Bubble Watch

TheC

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
19,214
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Oh boy.... things are about to get interesting on the NCAA bubble. Undefeated Miami of Ohio has gone down in the quarterfinals of the MAC tournament to a 16-15 UMass team. There was a lot of discussion about whether they'd get picked if they didn't win the automatic bid. Now, they will sweat it out. Could you imagine going 30-0 and it being a disappointment because you didn't make the tournament??
 

macarthur31

Junior
Nov 9, 2006
1,659
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63
Oh boy.... things are about to get interesting on the NCAA bubble. Undefeated Miami of Ohio has gone down in the quarterfinals of the MAC tournament to a 16-15 UMass team. There was a lot of discussion about whether they'd get picked if they didn't win the automatic bid. Now, they will sweat it out. Could you imagine going 30-0 and it being a disappointment because you didn't make the tournament??
Ooof. Miami should get in as an at-large, but this is just brutal. There's been enough rhetoric out there to back a mediocre major (cough cough, AUBURN), and as someone who is cool on further tourney expansion, I could envision leaving the Redhawks out as a way to tee up expansion (as opposed to addressing the factors like how no majors wanted to play Miami, and as a result, struggled to create a schedule to get signature wins; or just the over-favoring of high major conferences in general)
 

AdamOnFirst

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Nov 29, 2021
10,070
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This is genuinely a pickle for the selection committee. All the stats paint Miami OH as franklt not very good. They scheduled absolutely nobody, not a single power conference game, and they're 93 in the KenPom and 54 in the net. I think their net is okay enough that they may get the bump due to just being 30-0, but scheduling absolutely nobody does them no favors and they aren't actually good.
 
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xxxbobxxx

Sophomore
Mar 12, 2005
10,810
166
43
Is the B1G final after / during selection Sunday reveal again? If so, imagine NU in finals - there would be no choice but to include NU in tourney even though they might lose and not be worthy. It’s a great way to cause a potential extra B1G team to make the tourney without winning the tournament.
 

macarthur31

Junior
Nov 9, 2006
1,659
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This is genuinely a pickle for the selection committee. All the stats paint Miami OH as franklt not very good. They scheduled absolutely nobody, not a single power conference game, and they're 93 in the KenPom and 54 in the net. I think their net is okay enough that they may get the bump due to just being 30-0, but scheduling absolutely nobody does them no favors and they aren't actually good.
I hadn't really paid much attention to this, but your post prompted me to check out their kenpom page. Oy vey, you're right. kenpom93? Best win is home v kp 59 Akron, and that was 76-73?

Man, I get it that they likely got the runaround in trying to get non-con games scheduled, but yikes - this is another example of why conferences gotta protect their #1 teams and...(scans MAC tourney bracket)... oh, they only let the top 8 teams qualify. So, uhh...(shakes head), yeah, I got nothin except, this is a really tough assignment for the committee. Their metrics are not tourney worthy.
 

Hungry Jack

All-Conference
Nov 17, 2008
37,486
2,979
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Miami North is #93 in KenPom. The MAC must be very, very weak.

They beat a school called "Milligan" 135-81.

EDIT: Sorry, Mac. Missed your post before mine.
 
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AdamOnFirst

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2021
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I hadn't really paid much attention to this, but your post prompted me to check out their kenpom page. Oy vey, you're right. kenpom93? Best win is home v kp 59 Akron, and that was 76-73?

Man, I get it that they likely got the runaround in trying to get non-con games scheduled, but yikes - this is another example of why conferences gotta protect their #1 teams and...(scans MAC tourney bracket)... oh, they only let the top 8 teams qualify. So, uhh...(shakes head), yeah, I got nothin except, this is a really tough assignment for the committee. Their metrics are not tourney worthy.
It is not hard for teams to grab a spot in a pregame showcase that has a couple P4 teams in it. This is on them.
 

CappyNU

Senior
Mar 2, 2004
5,263
520
113
Just throw them to Dayton against Auburn, problem solved. You have to get some credit for going 31-0 and actually winning games, otherwise we can just simulate the season on spreadsheets.
 
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GatoLouco

Sophomore
Nov 13, 2019
5,671
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The mid majors get so screwed. They are blamed for not scheduling better teams when those teams would not even remotely there to come play them on their own turf.

Screw the little guy and claim they don't deserve it.
 
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macarthur31

Junior
Nov 9, 2006
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It is not hard for teams to grab a spot in a pregame showcase that has a couple P4 teams in it. This is on them.
I can't speak to booking nonconference exhibitions. However, this article (which I'm paywalled) is written by a blogger who did an Open Records request and surfaced 20 emails from Miami's Athletic Department trying to book non-con booking this year. The r/CollegeBasketball thread comment did list the schools:


No available responses:
Pittsburgh

Wisconsin

Marquette

USC

Sacred Heart

Oregon

Ohio State

Mississippi State

Florida

Response(s) but no agreement:

Michigan State

UCLA

Boise State

Grand Canyon

Kansas (“We’ll need to look at next year”)

BYU

Utah

Illinois (“I need to get two high NET games 300+ before I would think about playing you.”)

