Buie Injury

[ricko6543211]

I know Gaines is out for the year with shoulder surgery.

Buie I’ve seen has a stress fracture in his foot. Do we have a current best guess as to when he might be back? We are playing awfully shorthanded right now. Any returning depth would be nice...

At this point I’m thinking 3-4 conf wins is the median expectation. 5-15 would exceed expectations, unfortunately. Looks like there are 12 good B1G teams (some of which are very good), and then us and Nebraska.

 

[hdhntr1]

I know Gaines is out for the year with shoulder surgery.

Buie I’ve seen has a stress fracture in his foot. Do we have a current best guess as to when he might be back? We are playing awfully shorthanded right now. Any returning depth would be nice...

At this point I’m thinking 3-4 conf wins is the median expectation. 5-15 would exceed expectations, unfortunately. Looks like there are 12 good B1G teams (some of which are very good), and then us and Nebraska.

While broken bones take about 6 weeks to heal, I thought I saw that they were saying something like 7-10 days. Basically, no idea.

 

[go cats go_rivals310290]

While broken bones take about 6 weeks to heal, I thought I saw that they were saying something like 7-10 days. Basically, no idea.

I think that Collins said something with this timeframe during the WGN pre-game interview. (I was splitting my attention between listening and cooking dinner.) But I believe Collins said that they will take another look at Buie's foot in 7-10 days to re-evaluate--so, he's out at least that long.

 

[Titanium999]

I think that Collins said something with this timeframe during the WGN pre-game interview. (I was splitting my attention between listening and cooking dinner.) But I believe Collins said that they will take another look at Buie's foot in 7-10 days to re-evaluate--so, he's out at least that long.

Kid is a stud!

 

[IdahoAlum]

The general consensus of the web sites I've googled say stress fractures typically take 6 to 8 weeks to heal. So you're probably looking at late February to early March for Buie to return to action. By that time, it may be wise to just have him take off the rest of the season to assure full healing.

 

[TheC]

The general consensus of the web sites I've googled say stress fractures typically take 6 to 8 weeks to heal. So you're probably looking at late February to early March for Buie to return to action. By that time, it may be wise to just have him take off the rest of the season to assure full healing.

That's going to make it awfully hard for us to win the BIG tournament then.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

I know Gaines is out for the year with shoulder surgery.

Buie I’ve seen has a stress fracture in his foot. Do we have a current best guess as to when he might be back? We are playing awfully shorthanded right now. Any returning depth would be nice...

At this point I’m thinking 3-4 conf wins is the median expectation. 5-15 would exceed expectations, unfortunately. Looks like there are 12 good B1G teams (some of which are very good), and then us and Nebraska.

3-4 conference wins. Where do I sign up?

 

[JournCat]

3-4 conference wins. Where do I sign up?

I know! Not going 0-20 will be a feat.

 

[IdahoAlum]

That's going to make it awfully hard for us to win the BIG tournament then.

Yes, yes it is....

 

[ricko6543211]

I know! Not going 0-20 will be a feat.

I will sell 0-20 if you’d like. I don’t think you’ve watched enough college basketball. There is randomness

 

[TheC]

I will sell 0-20 if you’d like. I don’t think you’ve watched enough college basketball. There is randomness

The fact that we battled a team down to the wire on the road without Buie makes me think we'll get at least one or two somewhere down the line. But 3 or 4 would be tough.

 

[GatoLouco]

Our players were also, very visibly, intimated by the pressure of a close game and hostile crowd down the stretch. Not running plays, lots of standing around... but that will tend to get better. And that's all a bit easier in the friendly confines of WR. I think the chances of 0-20 are very slim

 

[JournCat]

I will sell 0-20 if you’d like. I don’t think you’ve watched enough college basketball. There is randomness

I watch plenty of college basketball and have seen some bad NU teams in my time. If we don't find a way to beat Nebraska at home, 0-20 will be in play. KenPom projects us to win Saturday and then lose every game the rest of the year.

