Halfway through the SEC slate, Kentucky is VERY alive in the eastern division race. How crazy is that? Not only are the Cats just one game back and tied for 2nd place with Tennessee, but the road to Atlanta doesn't look all that impossible to navigate. How crazy is THAT???? While UK has as good a shot as they've ever had of winning the division (that probably isn't saying much), the path leaves no room for error. One loss will likely end the dream. First up, Mississippi State. MSU has knocked the Cats off seven years in a row. That's hard to believe, especially when you consider the Dogs had just 15 wins all-time against UK prior to the streak. Dan Mullen brings another physical team to Lexington. He also has another bulldozer at QB. How UK handles Mullen's dual threat signal caller will be key. As for Kentucky, a dreadful eight quarter stretch that had fans talking about Mark Stoops being fired has given way to a 3-1 run featuring two league wins and a fairly competitive performance at Alabama. Can the Cats keep things going against struggling Mississippi State? No question, this is a HUGE game for Kentucky!
Line: Kentucky +3
Series: Mississippi State leads 22-21
Television/Game Time: SEC Network (7:30 eastern)
Kentucky offense vs. Mississippi State defense: Advantage Mississippi State
Think about the damage this offense could do with a solid quarterback. Not elite. Not even very good. Just solid. The Cats have playmakers all over the place. Boom Williams ranks 7th in the league in rushing. Benny Snell is averaging over 5 yards per carry (on pace for a 700 yard season). UK has one of the best TE's in college football and a very good group of WR's. The OL is playing better than I thought they would. Unfortunately, QB continues to be a severe problem. Stephen Johnson struggled mightily against Vanderbilt, throwing 6-7 balls that SHOULD have been picked. VU's defense is no joke though. And neither is MSU's. The Dogs aren't necessarily dominant, but they're as aggressive as any defense UK has played. They'll blitz a LOT! They'll give Johnson a LOT of looks. They'll pressure the LOS with 6-7 more often than anyone UK has played so far. In short, they're not going to make things comfortable for Johnson. So how does Eddie Gran attack MSU's defense? I would think we'll see more WR screens than usual. With the press coverage UK will see, maybe more fades and deep routes. Certainly, Gran will have to emphasize quick throws with the passing game and a lot of inside stuff with the run game. Because MSU is so aggressive, Boom, Benny and Jo Jo might have opportunities to break some for big gains. I don't think UK is likely to sustain long drives against State, but Kentucky is going to get some 1-on-1 opportunities outside. And I think they'll hit a couple of long runs as well.
Kentucky defense vs. Mississippi State offense: Slight advantage Kentucky
First thought with this matchup....QB Nick Fitzgerald is going to be a handful. The 6'5, 230 pounder leads MSU in rushing (with plenty of room to spare). Fitzgerald has rushed for 431 yards, double the number of RB Brandon Holloway (Holloway is likely to miss this weekend's game). No other RB on the roster is averaging even 30 yards per game. The Dogs passing game has been better than UK's but not by much (89th nationally). Fitzgerald has completed 55% of his passes. His two main targets are Fred Ross and Donald Gray. UK's secondary should matchup well with both. The key to this game EVERY YEAR seems to be Dan Mullen's ability to out-scheme UK's DC. For whatever reason, MSU runs downhill against UK at will. I think that stops this season. UK's defense has seen substantial improvement over the last 14 quarters. Kentucky has allowed just four touchdowns over the last 36 opponent drives. That stat is absolutely unbelievable for ANY defense. Why the improvement? The front seven has gone from putrid to good. Denzil Ware and Jordan Jones each rank in the top five in the SEC in sacks. In general, UK's young linebackers have played better football. I've been impressed with lineman Courtney Miggins and Naque Pringle as well. MSU's o-line, which will be down a starter this weekend, is physical but not dominant. As long as Kentucky doesn't allow MSU to run the ball down their throat (and MSU shouldn't), I like them in this matchup. UK has corners that can cover Ross and Gray. UK has linebackers that can deal with Fitzgerald. I admit, I feel a little awkward feeling confidence with UK's defense, but four TD's in 36 possessions says something about their talent and potential.
Special Teams: Advantage Kentucky
Another nice development has been UK's ability to look functional in the kicking game. UK ranks 26th nationally returning kicks (State is 104th). UK ranks 8th returning punts (granted, it's a small sample size, but 8th is 8th). MSU is 108th. Both teams have solid K's, but I'm getting to the point where I'll take Austin MacGinnis over almost anyone. For his career, MacGinnis has drilled 14-21 kicks from 40+ yards. Inside 40 yards, he's 25-29. Those are pretty damned impressive numbers.
Mississippi State will win if...their defense takes advantage of Stephen Johnson mistakes. Johnson's pocket awareness is poor. He's struggled to take care of the football. MSU will pressure the hell out of him. Gran has to keep things simple for the young QB.
Kentucky will win if...Johnson avoids game changing turnovers and the defense contains Fitzgerald. I don't think UK needs a big game from Johnson, but they can't afford to give points away like they did against Alabama and Vanderbilt. Generally, I despise conservative, field position football, but I won't this weekend. I won't even complain if UK runs on 3rd and 7.
Prediction...Kentucky 20 Mississippi State 17...With two weeks to prepare, I think Eddie Gran will have Johnson ready to go. I also think UK is going to run the football on damn near every play. Hopefully, that opens up some deep stuff for Johnson/Badet/Baker and the seams for Conrad. I also think the UK defense gets the job done against an offense that doesn't have a boatload of weapons.
