The issue is the last time we had a housing crash is because people couldn’t actually afford the houses they were getting loans on. This time it’s due to having the money for it, low rates, and in my area a lack of inventory. The prices will definitely go down when rates increase as that will slow demand, but will it “crash” or go back to what prices were 2 years ago? IMO no. A house that would’ve sold for 100k 2 years ago and is selling for 150k now might sell for 130k in 2 years, but it’s not going to go massively down, in my opinion. And in my particular area a lack of inventory will actually probably keep the prices up for a while with only a small dip down.
When I made this thread I thought it was a terrible time to build, but it’s actually worked out for the best because even though I’m paying 15% more than what it would have a couple years ago it beats paying more than that right now and getting stuck in a bidding war for a house that I would probably want to make some changes to anyway. I think prices might go down a little but I think it’ll balance out due to higher rates so it’ll probably equal out in the long run.
Yeah I recall reading from some economists that houses really don't fall much. Once they rise, they're generally there to stay (aside from a big recession like in 2008). I do wonder if people are still buying homes they can't afford. Several friends are stuck getting into homes for well above what they budgeted for. And many without even doing an inspection. That HAS to bite a good portion of people down the road, causing them to sell and take their losses, or go into foreclosure. Another site was saying that the 30-90 day, and 90 day+ delinquencies are on the rise.
As we reopen the US economy, I'm curious to see if these builders go full steam on builiding and finishing the developments, causing the pendulum to swing back, and inventory rises.
I'm really just looking for SOMETHING that will cause this to drop back to normal, but it might be a while. Glad to not be a first time home buyer, though. I think some young couples, who already went through two huge recessions, aren't going to get slaughtered again by this.