 

[ricko6543211]

I watch plenty of college basketball and have seen some bad NU teams in my time. If we don't find a way to beat Nebraska at home, 0-20 will be in play. KenPom projects us to win Saturday and then lose every game the rest of the year.

I will repeat, it's extremely unlikely that we go 0-20. I would happily sell it to you at 5/1 (theoretically as there's no way to practically settle it).

Yeah even if every game is an 80% chance of losing, that's still about a 1% probability. That goes up to somewhat less than 3% when you consider we've already lost 4. If you sprinkle in a couple that are 0.5 or even 0.3-0.4 chance of winning, it becomes far less likely.

Even if it is likely that we losing every individual game, it's very unlikely to lose them all. That's just math.

For a more detailed example, consider the following of the 16 games remaining (I didn't look at the remaining schedule to decide this, it is just conceptual, but I think if anything it might be tilted toward your side on the probabilities):
- 4 games at 90% chance of loss (like an @MSU or @OSU?)
- 5 games at 80% chance of loss (like an @Indy or @Purdue)
- 4 games at 70% chance of loss (home games against good teams, road games against bottom dwellers)
- 2 games at 60% chance of loss (home games against weak teams not named Nebraska)
- 1 game at 40% chance of loss (home Nebraska)
The combined odds of losing all are about 0.7%. And again, I think that's conservative. Mind you, to your misguided point above about "projected to lose every game but 1", we would be underdogs in all games but 1 in the formulation above.

Math.

 

[hdhntr1]

The general consensus of the web sites I've googled say stress fractures typically take 6 to 8 weeks to heal. So you're probably looking at late February to early March for Buie to return to action. By that time, it may be wise to just have him take off the rest of the season to assure full healing.

Sorry but he needs meaningful playing time. Otherwise this is a lost year as it is too late to RS. He has an entire off season to heal, even if he did aggravate it. Now if he could still RS, I would agree with you Not sure why people were saying 7-10 days but if they caught it early and his last game was 12/29 so 6 weeks from then is first half of Feb.

 

[ricko6543211]

I will repeat, it's extremely unlikely that we go 0-20. I would happily sell it to you at 5/1 (theoretically as there's no way to practically settle it).

Yeah even if every game is an 80% chance of losing, that's still about a 1% probability. That goes up to somewhat less than 3% when you consider we've already lost 4. If you sprinkle in a couple that are 0.5 or even 0.3-0.4 chance of winning, it becomes far less likely.

Even if it is likely that we losing every individual game, it's very unlikely to lose them all. That's just math.

For a more detailed example, consider the following of the 16 games remaining (I didn't look at the remaining schedule to decide this, it is just conceptual, but I think if anything it might be tilted toward your side on the probabilities):
- 4 games at 90% chance of loss (like an @MSU or @OSU?)
- 5 games at 80% chance of loss (like an @Indy or @Purdue)
- 4 games at 70% chance of loss (home games against good teams, road games against bottom dwellers)
- 2 games at 60% chance of loss (home games against weak teams not named Nebraska)
- 1 game at 40% chance of loss (home Nebraska)
The combined odds of losing all are about 0.7%. And again, I think that's conservative. Mind you, to your misguided point above about "projected to lose every game but 1", we would be underdogs in all games but 1 in the formulation above.

Math.

PS I would happily take over 1.5, or even over 2 (ie 2-18 is a push).

You know how many P6 (included Big East) teams finished with 0 conference wins? One - Vanderbilt. Do you know how many total finished with 2 or less conference wins? Two - Vanderbilt and Georgia. That's out of probably 75 teams or so. There's bad, very bad, and then downright atrocious. I think we are between bad and very bad, I don't think we are downright atrocious.

 

[NJCat]

PS I would happily take over 1.5, or even over 2 (ie 2-18 is a push).

