Cal, UK, and NCAA nail-biters

[MdWIldcat55]

There have been suggestions among sports journalists that, if UK enters the NCAA tournament unbeaten, the team will be more vulnerable to losing a tight game.

I think there are a number of reasons this makes no sense.

One I haven't seen mentioned:

Since coming to Kentucky, John Calipari has coached in SEVEN NCAA tournament games decided in the LAST MINUTE: Princeton 2011, Ohio State 2011, UNC 2011, Wichita State 2014, Louisville 2014, Michigan 2014 and WIsconsin 2014.

He is 7-0 in those games. That run included a game where the Cats were playing a very sluggish game as a favorite (Princeton) and games in which the Cats were considered a decided underdog (Ohio State, UNC, Louisville.) It included games where UK was clinging to a 1 or 2 point lead, were tied, or were behind.

Some of this is luck, and a lot of it is beyond Cal's control, as Rose bricking free-throws was in the 2008 title game. But clearly Cal has a calming and focusing influence on teams when the season is on the brink.

 

[rhstoess]

Originally posted by MdWIldcat55:
There have been suggestions among sports journalists that, if UK enters the NCAA tournament unbeaten, the team will be more vulnerable to losing a tight game.

I think there are a number of reasons this makes no sense.

One I haven't seen mentioned:

Since coming to Kentucky, John Calipari has coached in SEVEN NCAA tournament games decided in the LAST MINUTE: Princeton 2011, Ohio State 2011, UNC 2011, Wichita State 2014, Louisville 2014, Michigan 2014 and WIsconsin 2014.

He is 7-0 in those games. That run included a game where the Cats were playing a very sluggish game as a favorite (Princeton) and games in which the Cats were considered a decided underdog (Ohio State, UNC, Louisville.) It included games where UK was clinging to a 1 or 2 point lead, were tied, or were behind.

Some of this is luck, and a lot of it is beyond Cal's control, as Rose bricking free-throws was in the 2008 title game. But clearly Cal has a calming and focusing influence on teams when the season is on the brink.

You also have to remember UCONN in 2011 though, that was a close loss. Still, his track record looks good

 

[Allan Brewer]

This notion about taking a "good loss" before the tourney is based on a proposition that if an undefeated team gets in a close game they will tighten up, freeze, get nervous because they haven't been there before; but there's no evidence to support that claim with 2015 Kentucky

In no way has this team shown a tendency to wilt or get the jitters when a game was tight

It's remarkable even that when the going gets tight these guys clamp down and dig in even harder. We've had several games where the final score was not indicative of how close the actual game was because Kentucky came sprinting strong and confident to the end with an opponent that was spent

The best predictor of what will happen next with an individual person is what they have done in similar circumstance before

This team wins when things get tight

This whole losing a game thing goes into the same category as "You can't win a title with freshmen" etc. bunk that ignorant sports writers have propagated as truth for way too long

 

[UKWildcats#8]

I'd like to add UCONN last year was not decided to the last minute, but one could make an argument it was pretty much over with 1 minute to go with the way UCONN shot FTs with the ball and up 4.

The WVU loss was one where UK inexplicable got "blown out" yet somehow still had a wide open 3 (sound familiar in that game?) that someone missed with 20 seconds to go that would have cut the lead to 2 points.

 

[caneintally]

Originally posted by MdWIldcat55:
Was UConn in 2011 that close before a couple of Lamb late 3s? I had blocked it out. I'll take your word for it.

LOL man we are just alike when it comes to that . I have blocked both UCONN games out of my mind totally. I honestly hate when people even bring those games up.

 

[Chuckinden]

The past is not always indicative of the future.

 

[BoulderCat_rivals187983]

Those were past teams. Thing is, this team has done it several times already this season. Cal hoped they would, they did, and they came through. Granted the pressure of the NCAAT is like no other for a college team, but that's true for the other guys as well. I also think they discount that playing for UK is a pressure cooker anyway. Expectations are always high, and they certainly have been this year. The Cat's have already been playing with pressure to win every game, at least the last 3rd of the season or so, to keep the winning streak alive. Sure, when it gets inside the last minute a player on any team might make a critical mistake, but I think Cal has a great sense of who to have in at that time. If that last minute decided game comes, and it probably will I'll be nervous, but it won't be from a lack of confidence Cal and these guys can get it done.

 

[Catlogic15]

I've said it before. If this team somehow wins the SEC Tournament without injury, they will be locked and loaded for the NCAA.
We'll see a different, better, team.

 

[UKWildcats#8]

Originally posted by catlogic15:
I've said it before. If this team somehow wins the SEC Tournament without injury, they will be locked and loaded for the NCAA.
We'll see a different, better, team.

We certainly saw that in 2012. They kicked it into a higher gear. I feel this team will as well. We saw a glimpse of that against Arkansas.

 

[Mojocat_rivals48469]

So you're saying he's due for a loss? heh.

Winning close games is another way to determine how good a coach someone is. If it's 68-68 with 2 minutes to go, who the favorite was, who had the better team, who had the most talent, all that is out the window. What matters is who can get his kids to execute the best down the stretch. If you look at the top coaches today, and look at their record in close games (I think that's defined as within so many points in the last 5 minutes of play), almost all of them have a winning percentage somewhere in the low to mid 60s. The one exception is Pitino, who is right above or below 50%, I don't remember which.....

 

[SuporChin]

I'm not sure I understand any of this they need to lose a game stuff. Critics say this as if these kids have never lost a game before in their lives. This team thrives on adversity and I think we've seen that a few times throughout this season. A number of this years team have already experienced pressure cooker situations in last years tournament, so why would they get nervous down the stretch of a close game this year? If that were to happen, that would have happened last year when they were a lamb, not this year when they're a lion ready to hunt.

 

[Catapult_rivals218351]

I think the real danger is the team thinking they can turn it on anytime when they need to instead of trying to bury teams from the start. Not sure how real that is with this bunch, but the Georgia game does make me wonder just a bit.