So the Cats are playing meaningful football in November! For the first time since I was a little kid, Kentucky heads into the seasons final month with an opportunity to win the conference. By the time UK and the Dawgs take the field Saturday night, we'll know the result of Florida/Arkansas. A Gators win doesn't eliminate UK, but a Hogs win would put Kentucky in an ideal position to win the division. Of course, nothing ever comes easy for UK football. No matter what happens elsewhere, UK has to beat Georgia and Tennessee back-to-back to keep the dream alive. First up, the Dawgs! Looking at UGA week-by-week, it's apparent that they've struggled more often than not. Georgia lost at home to Vanderbilt. They needed a 4th and 10 TD conversion with under 2:00 to go to win at Missouri. Nicholls State gave them a scare. Ole Miss pounded UGA. Long story short, it's been a rough first go of it for Kirby Smart. Last year's meeting between the Cats and Dawgs was competitive for most of the afternoon. UK trailed 10-3 early in the 3rd quarter but faded. A Mark Stoops 4th and 2 decision at midfield was the beginning of the end that day. Kentucky will need to make those kinds of plays Saturday night. Hopefully, Commonwealth Stadium is packed for yet another version of "The biggest game of the Stoops era."
Line: Kentucky +2
Series: Georgia leads 55-12-2
Television/Game Time: SEC Network/7:30 eastern
Kentucky offense vs. Georgia defense: Slight advantage Georgia
Georgia brings the nations 13th best rush defense to Lexington. However, I'm not sure Georgia has been challenged by a solid running game. Of their eight opponents, only Missouri ranks in the top 50 running the football. The rest rank 67th or worse. Point being, this might be UGA's toughest test yet in terms of facing a good rushing offense. Still, for Kentucky to swing the edge in their favor, they have to be two dimensional. The good news for UK is that they have the weapons at WR/TE to make that happen. QB Stephen Johnson put together a very nice 2nd half against State then played just as well in the first half at Mizzou. Georgia's pass rush has been mediocre. Combine that with UK's rush threat, and Eddie Gran should find plenty of opportunities to pick up yards throwing the football. As usual, Georgia has a very solid front seven. What's unusual, however, is that Kentucky's offensive line is good enough to fight back. Generally, Georgia pushes Kentucky around with ease. I don't think that's likely to happen this weekend. With 6-7 in the box, Boom Williams and Benny Snell should continue to be successful. When UGA brings a safety up, that's when Johnson has to be able to make plays. Against Mizzou, UK was able to run the ball effectively even vs. eight defenders in the box. I don't see that happening against Georgia. The key to this matchup will be Johnson, IMO. The young QB has to be able to make some plays in the passing game. The good news for UK is that he's been doing just that. Georgia's pass defense isn't a great one, so Badet/Baker/G. Johnson/Conrad should all have opportunities.
Kentucky defense vs. Georgia offense: Slight advantage Kentucky
Georgia has been a mess offensively. UGA put up only 164 yards against a very good Florida defense. Two things that kind of stuck out to me when watching the Dawgs...their lack of size at WR...and drops. Georgia has dropped a LOT of passes this season. Think UK last year. Freshman QB Jacob Eason has completed only 53% of his passes, but I wonder how many percentage points have been lost to dropped balls. Georgia doesn't really run their QB, so unless they change up their entire offense this week, the dual threat read option stuff shouldn't be an issue (with that being said, I'd incorporate it if I were UGA...Lock had some big runs last week). Georgia's biggest issue has been OL play. It's been inconsistent. They were flat out awful against Florida. Not only was Eason consistently harassed, but the running game was non-existent. Despite the presence of Chubb/Michel, Georgia ranks 100th nationally in total offense. Overall, they just seem to have something go wrong on most possessions. Their QB has been inconsistent. Their OL has been inconsistent. Their WR's drop a lot of passes. They've often been their own worst enemy. While UGA's offense has floundered, UK's defense has flourished. Last week, Kentucky allowed just one real TD "drive", and that was significantly aided by a ridiculous personal foul call that kept a Mizzou drive alive. I don't think UK's front seven is going to overpower Georgia by any means, but they should be able to do enough to keep UGA out of the endzone more often than not. If the Cats can play as well as they did against what was the nations #11 total offense, you'd think they'll do well against the 100th ranked unit. The key to this matchup is easy. Stop the UGA running game. Make Georgia's true frosh QB and small WR's beat you. One thing for UK to remember...UGA will throw to their backs. UK's LB's have to be disciplined.
Special Teams: Slight advantage Kentucky
UK ranks top 25 nationally in punt and kick returns. I'll take MacGinnis over just about any kicker in the league. One issue for UK....they've gotten nothing out of the punt game recently. Give McKenzie a low line drive, and he can take it back in a hurry.
Georgia will win if...they run the football with success. Their passing game just seems like a mess right now with so much inconsistency with the QB, OL, and WR's, so UGA "HAS" to put the game in the hands of their RB's.
Kentucky will win if...they throw the football with success. If UK does enough to make Georgia respect the passing game, well, Cats win! We all know UK has one of the best groups of pass catchers in the SEC. This might be their week to lead the Cats to victory!