Virginia Tech

Nebraska
 
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AdamOnFirst

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2021
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All these contacts are from this last summer, when schedules are already largely done out. So they weren't exactly being proactive. I think schools like IU flopping in their tournaments will help, but I honestly don't feel any pity for them. Furthermore, don't lose to KenPom #194, a genuinely bad team, in your conference tourney! Don't! Now you're 30-1, guys. Don't let the #223 offensive in the country score 87 points!
 
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Purple Pile Driver

All-Conference
May 14, 2014
27,617
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I doubt many of you have actually seen them play.

They are easily in and they’ll win their first round game.
 

prez77

Junior
Dec 27, 2024
576
254
57
Who you play absolutely matters. It should be the single most important thing and starting point. Who on earth gives up 135 points in 40 minutes? The KenPom says it all. Heck, they play us in football and you only get 3 non-cons there.
 

Secho99

Sophomore
Dec 12, 2001
1,860
113
63
I hadn't really paid much attention to this, but your post prompted me to check out their kenpom page. Oy vey, you're right. kenpom93? Best win is home v kp 59 Akron, and that was 76-73?

Man, I get it that they likely got the runaround in trying to get non-con games scheduled, but yikes - this is another example of why conferences gotta protect their #1 teams and...(scans MAC tourney bracket)... oh, they only let the top 8 teams qualify. So, uhh...(shakes head), yeah, I got nothin except, this is a really tough assignment for the committee. Their metrics are not tourney worthy.

Their predictive metrics aren't great, but their descriptive ones are fine and the committee uses those too. They were 21st in strength of record coming into today and 33rd in wins above bubble. They should still make it but their punishment for the weak schedule might be Dayton. I think going 31-1 has to count for something. If it was so easy to go 31-1 against a weak schedule there would be teams doing it all the time and there aren't.
 

prez77

Junior
Dec 27, 2024
576
254
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Their predictive metrics aren't great, but their descriptive ones are fine and the committee uses those too. They were 21st in strength of record coming into today and 33rd in wins above bubble. They should still make it but their punishment for the weak schedule might be Dayton. I think going 31-1 has to count for something. If it was so easy to go 31-1 against a weak schedule there would be teams doing it all the time and there aren't.
So I guess if they played us they would win and wipe out Indiana since they are a tourney-quality team?
 

Secho99

Sophomore
Dec 12, 2001
1,860
113
63
So I guess if they played us they would win and wipe out Indiana since they are a tourney-quality team?
Part of evaluating a team is projecting how they’ll do in the future. Part of it is evaluating how they’ve already done. You can’t do one of those things and ignore the other, it’s all part of the equation. Predicting how a team will do is useful but hypothetical. A team’s results are concrete. That’s why there’s metrics that look at both. I think there’s general agreement that Miami is not an elite team, which is why they’re being discussed as a 10 or 11 seed. Most teams that go 31-1 would be assured a 1 seed, I think being demoted 10 seed lines is enough of a “punishment” for a weaker schedule.
 
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CatManTrue

All-American
Oct 4, 2008
16,534
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I doubt many of you have actually seen them play.

They are easily in and they’ll win their first round game.
I have watched them play. They look like an above average MAC team - they aren’t anything special to be frank.

And I have watched a lot of MAC basketball- got to see Kent State’s Elite 8 team with Antonio Gates several times in person, and THAT was a legitimate team. Their 7 foot center went to my HS and was in the NBA for a bit.

3 of their wins are versus D3 teams, including the aforementioned Milligan?

I’m fine either way. How funny would it be if Indiana got in over them?

Honestly I think we would have beaten Miami (Oh) soundly had we played them this season.
 

katatonic2

Sophomore
Dec 1, 2025
159
116
43
This is genuinely a pickle for the selection committee. All the stats paint Miami OH as franklt not very good. They scheduled absolutely nobody, not a single power conference game, and they're 93 in the KenPom and 54 in the net. I think their net is okay enough that they may get the bump due to just being 30-0, but scheduling absolutely nobody does them no favors and they aren't actually good.

As already mentioned, they tried to schedule P4 programs but no takers, so what are they supposed to do?

This is exactly why I'm in favor of taking out deliberation by a committee as much as possible when it comes to the CFB playoff.

Speaking of Miami (Ohio), they've really started pumping $ into athletics.



Some say that's because they eventually would like to join the B1G, which is fantasy-land, but can see the possibility (even if not great) of one Miami replacing another Miami in a certain conference.
 

Purple Pile Driver

All-Conference
May 14, 2014
27,617
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I have watched them play. They look like an above average MAC team - they aren’t anything special to be frank.

And I have watched a lot of MAC basketball- got to see Kent State’s Elite 8 team with Antonio Gates several times in person, and THAT was a legitimate team. Their 7 foot center went to my HS and was in the NBA for a bit.

3 of their wins are versus D3 teams, including the aforementioned Milligan?

I’m fine either way. How funny would it be if Indiana got in over them?

Honestly I think we would have beaten Miami (Oh) soundly had we played them this season.
They did what they were supposed to do. They won 30 games. If it was easy to do, you would see it every year in these weak conferences.

