hand early on.

True that. Jackson's numbers have to be gargantuan to assure the Heisman, ordinary game and he loses regardless of the score.

Frankly, a UK win would be the biggest upset of the year in college football, UK has nothing to lose but everything to gain.

 

[Dallas-Wild]

The only disagreement I have Eric is UL may nearly 52 at half, if we are 3 and out the majority of the time.

 

[C.W.1]

Pretty tough preview Erik. I agree that it isn't a small task, but Dobbs had the benefit of a top flight back UK had to account for in their running game who was also an excellent pass receiver, I don't think Louisville has anyone on that level so I don't believe that is a fair comparison, Jackson is probably a step quicker than Dobbs, but much easier to get on the ground, won't shake tacklers off like Dobbs does, but UK has to make the tackle. Houston made that tackle and he wasn't able to get in the secondary like he has done every other game. I know its easier to say than do, but to me that is the key to slowing him down, first contact has to get him on the ground. I don't think Louisville has played many teams serious about a running game so that stat is slanted.

Hell Auburn fans and writers think its and upset if Bama wins tomorrow. Team has to play with confidence.

Grumpyolddawg once again nails it.

Two years ago UofL had a top 5 rushing defense coming into the UK game and UK rushed for 150 yards on them, without Benny Snell and with a much weaker offensive line than this year's o-line. Georgia in the Belk Bowl that year ran for 300 yards on that top 5 rushing defense. Moreover, that UofL defense was better, imo, than this year's because the secondary was better, especially if Josh Harvey Clemons doesn't play tomorrow. This year's UofL's rushing defense is good but it would be surprising if UK doesn't have the advantage running the ball. UofL's rushing defensive stats are not only aided by playing conference teams like Wake, BC... but are also aided by teams falling behind so badly that they have to pass the ball a lot. FSU actually ran the ball pretty effectively but couldn't do it when they fell so far behind. UofL's pass rush is more worrisome than their rushing defense.

As for UK stopping the run, Jordan Jones didn't play against UT. Jordan Jones isn't Lawrence Taylor (nobody is) but he's like LT to this UK defense. With Jones, UK has done a pretty good job stopping the run from the South Carolina game forward. Vandy is a good rushing team and they didn't run the ball too well against UK. MSU's QB is a better rushing QB than Joshua Dobbs. UK did a much better job against Fitzgerald than Dobbs. That says it all. Not having Jones against UT was huge.

UofL is a very good team but let's not make them out to be more than they are. Their offensive line is not very good, for example. UK has to be better in the red zone than they were against UT. If they are, it will be a very good game. Jordan Jones, Allen or Ware, one of them, needs to be in the UofL backfield all game.

 

[skcatfan]

Gotta keep Lamar Jackson off the field as much as possible. The best way to do that is run the ball down their throat. If UK can establish the run and actually score touchdowns in the red zone then an upset or at least a close game is possible.

 

[jnewc2_rivals30628]

If UK can establish the run and actually score touchdowns in the red zone then an upset or at least a close game is possible.

That's a pretty big "if" considering we have a defensive minded head coach (that tries to influence his OC's play calling during critical stretches) with his finger on the chicken switch

 

[jauk11]

great read. i disagree with one part of this in a large way. ULs defense is very overrated, they dont play against many good offenses with that schedule. i believe UK will be able to move the ball, punching it into the end zone is another story.

We have Bennie now, and who can forget Boom carrying two defenders across the goal line in the one game last year?

Grumpyolddawg once again nails it.

Two years ago UofL had a top 5 rushing defense coming into the UK game and UK rushed for 150 yards on them, without Benny Snell and with a much weaker offensive line than this year's o-line. Georgia in the Belk Bowl that year ran for 300 yards on that top 5 rushing defense. Moreover, that UofL defense was better, imo, than this year's because the secondary was better, especially if Josh Harvey Clemons doesn't play tomorrow. This year's UofL's rushing defense is good but it would be surprising if UK doesn't have the advantage running the ball. UofL's rushing defensive stats are not only aided by playing conference teams like Wake, BC... but are also aided by teams falling behind so badly that they have to pass the ball a lot. FSU actually ran the ball pretty effectively but couldn't do it when they fell so far behind. UofL's pass rush is more worrisome than their rushing defense.

As for UK stopping the run, Jordan Jones didn't play against UT. Jordan Jones isn't Lawrence Taylor (nobody is) but he's like LT to this UK defense. With Jones, UK has done a pretty good job stopping the run from the South Carolina game forward. Vandy is a good rushing team and they didn't run the ball too well against UK. MSU's QB is a better rushing QB than Joshua Dobbs. UK did a much better job against Fitzgerald than Dobbs. That says it all. Not having Jones against UT was huge.

UofL is a very good team but let's not make them out to be more than they are. Their offensive line is not very good, for example. UK has to be better in the red zone than they were against UT. If they are, it will be a very good game. Jordan Jones, Allen or Ware, one of them, needs to be in the UofL backfield all game.

Excellent points, especially the points about teams falling behind and missing Jones. Where have you been, we need more good posters.

 

[wobycat]

Just have the stoops call it off.

 

[jauk11]

That's a pretty big "if" considering we have a defensive minded head coach (that tries to influence his OC's play calling during critical stretches) with his finger on the chicken switch

Ah, never miss a chance to slam Stoops, do you?

 

[sluggercatfan]

Yeah, UK's incapable of pressuring the QB on D and makes too many mistakes on O...bad combination. UL wants a rout, Petrino is under pressure to deliver it, fans expect it, Jurich expects it and this may be his best chance for it. 48-21 UL.

First half score?

 

[sluggercatfan]

Ah, never miss a chance to slam Stoops, do you?

What he says is true!