Previous Picks
(5-1 S/U, 3-3 ATS)
Kentucky 31 Southern Mississippi 27
Florida 23 Kentucky10
Kentucky 48 New Mexico State 13
Kentucky 31 South Carolina 26
Alabama 55 Kentucky 7
Kentucky 23 Vanderbilt 13
GBB!!!
Line: Kentucky +3
Series: Mississippi State leads 22-21
Television/Game Time: SEC Network (7:30 eastern)
Kentucky offense vs. Mississippi State defense: Advantage Mississippi State
Think about the damage this offense could do with a solid quarterback. Not elite. Not even very good. Just solid. The Cats have playmakers all over the place. Boom Williams ranks 7th in the league in rushing. Benny Snell is averaging over 5 yards per carry (on pace for a 700 yard season). UK has one of the best TE's in college football and a very good group of WR's. The OL is playing better than I thought they would. Unfortunately, QB continues to be a severe problem. Stephen Johnson struggled mightily against Vanderbilt, throwing 6-7 balls that SHOULD have been picked. VU's defense is no joke though. And neither is MSU's. The Dogs aren't necessarily dominant, but they're as aggressive as any defense UK has played. They'll blitz a LOT! They'll give Johnson a LOT of looks. They'll pressure the LOS with 6-7 more often than anyone UK has played so far. In short, they're not going to make things comfortable for Johnson. So how does Eddie Gran attack MSU's defense? I would think we'll see more WR screens than usual. With the press coverage UK will see, maybe more fades and deep routes. Certainly, Gran will have to emphasize quick throws with the passing game and a lot of inside stuff with the run game. Because MSU is so aggressive, Boom, Benny and Jo Jo might have opportunities to break some for big gains. I don't think UK is likely to sustain long drives against State, but Kentucky is going to get some 1-on-1 opportunities outside. And I think they'll hit a couple of long runs as well.
Kentucky defense vs. Mississippi State offense: Slight advantage Kentucky
First thought with this matchup....QB Nick Fitzgerald is going to be a handful. The 6'5, 230 pounder leads MSU in rushing (with plenty of room to spare). Fitzgerald has rushed for 431 yards, double the number of RB Brandon Holloway (Holloway is likely to miss this weekend's game). No other RB on the roster is averaging even 30 yards per game. The Dogs passing game has been better than UK's but not by much (89th nationally). Fitzgerald has completed 55% of his passes. His two main targets are Fred Ross and Donald Gray. UK's secondary should matchup well with both. The key to this game EVERY YEAR seems to be Dan Mullen's ability to out-scheme UK's DC. For whatever reason, MSU runs downhill against UK at will. I think that stops this season. UK's defense has seen substantial improvement over the last 14 quarters. Kentucky has allowed just four touchdowns over the last 36 opponent drives. That stat is absolutely unbelievable for ANY defense. Why the improvement? The front seven has gone from putrid to good. Denzil Ware and Jordan Jones each rank in the top five in the SEC in sacks. In general, UK's young linebackers have played better football. I've been impressed with lineman Courtney Miggins and Naque Pringle as well. MSU's o-line, which will be down a starter this weekend, is physical but not dominant. As long as Kentucky doesn't allow MSU to run the ball down their throat (and MSU shouldn't), I like them in this matchup. UK has corners that can cover Ross and Gray. UK has linebackers that can deal with Fitzgerald. I admit, I feel a little awkward feeling confidence with UK's defense, but four TD's in 36 possessions says something about their talent and potential.
Special Teams: Advantage Kentucky
Another nice development has been UK's ability to look functional in the kicking game. UK ranks 26th nationally returning kicks (State is 104th). UK ranks 8th returning punts (granted, it's a small sample size, but 8th is 8th). MSU is 108th. Both teams have solid K's, but I'm getting to the point where I'll take Austin MacGinnis over almost anyone. For his career, MacGinnis has drilled 14-21 kicks from 40+ yards. Inside 40 yards, he's 25-29. Those are pretty damned impressive numbers.
Mississippi State will win if...their defense takes advantage of Stephen Johnson mistakes. Johnson's pocket awareness is poor. He's struggled to take care of the football. MSU will pressure the hell out of him. Gran has to keep things simple for the young QB.
Kentucky will win if...Johnson avoids game changing turnovers and the defense contains Fitzgerald. I don't think UK needs a big game from Johnson, but they can't afford to give points away like they did against Alabama and Vanderbilt. Generally, I despise conservative, field position football, but I won't this weekend. I won't even complain if UK runs on 3rd and 7.
Prediction...Kentucky 20 Mississippi State 17...With two weeks to prepare, I think Eddie Gran will have Johnson ready to go. I also think UK is going to run the football on damn near every play. Hopefully, that opens up some deep stuff for Johnson/Badet/Baker and the seams for Conrad. I also think the UK defense gets the job done against an offense that doesn't have a boatload of weapons.
Previous Picks
(5-1 S/U, 3-3 ATS)
Kentucky 31 Southern Mississippi 27
Florida 23 Kentucky10
Kentucky 48 New Mexico State 13
Kentucky 31 South Carolina 26
Alabama 55 Kentucky 7
Kentucky 23 Vanderbilt 13
GBB!!!
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