Calling it now..
- Thread starter mikewebb68
- Start date
Huh? They improved to 16-0 this evening. You didn't think that I meant the lolIllini were going to knock them off, did you?
If they do manage to beat us and go 17-0, it will be the best start in the entire history of Michigan basketball. That, the extra day of rest we will have going in, our hunger for a win, and the fact that we match up well translates into a win for us, imo.
That is pretty optimistic considering the way we have played the last 3 games and this being on the road. I do believe we have an upset coming here soon, but I am not sure it is this one.
Outside of MSU (and they have made many teams look bad at home), I don't believe we have played as badly as people have opined here.
The last two games were also very poor. The trend line is what is discouraging.
I in no way expect a victory on Sunday. Michigan is a significantly better team than we are. We played them really tough a month ago and could have come away with that victory, but playing them in Ann Arbor adds even more to the challenge of pulling off a huge upset.
That being said, it wouldn't completely shock me. You could argue that of any team in the conference, we have played Michigan the best over the past few years. We tend to match up really well with their style of play. If we come out and play our best game of the year and shoot the ball well, an upset is not impossible. I'd give us a better shot than most in this game, but I'm surely not predicting a victory.
That being said, it wouldn't completely shock me. You could argue that of any team in the conference, we have played Michigan the best over the past few years. We tend to match up really well with their style of play. If we come out and play our best game of the year and shoot the ball well, an upset is not impossible. I'd give us a better shot than most in this game, but I'm surely not predicting a victory.
I think we match up reasonably well with them on defense. We have enough quality wing defenders to cover their best scorers, and Teske, while much improved from last year, still isn't much of a scoring threat inside. So they don't stress us as much where we typically run into issues (PG and C). We will need to be disciplined, but if so generally we can contain them.
The problem comes with us scoring. Teske can guard Pardon, Matthews can guard Vic... we have trouble scoring to begin with, and then I'd say they are the 2nd best defensive team in the country after TT (note that KenPom has them 4th also after Duke and UVa), add on that our best scorers are mostly matched against their best defenders. They also rotate exceptionally well.
To beat them we'll need someone from our secondary options (multiple people?) to get hot and start raining in the 3s. Calling Taylor, Gaines, Turner...
Go Cats, here's to hoping.
Other than the fact that we lose a lot of games against decent-to-good teams. Other than that minor fact, yeah
We've had 6 losses. 2 were to top-10 KenPom teams (Mich. and MSU). 1 was to a top-20 KenPom team (Oklahoma), 1 was to a top-30 KenPom team (Indiana) and 1 to a top-40 Kenpom team (Iowa). Since there re 353 teams in KenPom, I would suggest that all these teams are better than "decent-to-good".
The only team that we have lost to outside the top-40 is Fresno State, who has won 10 of 11 (would have been 11 of 11 if they didn't lose their leading scorer for several weeks), They are KenPom 57 (we are 61), and were in the 40s when they played us. So one loss against a decent-to-good team, imo, We have also beaten Georgia Tech (KenPom 78), another decent-to-good team.
So I believe that we have lost a lot of games against excellent teams, not decent to good teams.
What I know about basketball, you could fit in a thimble. My casual observation is that we are no better than last year, continue to have to play a lot of good teams, against whom it is ok to lose, and that next year looks worse. I would love to be wrong
I think NU is better this year than last. But with the B1G also better the final W/L total may be worse, including the fact that this season there are 20 B1G conference games.
You know quite a bit, imo, don't seel yourself short.
Good that you brought up a comparison to last year, though, as it got me thinking about the numbers. We were 15-17 last year and 6-12 in the BIG, in what I believe you will agree was a FAR weaker conference last year. Our final KenPom was 85 We lost to KenPom #130, Rutgers, #119 Georgia Tech, #88 Iowa, by 20 to #71 Indiana, and to #70 Wisconsin, for a total of five losses to KenPom teams ranked 70 or lower.
We have not had ANY such losses thus far this year (not even close), and are currently at KenPom #61. Since amazingly there are no teams in our remaining schedule currently below KenPom 107, we would pretty much have to lose out to drop below our current KenPom ranking of 85. So statistically, barring an epic collapse, it would appear that we will indeed be better than last year. And, if we can somehow rally for the remainder of the year and go .500 in our remaining games, it is possible that even 18 wins gets us in the NIT given the fact the BIG is such an amazingly good conference, as our KenPom would likely be in the 50s or even higher...
Say hello to the Easter Bunny for me!
Geez, you have lost it lately. At least your new screen name for xyzbob is ok.
- Field Goal %
253rd
42.9 FG%
- 3-point %
215th
33.4 3P%
- Points Scored
256th
1142 Pts
- Total Rebounds
273rd
That was before the Michigan game. Admittedly, we played Michigan ok, without Law though. I have some hope against Rutgers this week although Rutgers is playing as tough as nails now.
Question, what place to we have to finish to avoid the first day of the BTT? IMO, that is or should be our focus at this point and I the goal isn't so lofty.
It was an okay prediction, not an impossibility, but what you are is an unabashed homer and you have to admit it — and don’t be ashamed of it, mike. There’s plenty of honor in loving a school and wanting it to be everything you long it to be. Sometimes it meets every expectation and more. And sometimes it’s NU men’s or women’s basketball which means it tears your heart out.
Either way you love something and it’s a fan site here and that’s what the best fans do — they love like hell and get their hearts broken. Then they wait for the next game and that anticipation and hope brings them right back to heaven again.
You’ve got nothing to apologize for, not that you were apologizing.
Have to finish 10th to avoid the first day of the conference tournament. NU is currently 12th.
It didn’t look to me like we had a chance in that game, with or without Vic.
Would like to try to take 2 of the next 4 to get to 3-7 with some whisper of momentum before we pivot into the easier back half of our schedule...
While I didn't expect NU to win at Michigan, I expect a healthy Law is worth 20 point when you add assists, rebounds, blocks, and defense to his scoring.
I think Michigan was on cruise-control much of that second half. I'm sure Law would have made some difference, but Michigan still would have put us away last night.
As I said, I didn't expect the win and I think Law is worth about 20 points when playing healthy.
Vic Law is NOT worth 20 points above an average CBB player per 100 possessions. We know this from advanced analytics.