 

[skcatfan]

That's a pretty big "if" considering we have a defensive minded head coach (that tries to influence his OC's play calling during critical stretches) with his finger on the chicken switch

Well we have pretty much ran the ball on everybody we've played other than Florida or Alabama. And Snell didn't play against Florida and UofL isn't anywhere close to Alabama's level so it's not a pretty big if imo.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Should we receive if we win the toss? Do something to irk petrino. He always takes ball. We score on them 1st. Vs us getting behind 8 ball. Something to think about.

UK got the ball first against So. Miss. Ended in a punt. So. Miss then scored.
UK got the ball first against NMSU. Ended with a UK interception. NMSU scored.
UK got the ball first against UGA. Ended in a punt. UGA then scored.
UK got the ball first against Mizzou. Ended in a missed FG.
UK got the ball first against Vanderbilt. Scored a touchdown.

UK first possession against South Carolina. Fumble. UK got the ball first in the second half. Touchdown.
UK first possession against MSU. Missed FG. UK got the ball first in the second half. Touchdown.
UK first possession against Austin Peay. Punt. UK got the ball first in the second half. Touchdown.
UK first possession against UF. Punt. UK interception started the second half.
UK first possession against Alabama. Made FG. Had to punt to start second half.
UK first possession against Tennessee. Touchdown. Got a FG to start the second half.


UK points when getting the ball first: 7
Opp. points when getting ball first: 0
UK points after half when getting ball first in second half: 24
Oppo. points when getting ball first in second half: 7

So, UK has only scored 7 points when getting the ball first to start the game. That's in 5 of 11 games. In the other 6 games UK has not given up a single point on the first drive. However, they've taken the ball and scored 24 points to open the second half. The positive is that UK has not really given up too many points on the opening drive of the second half either.

So, it seems to me that we should clearly defer the kickoff. It is also the only time in the game when you can get the ball twice in a row without causing a turnover. Just have to end the second half with the ball and have deferred and you get two possessions in a row. Can be up to a 14 point swing without the opponent ever touching the ball and your defense not having to be on the field.

 

[sluggercatfan]

It's been a while since either fanbase enjoyed a blowout. UK's biggest margin of victory in the last decade was 25 points in 2008, Louisville's was 18 in 2012. Every other game during that span has been within two scores.

The Houston game has me discouraged because I know UK is going to come out the same way and play way above their heads. We've had so many issues with turnovers and a porous OL that I'd be shocked if it wasn't close through at least the third quarter

Memphis 34.. Houston 17 @ half... UM has scored every time it has had the ball.:football::football:[banana][banana]:scream::grimace::sunglasses:

 

[truebluewildcat_rivals34254]

Overall, UL is a rhythm and momentum offense. Stop them and hold them to some field goals early on and there is a puncher's chance. It's also a very simple offense. Lamar is going to bust out and run if you crash the rb too early on the read and don't have anybody responsible for the QB. On passing LJ won't wait very long in his progressions to tuck and run. Don't get suckered into a chase and over pursue because he will win any race.

On O stay the course with Benny and Boom, don't try anything too drastic. Hit the cards with some passing straight up and/or play action on early downs just to keep the D honest.

May have to go for it on 4th down if we're far enough into scoring territory, mainly to score cause we're going to need all the points we can get but to also extend drives and keep LJ off the field.

 

[jauk11]

UK got the ball first against So. Miss. Ended in a punt. So. Miss then scored.
UK got the ball first against NMSU. Ended with a UK interception. NMSU scored.
UK got the ball first against UGA. Ended in a punt. UGA then scored.
UK got the ball first against Mizzou. Ended in a missed FG.
UK got the ball first against Vanderbilt. Scored a touchdown.

UK first possession against South Carolina. Fumble. UK got the ball first in the second half. Touchdown.
UK first possession against MSU. Missed FG. UK got the ball first in the second half. Touchdown.
UK first possession against Austin Peay. Punt. UK got the ball first in the second half. Touchdown.
UK first possession against UF. Punt. UK interception started the second half.
UK first possession against Alabama. Made FG. Had to punt to start second half.
UK first possession against Tennessee. Touchdown. Got a FG to start the second half.


UK points when getting the ball first: 7
Opp. points when getting ball first: 0
UK points after half when getting ball first in second half: 24
Oppo. points when getting ball first in second half: 7

So, UK has only scored 7 points when getting the ball first to start the game. That's in 5 of 11 games. In the other 6 games UK has not given up a single point on the first drive. However, they've taken the ball and scored 24 points to open the second half. The positive is that UK has not really given up too many points on the opening drive of the second half either.

So, it seems to me that we should clearly defer the kickoff. It is also the only time in the game when you can get the ball twice in a row without causing a turnover. Just have to end the second half with the ball and have deferred and you get two possessions in a row. Can be up to a 14 point swing without the opponent ever touching the ball and your defense not having to be on the field.

Good facts, thanks for the hard work.

 

[jauk11]

Memphis 34.. Houston 17 @ half... UM has scored every time it has had the ball.:football::football:[banana][banana]:scream::grimace::sunglasses:

Thanks for the score, been watching the game off and on all morning, and had never heard a score-------or time left, or down, or yards to go, or anything else, really.

The nitwit that runs ABC must be in charge of the fiasco they have run all year, if it wasn't the man in charge surely he would have fired the idiot that thought up the stupidity of making it impossible to keeping track of the game unless you are there full time AND take notes.

 

[jauk11]

What he says is true!

Thanks, you guys are really helping the program with all the negativity. Who would come here if we fired him now?

Do you still think Stoops will be fired before the season is over, at least you got an extension on that stupid hope until the bowl game.

Give it up, for the good of the team. We need another good class, very possible we do very well this year, better than the two win seasons?.