They certainly are not a great team, but they deserve to be rewarded with a bid based on their regular season. I think they beat or at least give a stern challenge to the bottom 10 B1G teams. Much rather see them than an Auburn, Indiana, Oklahoma type. They have a chance to win a game depending on match up.
 
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CatManTrue

All-American
Oct 4, 2008
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Not early in the season and not at their place. Maybe late in the season. The 'Cats certainly wouldn't have won 30 games with Miami's schedule.
I think Martinelli would hang 40 on them and the rest of the team would have an easy time. They did not look like a very talented basketball team but are skilled & disciplined.

It’s not like they dominated the MAC either. They had a LOT of close wins to bad MAC teams.

If Miami had played a random three bottom half Big Ten teams instead of three D3 programs they would have gone 1-2 at best.

Heck, even make it three B1G teams that won’t make the dance: us, Indiana, and Rutgers. I think Miami would have been heavy dogs in each game and likely gone 0-3.

Get your popcorn ready! 🍿
 

CappyNU

Senior
Mar 2, 2004
5,263
520
113
Miami is kenpom #93 right now.

We beat kenpom #95 by 2 on a neutral court
We beat kenpom #99 by 1 at home
We beat kenpom #102 by 2 on the road
We beat kenpom #121 by 4 at home
We lost to kenpom #124 by 2 in OT on the road

But please, continue to tell us how we would just absolutely handle 31-1 Miami.
 

EagerFan

Sophomore
Dec 24, 2010
3,197
182
63
Miami is kenpom #93 right now.

We beat kenpom #95 by 2 on a neutral court
We beat kenpom #99 by 1 at home
We beat kenpom #102 by 2 on the road
We beat kenpom #121 by 4 at home
We lost to kenpom #124 by 2 in OT on the road

But please, continue to tell us how we would just absolutely handle 31-1 Miami.
Interesting...

Miami beat kenpom #198 by 2 at home
Miami beat kenpom #133 by 2 at home
Miami lost to kenpom #198 by 4 on a neutral court
Miami beat kenpom #228 by 2 on the road
Miami beat kenpom #273 by 2 on the road

Is their best win vs kenpom #64 by 3 at home?

Even with the Cats being very down this year, I'm confident that a healthy Cats squad wins 4 out of 5 at home or on a true neutral court. Miami had a fantastic year and they deserve a decent seed for their effort.
 

Purple Pile Driver

All-Conference
May 14, 2014
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I guess everyone will look super smart when MOH bows out in the first round. All I know for sure is that it is very very difficult to get mentally prepared for 30+ games especially when the last 15 are against clubs that want to make their season by knocking off an undefeated team.
 

AdamOnFirst

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2021
10,070
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I guess everyone will look super smart when MOH bows out in the first round. All I know for sure is that it is very very difficult to get mentally prepared for 30+ games especially when the last 15 are against clubs that want to make their season by knocking off an undefeated team.
It’s the tourney: they could be not very good and still end up in the sweet 16. Anything can happen.
 
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prez77

Junior
Dec 27, 2024
576
254
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The "They're 30-0/1 so they must be at least somewhat good" argument is just not logical. My high school won the state championship years ago, went over 100 points 5 times and had 3 guys on the all-state team. Probably the best high school team in the state's history. They still would not have beaten a college team. Who you played to get those wins just, simply, absolutely, matters.
 

Purple Pile Driver

All-Conference
May 14, 2014
27,617
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The "They're 30-0/1 so they must be at least somewhat good" argument is just not logical. My high school won the state championship years ago, went over 100 points 5 times and had 3 guys on the all-state team. Probably the best high school team in the state's history. They still would not have beaten a college team. Who you played to get those wins just, simply, absolutely, matters.
You are comparing the gap between a college team and a HS team to the gap between MOH and a tournament team?
 
Aug 31, 2003
15,032
485
83
We were never below where Miami is now in the KenPom
If we're going to play the computer rankings game (and each one has its problem), NU is below Miami in the NET rankings right now. I don't worship the KenPom as superior.

I saw with my own eyes how the 'Cats couldn't rebound or play consistent defense early in the season. The 'Cats did improve in those areas as the season went on. But Miami had solid fundamentals from the beginning.
 
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prez77

Junior
Dec 27, 2024
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You are comparing the gap between a college team and a HS team to the gap between MOH and a tournament team?
Yes, to make a point. If one is measuring the quality of a team as a function of its wins, who they are winning against matters as a first principle.
 

EagerFan

Sophomore
Dec 24, 2010
3,197
182
63
I guess everyone will look super smart when MOH bows out in the first round. All I know for sure is that it is very very difficult to get mentally prepared for 30+ games especially when the last 15 are against clubs that want to make their season by knocking off an undefeated team.
I'll root for them against any non-B1G team they face in the tournament. And their first game, while it's likely to be their only game, is likely to be their best shot at being overlooked and not prepared for. Even my 'NU wins 4 out of 5' claim still leaves that 1 game.
 

CatManTrue

All-American
Oct 4, 2008
16,534
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Halfway thru and Miami of Oxford is still waiting to see if they’ll be accepted… but they have a video feed, so they probably will be 🤷‍♂️