Breaking down the Cats and Dores

ajgcardman

All-Conference
Jan 23, 2006
10,370
3,871
81
Last week was pretty disappointing, but I think Cats win this one. Next week is a gimme, so the victory Saturday will insure a bowl season.
 

*Bleedingblue*

Heisman
Mar 5, 2009
39,188
29,693
113
Cold weather. Dreary skies. Pissed off football fans. It must be time for the annual Kentucky/Vanderbilt football game (LOL). Kentucky and Vandy actually played in September last season (a UK win in Lexington). It's back to November this year. Vanderbilt's '15 team has extended one of the more remarkable streaks in all of sports. The Commodores last won a conference championship 92 years ago (and no, the SEC wasn't even in existence yet), about four years after the end of World War ONE! Kentucky's last SEC title came in 1977. Both teams are still alive for bowl eligibility, but Vandy's path to the postseason isn't a viable one. If Kentucky loses this weekend, their path becomes much more difficult. For Mark Stoops, this is as important a game as he's coached in his time at UK. The Cats have struggled mightily, losing four straight while becoming less and less competitive each time out. Stoops said he felt his team didn't believe they could win last week. His quarterback wrote RELAX on the back of one of his hands. Yeah, UK is a mini-train wreck (or a full on train wreck if you prefer). Nothing cures "football train wreck" more than winning. UK badly needs a "W" this weekend.

Line: Kentucky +3

Series: Kentucky leads 42-41-4
Through 1945: Vandy led 19-1-2
Since 1946: UK leads 41-22-2

Game time/Television: 4 eastern/SEC Network

Kentucky offense vs. Vanderbilt defense: Advantage Vanderbilt
It's been a difficult season for the 'Dores, but their defense has played pretty well. VU held their last three SEC opponents (South Carolina, Florida, and Missouri) to a combined two offensive touchdowns. Vandy also played Houston during that time period, allowing nearly 400 yards and three offensive touchdowns. The one area Vandy looked REALLY good last week was their d-front against the Florida offensive line. The Gators averaged less than 3 yards per carry (34 attempts) while totaling just 258 total yards. VU is averaging over six TFL per game (six last week vs. Florida). How UK's porous OL keeps the Vandy d-front out of the o-backfield is anyone's guess. The UK offense is mostly dysfunctional at this point. The UK QB situation is up in the air (though most think Stoops and staff will go with Towles). Really though, Kentucky's problems on "O" are just unbelievably wide spread. Inconsistent QB play (more poor than inconsistent of late). Poor play at WR. A non-existent running game. What might be the worst offensive line among P5 schools. It's been a nightmare, and now UK gets what has been one of the best defenses in the SEC. In fact, VU ranks 12th nationally in scoring defense. Bottom line, based on how units have looked recently, there's little reason for optimism if you're a UK fan. EVEN IF Kentucky cleans up a couple of areas (like QB and WR play for example), the o-line is putrid. Last week, for some insane reason, UK decided to run the football on 2nd and long much more often than not. Not stunningly, that led to a lot of 3rd and longs. Will Dawson do the same thing this week?

Kentucky defense vs. Vanderbilt offense: Slight advantage Kentucky
It feels slightly ridiculous giving this defense even a slight advantage over anyone. Last weeks 1st half performance at Georgia gives me hope that this unit has at least something left in the tank. Certainly, this will be the worst offensive unit UK has played. Vandy has scored 133 points this SEASON. Only Missouri has scored fewer (132). They've scored just two touchdowns in their last four games. Two of those opponents, South Carolin and Houston, don't exactly field "Steel Curtain" defenses. QB Johnny McCrary has been absolutely awful throwing the football (12 INT's, 6 TD's, 54.8%). BUT, he's a decent athlete that likes to run the ball on occasion (63-169). RB Ralph Webb is closing in on a 1000 yard season. UK did a good job against him last year. Because the Vandy OL is pretty similar to Kentucky's (mostly awful), it's been difficult for Vanderbilt to put together long drives. This week, DJ Eliot has two tasks. One, don't be the team to let McCrary get loose. And two, keep pressure on the Vandy o-front. It's a very poor o-front, so getting into the o-backfield is something that should happen early and often.

Special Teams : Advantage Vanderbilt
I say Vanderbilt only because UK's special teams are a complete and total disaster. Every week now, UK makes a HUGE error (or more). Last week, Timmons fumbled a punt. UK's special teams is the gift that just keeps on giving to SEC opponents.

Kentucky will win if...they score 17 points. Defensively, just do what everyone has done to Vanderbilt. Against I-A opponents (including MTSU and WKU), the most VU has scored this season is 17.

Vanderbilt will win if...they score 17 points. The best overall unit on the field will be the Vandy defense. Just control the UK o-front and keep Boom Williams in check, and the 'Dores would probably be just fine.

Most important thing for Kentucky...make plays when plays are there to be made. Sounds simple. Most teams do just that. Not UK. Drops. Poor throws. You name it, and this unit has screwed it up. UK needs a big day from Boom Williams.

Prediction: Kentucky 17 Vanderbilt 10...This game is the epitome of a toss up. In all honesty, the team that screws up the least will probably win. There's no real reason to pick UK or Vandy, though you could probably make a better case for VU due to their defense. UK has better offensive skill people by a significant margin this week. Hopefully, UK hits a couple of big plays and avoids the weekly special teams meltdown.