Prediction...Kentucky 24 Georgia 17...When you look at the two offensive units and two defensive units, the one that's really struggling right now is Georgia offensively. I think UK continues their progress on defense AND in the passing game, takes advantage of UGA's offensive struggles, and beats a talented Georgia team.
Previous Picks
(7-1 S/U, 5-3 ATS)
Kentucky 31 Southern Mississippi 27
Florida 23 Kentucky10
Kentucky 48 New Mexico State 13
Kentucky 31 South Carolina 26
Alabama 55 Kentucky 7
Kentucky 23 Vanderbilt 13
Kentucky 20 Mississippi State 17
Kentucky 41 Missouri 31
GBB!!!
Line: Kentucky +2
Series: Georgia leads 55-12-2
Television/Game Time: SEC Network/7:30 eastern
Kentucky offense vs. Georgia defense: Slight advantage Georgia
Georgia brings the nations 13th best rush defense to Lexington. However, I'm not sure Georgia has been challenged by a solid running game. Of their eight opponents, only Missouri ranks in the top 50 running the football. The rest rank 67th or worse. Point being, this might be UGA's toughest test yet in terms of facing a good rushing offense. Still, for Kentucky to swing the edge in their favor, they have to be two dimensional. The good news for UK is that they have the weapons at WR/TE to make that happen. QB Stephen Johnson put together a very nice 2nd half against State then played just as well in the first half at Mizzou. Georgia's pass rush has been mediocre. Combine that with UK's rush threat, and Eddie Gran should find plenty of opportunities to pick up yards throwing the football. As usual, Georgia has a very solid front seven. What's unusual, however, is that Kentucky's offensive line is good enough to fight back. Generally, Georgia pushes Kentucky around with ease. I don't think that's likely to happen this weekend. With 6-7 in the box, Boom Williams and Benny Snell should continue to be successful. When UGA brings a safety up, that's when Johnson has to be able to make plays. Against Mizzou, UK was able to run the ball effectively even vs. eight defenders in the box. I don't see that happening against Georgia. The key to this matchup will be Johnson, IMO. The young QB has to be able to make some plays in the passing game. The good news for UK is that he's been doing just that. Georgia's pass defense isn't a great one, so Badet/Baker/G. Johnson/Conrad should all have opportunities.
Kentucky defense vs. Georgia offense: Slight advantage Kentucky
Georgia has been a mess offensively. UGA put up only 164 yards against a very good Florida defense. Two things that kind of stuck out to me when watching the Dawgs...their lack of size at WR...and drops. Georgia has dropped a LOT of passes this season. Think UK last year. Freshman QB Jacob Eason has completed only 53% of his passes, but I wonder how many percentage points have been lost to dropped balls. Georgia doesn't really run their QB, so unless they change up their entire offense this week, the dual threat read option stuff shouldn't be an issue (with that being said, I'd incorporate it if I were UGA...Lock had some big runs last week). Georgia's biggest issue has been OL play. It's been inconsistent. They were flat out awful against Florida. Not only was Eason consistently harassed, but the running game was non-existent. Despite the presence of Chubb/Michel, Georgia ranks 100th nationally in total offense. Overall, they just seem to have something go wrong on most possessions. Their QB has been inconsistent. Their OL has been inconsistent. Their WR's drop a lot of passes. They've often been their own worst enemy. While UGA's offense has floundered, UK's defense has flourished. Last week, Kentucky allowed just one real TD "drive", and that was significantly aided by a ridiculous personal foul call that kept a Mizzou drive alive. I don't think UK's front seven is going to overpower Georgia by any means, but they should be able to do enough to keep UGA out of the endzone more often than not. If the Cats can play as well as they did against what was the nations #11 total offense, you'd think they'll do well against the 100th ranked unit. The key to this matchup is easy. Stop the UGA running game. Make Georgia's true frosh QB and small WR's beat you. One thing for UK to remember...UGA will throw to their backs. UK's LB's have to be disciplined.
Special Teams: Slight advantage Kentucky
UK ranks top 25 nationally in punt and kick returns. I'll take MacGinnis over just about any kicker in the league. One issue for UK....they've gotten nothing out of the punt game recently. Give McKenzie a low line drive, and he can take it back in a hurry.
Georgia will win if...they run the football with success. Their passing game just seems like a mess right now with so much inconsistency with the QB, OL, and WR's, so UGA "HAS" to put the game in the hands of their RB's.
Kentucky will win if...they throw the football with success. If UK does enough to make Georgia respect the passing game, well, Cats win! We all know UK has one of the best groups of pass catchers in the SEC. This might be their week to lead the Cats to victory!
Prediction...Kentucky 24 Georgia 17...When you look at the two offensive units and two defensive units, the one that's really struggling right now is Georgia offensively. I think UK continues their progress on defense AND in the passing game, takes advantage of UGA's offensive struggles, and beats a talented Georgia team.
Previous Picks
(7-1 S/U, 5-3 ATS)
Kentucky 31 Southern Mississippi 27
Florida 23 Kentucky10
Kentucky 48 New Mexico State 13
Kentucky 31 South Carolina 26
Alabama 55 Kentucky 7
Kentucky 23 Vanderbilt 13
Kentucky 20 Mississippi State 17
Kentucky 41 Missouri 31
GBB!!!
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