You know how many P6 (included Big East) teams finished with 0 conference wins? One - Vanderbilt. Do you know how many total finished with 2 or less conference wins? Two - Vanderbilt and Georgia. That's out of probably 75 teams or so. There's bad, very bad, and then downright atrocious. I think we are between bad and very bad, I don't think we are downright atrocious.

I wonder how many Power 6 teams have lost to Merrimack, Radford and Hartford in the same season?

 

[GatoLouco]

I wonder how many Power 6 teams have lost to Merrimack, Radford and Hartford in the same season?

Don't dis Merrimack, they are 2-1 in conference.

Hartford and Radford are 2-0.

There's always an angle to make us feel better about ourselves.

 

[ricko6543211]

I wonder how many Power 6 teams have lost to Merrimack, Radford and Hartford in the same season?

We also beat Providence, and smoked Bradley and BC. Realize everyone in the B1G but Neb is better than those teams, but still. Nebraska beat Minny, I think on the road. We had a very good shot at winning @Indiana.

College basketball is random. Teams go winless in CFB. You see 2-14 records in the NFL. Teams don't really go winless in CBB. Worst team in the NBA is 8-30. Individual game outcomes in basketball have more randomness. Not as much as hockey or baseball, those are the most random. But far more than football.

 

[JournCat]

We also beat Providence, and smoked Bradley and BC. Realize everyone in the B1G but Neb is better than those teams, but still. Nebraska beat Minny, I think on the road. We had a very good shot at winning @Indiana.

College basketball is random. Teams go winless in CFB. You see 2-14 records in the NFL. Teams don't really go winless in CBB. Worst team in the NBA is 8-30. Individual game outcomes in basketball have more randomness. Not as much as hockey or baseball, those are the most random. But far more than football.

Vanderbilt went 0-18 in the SEC last year and never lost to a team ranked lower than #143 KenPom (Kent State), which was also their only loss to a non-conference school.

My original comment was a throwaway line and I agree that the math makes it unlikely that we'll shoot the moon. But we have the wrong mix of inexperience and bad health right now. The Buie injury is especially damaging because he was someone you could envision taking last-second shots in a game like Wednesday's.

 

[Catreporter]

Nebraska has not won a road game this year. They did beat Purdue (without Haarms) and Iowa at home, though. The Big Ten is really deep this year. Despite the math, if we lose tomorrow, 0-20 is a distinct possibility. That said, if we don't have any defections, with our two new recruits (and maybe a grad transfer), we could have a talented roster capable of a solid turnabout next year.

 

[combes]

Nebraska has not won a road game this year. They did beat Purdue (without Haarms) and Iowa at home, though. The Big Ten is really deep this year. Despite the math, if we lose tomorrow, 0-20 is a distinct possibility. That said, if we don't have any defections, with our two new recruits (and maybe a grad transfer), we could have a talented roster capable of a solid turnabout next year.

Haarms played 22 minutes against Nebraska. Only had 3 points, though.

 

[NURoseBowl]

Haarms played 22 minutes against Nebraska. Only had 3 points, though.

Haarms doesn't need to score much to affect the game. He's like a giant praying mantis.

 

[ricko6543211]

Vanderbilt went 0-18 in the SEC last year and never lost to a team ranked lower than #143 KenPom (Kent State), which was also their only loss to a non-conference school.

My original comment was a throwaway line and I agree that the math makes it unlikely that we'll shoot the moon. But we have the wrong mix of inexperience and bad health right now. The Buie injury is especially damaging because he was someone you could envision taking last-second shots in a game like Wednesday's.

I will accept the excuse that your original comment was a throwaway line. Cause it was a dumb comment. We suck, but we will still win 3-4 games in conference this year. I also wish we did not lose Buie (and Gaines etc) to injury. This season is not a fun one.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

I will accept the excuse that your original comment was a throwaway line. Cause it was a dumb comment. We suck, but we will still win 3-4 games in conference this year. I also wish we did not lose Buie (and Gaines etc) to injury. This season is not a fun one.