Previous Picks
Kentucky 55 Louisiana 10 (UK 40-30)
Kentucky 34 S Carolina 31 (UK 26-22)
Kentucky 27 Florida 23 (UF 14-9)
Kentucky 24 Missouri 17 (UK 21-13)
Kentucky 48 EKU 10 (UK 34-27)
Kentucky 31 Auburn 24 (AU 30-27)
Miss St 38 Kentucky 31 (MSU 42-16)
Tennessee 38 Kentucky 37 (UT 52-21)
Georgia 27 Kentucky 17 (UGA 27-3)

GBB!!!


Noticed that in every one of your pics we have not met or broke the scoring number you estimated.

If Towels plays then 24-3 Vandy
If Barker plays most of the game then 17-14 UK. Reason why? With a new QB the team will feel hope and really around Barker and do their best.
 
Aug 30, 2009
181
42
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If towles gets the majority of the snaps. Then 0-17 vandy. If barker gets the majority of the snaps. Then 20-10 Kentucky. Just have that feeling that barker is a major upgrade over towles and if he gets his chance he won't let it be to waste. But I also have that feeling regardless how bad towles plays no matter what stoops is sticking with him til the end.
 
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murpack

Redshirt
Oct 16, 2004
641
11
0
Games like this with two evenly matched teams going in the same direction are usually determined by turnovers. That makes it a game NOT to bet on.
 

Deeeefense

Heisman
Staff member
Aug 22, 2001
43,876
50,268
113
Vandy's offense must be excited to finally be facing a defense where they might actually score some points. The fact that their defense has done as well as it has, having to stay on the field as much as they have is a minor miracle. OTOH This is not really they type of team for a struggling offense like Kentucky to get well against. If they can't find a way to move the ball they are doomed.

Kentucky has upgraded Hatcher and Boom to "probably" so our injury situation has improved some however in total context Vandy is in better shape on the injury front.

I'm trying to find a way to justify a Kentucky win but honestly I just can't see it without playing the old "Iffin game" that Coach Claiborn use to talk about. "If Towles or Barker this or that", "If the line blocks well", "If the defense get's a turnover or two" etc.

Kentucky: 10
Vandy: 21
 

TransyCat09

All-American
Feb 3, 2009
18,109
5,149
0
Against common opponents UK is giving up 4 more points per game than Vandy and scoring 5 more a game. May not mean much
 

BoulderCat_rivals187983

All-Conference
May 22, 2002
7,871
3,227
0
As someone else noted a nice write-up for kind of a dud of a game. Except in it's importance to our season. I've been trying really hard over this last month to keep a positive attitude so for no real reason other than a modicum of hope I'm saying UK 14-10. As you mentioned I'm hoping UK's D might actually get one of those TD's. Last night I watched another program that has become a lot like UK over the years with the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. That'd be the Buffs. I sure hope our Cat's don't do that today, but rather get the early lead and keep it.
 

UKUGA

Heisman
Jan 26, 2007
18,505
26,810
0
A little afraid that UK will get shut out today. One of those, "Just don't want to be here" days.

Saying that, we might get fired up and win - big.

I noticed, though, when Vandy played UGA, that they weren't really a terrible team. I felt even more that way when they almost upset Florida last week.

UK's struggling offense vs. Vandy's (dare I say?) stout defense. Doesn't really bode well for the boys in blue.

Maybe the heart says Kentucky wins, gets on a roll and finishes the season 7-5, and we get to say, "Hey, we went 7-5, 3-5 in conference, and went to a bowl game, maybe things are moving in the right direction."
My head says that this team is a mess right now. and Vandy is licking it's chops to get another conference win.

Stoops needs this win, for a ton of reasons. If he wins, he will get that bowl game, extra practices, etc. It matters, especially for this particular team.

I don't really want to think about the reality of losing to Vandy at this point.
 

docholiday51

Heisman
Oct 19, 2001
22,011
26,718
0
As someone else noted a nice write-up for kind of a dud of a game. Except in it's importance to our season. I've been trying really hard over this last month to keep a positive attitude so for no real reason other than a modicum of hope I'm saying UK 14-10. As you mentioned I'm hoping UK's D might actually get one of those TD's. Last night I watched another program that has become a lot like UK over the years with the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. That'd be the Buffs. I sure hope our Cat's don't do that today, but rather get the early lead and keep it.
I have been a Cat fan for many years but over the years I have learned to be a realist when it comes to UK football.I have always been a call it like I see it type.

Keeping that in mind I think UK wins this one. Like the commercial says I don't always bet on sports,but if I did I'd take the Cats in this one[cheers]
 

LadyCaytIL

Heisman
Oct 28, 2012
31,944
32,697
113
Our defense is not better than their offense..... Have you seen our defense this year? We made EKU and Lafayette look like offensive power houses. When we give receivers 5+ yard cushions to catch the ball...... any QB will look like peyton manning.

We have to turn them over ......
 

BluTide

Redshirt
Oct 25, 2005
56
12
0
I'll be surprised if cats win..... Hope I'm wrong because 5-7 isn't what was expected after 3 years under stoops