Anybody gambling on the BC this weekend? First thoughts, I just started looking at Friday races, Precise in Fillies looks like best bet on Friday (although don't like 13 PP). May single in Pick 3s. Juvenile Brant and Ted Noffey should be co favorites in Juvenile, but both are front runners, may try to pick a closer or two for an exacta try.
Breeders Cup fans?
- Thread starter Tskware
- Start date
I saw that, had her singled in my pick three bets so back to the drawing board
Also two horses scratched in the juvenile leaving only six horses in the field, I think i'm going to pass on that race
I’m a horse racing junkie. I’ll be wagering on it. I’m going to take a shot on a 2nd time starter in the 7th at a price. Number 3 Meaning. She won in impressive fashion first time out. She‘s not facing a particularly tough group today. 15-1 morning line is worth a wager.
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Looking at the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Lenilu- True Love -Havana Anna -Cy Fair Super. leaning Lenilu to win Cy Fair to place.
I did an exacta with her on top and four other horses in second place, I agree 100%
Irish horses have won the last 3 Juvenile turf sprints for what thats worth
My theory on turf sprints, especially with horses that don’t have a lot of races under their belt, is to try and find a price.
Only winner today, had $20 W on Ted Noffey, played a lot of gimmicks in the other races, but had no luck.
I hit him and Gstaad . Going to take it I'm on a 2 race winning streak and forget about the previous races.
Computer assisted wagering. They make big wagers on races right at post time based on data. It really effects the odds on the smaller races. You have a horse you bet at 6-1 and right at the start the odds drop 5-2. Im not sure it has much effect on the BC races with all the money bet on each race.
Yeah, I’ll disagree here. There’s a lot of nuance to consider that a computer can’t simulate.
For example, Seismic has always been on uncontested lead. Baffert had other horses in prior races and never challenged him for lead. Was this by design? So, what would happen if other horses contested his pace? Well, we found out.
In the end, big bet comes in at end, it changes everyone’s odds including the last bet. So, they are not getting value.granted, placing large wagers means a large return if right, no matter the odds.
Don't bet much, but the syndicates betting large sums have to be winning or they'd stop. Understand they negotiate with tracks for "discounts" on all their betting. I take this to mean lower track takes than for we peons.
I like the idea of shutting the CAWs down 5 minutes before post. Gives all the little bettors time to see the odds and get there bets down. Im not sure how the discounts work.
Interesting. I did not notice any large moves in the odds right before posttime this weekend, but I will say I have noticed it at Keeneland
EDIT: I will also say as alluded to in the article, small fields is much the bigger problem with HR gambling. I almost never look at a race with 5 or 6 horse fields (which is a lot of them, including stakes) unless I want to make a large win bet on one of them. No other reason to play such small fields.
EDIT: I will also say as alluded to in the article, small fields is much the bigger problem with HR gambling. I almost never look at a race with 5 or 6 horse fields (which is a lot of them, including stakes) unless I want to make a large win bet on one of them. No other reason to play such small fields.
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