Actually, I enjoy this season way more than last season. At least now, I tune in to see NU’s young guys progress. I have hope and expectations that we will be decent next year, not great. Last year was painful to watch when you feel you should get a few more W’s and you don’t. I don’t have any expectations for W’s this season. It’s easier to watch.

 

[GatoLouco]

ricko654321 said:

↑



I will accept the excuse that your original comment was a throwaway line. Cause it was a dumb comment. We suck, but we will still win 3-4 games in conference this year. I also wish we did not lose Buie (and Gaines etc) to injury. This season is not a fun one.

Actually, I enjoy this season way more than last season. At least now, I tune in to see NU’s young guys progress. I have hope and expectations that we will be decent next year, not great. Last year was painful to watch when you feel you should get a few more W’s and you don’t. I don’t have any expectations for W’s this season. It’s easier to watch.
[/quote]
How many wins next season will make you feel the season was ok?

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Actually, I enjoy this season way more than last season. At least now, I tune in to see NU’s young guys progress. I have hope and expectations that we will be decent next year, not great. Last year was painful to watch when you feel you should get a few more W’s and you don’t. I don’t have any expectations for W’s this season. It’s easier to watch.

How many wins next season will make you feel the season was ok?[/QUOTE]
It’s very early to ask that question. With no significant ailments, don’t lose to ANY teams in minor conferences, 500 in B1G, and contend for a bid to Tourney.

 

[GatoLouco]

I feel like I am among the most critical here and would be happy with 8 wins next year. Great to know that maybe I am not too critical

I won’t be inclined, though, to accept some injury as an excuse to not get there. We don’t depend on one player. That’s what a 9 men rotation is for. To soften ailments. Ultimately 7 healthy is enough to be competive.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

I feel like I am among the most critical here and would be happy with 8 wins next year. Great to know that maybe I am not too critical

I won’t be inclined, though, to accept some injury as an excuse to not get there. We don’t depend on one player. That’s what a 9 men rotation is for. To soften ailments. Ultimately 7 healthy is enough to be competive.

So you won’t be critical if NU has 8 wins next year?

 

[hdhntr1]

I feel like I am among the most critical here and would be happy with 8 wins next year. Great to know that maybe I am not too critical

I won’t be inclined, though, to accept some injury as an excuse to not get there. We don’t depend on one player. That’s what a 9 men rotation is for. To soften ailments. Ultimately 7 healthy is enough to be competive.

Generally we have not had to deal with just one injury. If Buie is averaging 25 ppg and suddenly goes down... Have to consider if it is an area with adequate backup.

 

[GatoLouco]

GatoLouco said:

↑



I feel like I am among the most critical here and would be happy with 8 wins next year. Great to know that maybe I am not too critical

I won’t be inclined, though, to accept some injury as an excuse to not get there. We don’t depend on one player. That’s what a 9 men rotation is for. To soften ailments. Ultimately 7 healthy is enough to be competive.

So you won’t be critical if NU has 8 wins next year?
[/quote]
I will always be critical of the things I don’t think are right. But that’s pretty much independent of record.

But as far as expectations, 8 B1G wins would be, for me, acceptable

 

[hdhntr1]

So you won’t be critical if NU has 8 wins next year?

I will always be critical of the things I don’t think are right. But that’s pretty much independent of record.

But as far as expectations, 8 B1G wins would be, for me, acceptable[/QUOTE]
You said, 8 wins

 

[hdhntr1]

Nebraska has not won a road game this year. They did beat Purdue (without Haarms) and Iowa at home, though. The Big Ten is really deep this year. Despite the math, if we lose tomorrow, 0-20 is a distinct possibility. That said, if we don't have any defections, with our two new recruits (and maybe a grad transfer), we could have a talented roster capable of a solid turnabout next year.

Well, now we can stop hearing about that nonsense