Yep, you get a mulligan on this one, Mike.Made the prediction before Law was out, obviously.
Vic Law is NOT worth 20 points above an average CBB player per 100 possessions. We know this from advanced analytics.
Yeah the “add 20 points for Vic” analysis overlooks the rather significant fact that you have to subtract the points that his replacements scored.
Yea, replacing a 5th year Senior who is the teams leading scorer and best defender with a true Freshman who averages <2 points a game shouldn't be worth more than a couple of points. Geez.Right. It's a common misperception how much any one player is worth to a particular game.
Yea, replacing a 5th year Senior who is the teams leading scorer and best defender with a true Freshman who averages <2 points a game shouldn't be worth more than a couple of points. Geez.
Law probably scores 14 if he played. Nance probably still gets a bucket. And whoever Law guards gets ~4 fewer points. So I'd say Vic is worth 16. NU loses a close one at UM.He's worth more than "a couple of points" but he's not worth 20. That's Zion Williamson territory.
Law probably scores 14 if he played. Nance probably still gets a bucket. And whoever Law guards gets ~4 fewer points. So I'd say Vic is worth 16. NU loses a close one at UM.
Ok, I'm interested in the advanced analytics, feel free to share with us.Vic Law is NOT worth 20 points above an average CBB player per 100 possessions. We know this from advanced analytics.
Ok, I'm interested in the advanced analytics, feel free to share with us.
I don't recall saying anything about him being worth 20 points "above an average CBB player per 100 possessions." That looks like conversation you might be having with someone else? What I said was I think Law is worth about 20 points when playing healthy.
I'm say that I think when Law is playing healthy he brings about 20 points to the game between actual scoring baskets, assists, rebounds, blocks, and general defense and subtracting turnovers and fouls that lead to free throws.So are you saying that Vic Law should score about 20 points in a game when playing healthy? Or that NU would have a 20 point swing in game score in a game where a healthy Vic Law was playing versus one where he is not playing?
I'm say that I think when Law is playing healthy he brings about 20 points to the game between actual scoring baskets, assists, rebounds, blocks, and general defense and subtracting turnovers and fouls that lead to free throws.
That's my WAG based on nothing more than him averaging 17 ppg and 3 apg. So if someone wants to bring objective analytic evidence to the conversation, I'm interested in the facts, but not interested enough to do the legwork.
OK, let's say Vic is worth 20 points in the way you describe. When you weigh what his value is actually worth for a particular game, you must take into account the player(s) who replace him. NU isn't playing 4 on 5 if Law is out for the game.
I agree.
edit: and I'm curious where you locate the assessed value of players and how that value is measured.
Yeah. I was gonna say if you put Lebron in a college game, he might be worth 20 points over the course of a 70 possession game. Might. (It depends in part on what team you add him to)OK, let's say Vic is worth 20 points in the way you describe. When you weigh what his value is actually worth for a particular game, you must take into account the player(s) who replace him. NU isn't playing 4 on 5 if Law is out for the game. I think that is where the disconnect is here among those of us in the discussion.
Also, just to give at least some basis for comparison, though it's the NBA, LeBron is worth 7 points right now to the Lakers, meaning that a Lakers team with LeBron is 7 points better in a hypothetical game than a Lakers team without LeBron. LeBron is the most valuable player in the NBA by this metric; no other player is worth more than 5.
Styre's link was a good start, and now I see why posters might add extra language to change the context of my original statement. Interesting stuff.Do a google search if you want to read a little on it. Plenty of sites out there. Many of them are wagering discussions.
"Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"honestly without law we wern't that bad aside from the 10-0 run to start the game
"Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"
Missed by one! But NU softened ‘em up , I think.Michigan will not inprove to 17-0.
The Ringer published an article singing Zion Williamson’s praises on multiple fronts, including the fact that he’s current the only player (since 2010) to have a BPM over 20.Yeah. I was gonna say if you put Lebron in a college game, he might be worth 20 points over the course of a 70 possession game. Might. (It depends in part on what team you add him to)
I look at the BPM numbers for college. They can get a bit weird due to small sample sizes. But I think a +6-7 over 100 possessions for Vic would be a reasonable assessment. Which would mean that he makes 4-5 pts difference for us, being on the floor or not.
The other thing one needs to consider when calculating the impact in very simple terms (ie just difference in points, taking out Vic’s production and adding back that of his replacement) is that even if his sub is only scoring 2 or 4 or 6 points, someone else is taking all the shots that Vic no longer takes (prob a split across Turner Taylor Pardon etc). So then the real difference in production is how many points of offense Vic creates out of his 10-12 shots or whatever vs how many we get out of the replacement 10-12 shots (or maybe take one away if it results in an extra turnover). Maybe it ends up being 4-12 instead of 5-12, and we also lose out on a FT or two. And then you do the same analysis on defense in terms of quality of shots we give up on defense with the replacement player. That should get you intuitively, with very rough #s, to something like a 4-5 pt difference for Vic being on vs off the floor.
I think Zion could get to an 8-10 point difference if we added him to NU. Though his impact to Duke is less bc their replacement quality is still so absurdly good (still have Barrett and Reddish on the wing and Jones etc to take the marginal additional shots).